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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 21, 2022

[ Sunday, February 20, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 22, 2022 ]

DAY 144 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/22/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 19.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.035
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 109

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 395.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -140

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-22 07:00:05OBSERVATION2022144-14019.6199619.1100219.36499126.837016666670.0199999999999821.551.583.13TF-12.38004108.6199652395.65624664937 50.1838579505370.03471722447620516 1115127.5DRYL
2022-02-22 03:00:04OBSERVATION2022144-14019.6199619.1100219.36499126.837016666670.0199999999999821.551.583.13TF-12.38004108.6199652395.65624664937 50.1838579505370.03471722447620516 1115127.5DRYL
2022-02-21 11:00:02FORECAST2022144-14028.6711.7120.19121.73708020250.15351.68351.583.2635TF-3.33117.6752393.0193717534647.8450307802860.23893132096936161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-21 07:00:06FORECAST2022144-14028.1912.2120.2122.036336316810.21291.74291.583.3229TF-3.81117.1952393.1750445047147.9816419625540.22115421593571161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-21 03:00:03FORECAST2022144-14025.5412.2318.885122.789245474470.3311.8611.583.441TF-6.46114.5452393.5661841860848.3256948004740.13748340385271161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-20 23:00:02FORECAST2022144-14027.8712.1520.01112.106313446330.40861.43861.583.0186FF-4.13117.8752387.9457487362543.4911677079980.20973496986608161114126DRYL
2022-02-20 19:00:02FORECAST2022144-14027.6711.8419.755112.448059052070.461.491.583.07TF-4.33117.6752388.1279170553343.6442309367930.20277713318366161114126DRYL
2022-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2022144-14027.8311.9119.87112.165472988570.41231.44231.583.0223TF-4.17117.8352387.9772951914143.5176568239690.20833230467597161114126DRYL
2022-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2022144-14027.2412.0519.645114.297939803670.4751.5051.583.085TF-4.76117.2452389.1112605093444.4746154306280.18829167969063161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-20 07:00:06FORECAST2022144-14027.1611.7819.47115.202083983870.54291.63291.583.2129TF-4.84118.1652389.5901991654544.8816028435530.18566873977634161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2022144-14027.4612.4819.97115.753020067760.52111.79111.583.3711TF-4.54117.4652389.8814993786245.1299610216220.19562156617224161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 23:00:01FORECAST2022144-14027.6812.5120.095116.869312870640.42192.02191.583.6019TF-4.32119.6852390.4704762662745.6340162575110.20312172233065161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2022144-14027.6412.7320.185117.224181765680.4862.1061.583.686TF-4.36119.6452390.6573621533845.7944896291680.20174545914791161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2022144-14027.4612.4819.97117.50309791150.47492.16491.583.7449TF-4.54120.4652390.8041305856245.9206960204230.19562156617224161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2022144-14027.4712.6920.08119.339309974020.43462.07461.583.6546TF-4.53119.4752391.7677723476446.7532956220270.19595879920228161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2022144-14027.7812.9320.355119.614706860920.44271.99271.583.5727TF-4.22117.7852391.9119130893746.8784285994880.2065867622045161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 03:00:05FORECAST2022144-14028.0113.6820.845119.05090021420.38531.86531.583.4453TF-3.99120.0152391.6167126366646.622322178320.21468774084343161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2022144-14027.814.321.05119.950947019060.4341.8941.583.474TF-4.2116.852392.0877621127247.0312983800070.2072839394287161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-18 19:00:04FORECAST2022144-14028.1615.6421.9121.784182096870.51582.07581.583.6558TF-3.84117.1652393.0438819621547.8665276929390.22006880928045161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-18 15:00:01FORECAST2022144-14027.2317.0122.12122.167791966490.53482.15481.583.7348TF-4.77118.2352393.2433902140148.0416766878610.18796257042419161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-18 11:00:02FORECAST2022144-14023.317.1420.22121.484849343070.47322.04321.583.6232TF-8.7114.352392.8880695664747.729947939970.086078543176707161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-18 07:00:08FORECAST2022144-14023.7515.3919.57121.355395122670.50882.04881.583.6288TF-8.25114.7552392.8206477470247.6709049196840.095044684661015161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-18 03:00:06FORECAST2022144-14029.0514.521.775120.120193003280.3471.7771.583.357TF-2.95119.0552392.17621865147.1082830756550.253540400188271621151210DRYL
2022-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2022144-14028.513.7121.105120.996032946450.24921.70921.533.2392TF-3.5124.552392.6333699720247.5070801690080.23254759650398161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-17 19:00:02FORECAST2022144-14028.5313.2220.875121.743236139080.25761.91761.533.4476TF-3.47124.5352393.0225752580947.8478401876360.23366720997165161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2022144-14028.91421.45121.357238529940.20411.84411.533.3741TF-3.1124.952392.8216079784847.6717455791590.24771827461243161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2022144-14029.5714.1221.845120.948025424930.1981.7581.533.288TF-2.43124.5752392.6083384168147.4852032968760.274266138646841621151210DRYL
2022-02-17 07:00:07FORECAST2022144-14024.4214.1219.27119.302772348790.12191.51191.543.0519TF-7.58119.4252391.7486412414346.7366989639740.10963642322854161115127.5DRYL
2022-02-17 03:00:07FORECAST2022144-14029.8113.921.855121.019092704680.14371.77371.543.3137TF-2.19123.8152392.6453924530347.5175891493390.284105915133741621151210DRYL
2022-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2022144-14033.7620.6327.195117.767461165890.17321.86321.363.2232TF1.76130.7652390.9431451939946.0403816697040.464570285808631621151210DRYL
2022-02-16 19:00:04FORECAST2022144-14034.1119.1926.65117.964688123860.11511.83511.363.1951TF2.11130.1152391.0467956057546.1297132854650.481559681533991621151210DRYL
2022-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2022144-14033.9818.9526.465116.04327598710.08991.50991.352.8599FF1.98131.9852390.0348045064645.2609164639190.475243767619481621151210DRYL
2022-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2022144-14032.4121.1326.77116.431746056770.21621.52621.352.8762FF0.41130.4152390.239806844245.4363020917270.399911937342631621151210DRYL
2022-02-16 07:00:05FORECAST2022144-14032.7419.8626.3114.322796249110.08751.13751.362.4975FF0.74131.7452389.1244420478444.4857943037840.415535769392162114128DRYL
2022-02-16 03:00:05FORECAST2022144-14032.8119.8426.325114.052725695320.08751.08751.382.4675FF0.81135.8152388.981177223544.3643635065150.41886804972107162114128DRYL
2022-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2022144-14032.1118.6425.375111.542983983330.08331.04331.032.0733FF0.11140.1152387.6451192329843.2390933258190.38584545225875162114128DRYL
2022-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2022144-14031.516.8424.17113.135579180020.21361.26361.032.2936FF-0.5135.552388.493922608843.9524849422660.35771939502067162114128DRYL
2022-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2022144-14031.917.1424.52113.049298309290.21361.16361.052.2136FF-0.1137.952388.4480255234543.9137767150560.37608624895457162114128DRYL
2022-02-15 11:00:04FORECAST2022144-14033.8518.0825.965111.895398291970.00731.01731.072.0873FF1.85139.8552387.8332409677443.3967549689490.46893406851694162114128DRYL
2022-02-15 07:00:09FORECAST2022144-14033.8518.0525.95112.557246026080.00731.07731.062.1373FF1.85134.8552388.1860861113843.6931567983380.46893406851694162114128DRYL
2022-02-15 03:00:06FORECAST2022144-14033.0219.9326.475112.400220540550.00891.07891.052.1289FF1.02137.0252388.1024261387843.6227982903210.42889893690468162114128DRYL
2022-02-14 23:00:03FORECAST2022144-14032.5221.5827.05118.723039701940.88762.13760.993.1276TF0.52132.5252391.4448554417746.4735231137340.405103426859581621151210DRYL
2022-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2022144-14032.5922.8127.7114.77609149270.57261.60260.972.5726FF0.59135.5952389.3646816161844.6897563212060.408415878658481621151210DRYL
2022-02-14 15:00:04FORECAST2022144-14032.722.1727.435113.184526085490.34461.37460.982.3546FF0.7130.752388.5199554303743.9744470301430.41363431622476162114128DRYL
2022-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2022144-14028.1326.227.165111.754479477920.11961.17960.992.1696FF-3.87132.1352387.7580375188943.3336976463030.21898645931549161114126DRYL
2022-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2022144-14026.7126.0126.36113.649841648720.11651.21651.182.3965FF-5.29124.7152388.7672758425444.1833393377110.17133963436573161114126DRYL
2022-02-14 03:00:07FORECAST2022144-14026.0425.3325.685112.955786777280.03661.08661.222.3066FF-5.96141.0452388.3982707302843.8718322532760.15135048328744161114126DRYL