Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 17, 2022

[ Wednesday, February 16, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, February 18, 2022 ]

DAY 140 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/18/2022 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.46°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.46°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.345 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 89 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.11 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 111 in SWE DAY: 48 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 384.05 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 42.58 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -144 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-18 07:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	140	-144	30.45002	20.46002	25.45502	110.86099875	0.069999999999936	0.60999999999994	2.11	2.7199999999999	F	F	-1.54998	89.45002	48	384.05472164569	42.576690016295	0.34546496100578	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	140	-144	30.45002	20.46002	25.45502	110.86099875	0.069999999999936	0.60999999999994	2.11	2.7199999999999	F	F	-1.54998	89.45002	48	384.05472164569	42.576690016295	0.34546496100578	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.33	27.36	31.345	111.9460820932	0.02	0.56	2.11	2.67	F	F	3.33	94.33	48	384.64329166266	43.059309505067	0.57415272035278	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-02-17 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.24	22.48	28.86	111.56588191085	0.0252	0.5652	2.11	2.6752	F	F	3.24	94.24	48	384.43724838174	42.89008065509	0.56992219067115	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-02-17 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	34.34	22.42	28.38	111.59202328086	0.0257	0.5657	2.11	2.6757	F	F	2.34	93.34	48	384.45142164147	42.901711994173	0.5272542784291	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-02-16 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.41	24.7	30.055	107.94661575693	0.012	0.392	2.11	2.502	F	F	3.41	96.41	48	382.46585138141	41.285894299216	0.57790605590281	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-16 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.55	26.19	30.87	107.9374253717	0.0098	0.3898	2.11	2.4998	F	F	3.55	96.55	48	382.46082231876	41.281836466628	0.5844572033394	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.92	25.82	30.87	107.92383892493	0.0035	0.3835	2.11	2.4935	F	F	3.92	96.92	48	382.45338747606	41.275837786259	0.60165377478482	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-16 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.89	26.19	31.04	107.93862242712	0.0049	0.3849	2.11	2.4949	F	F	3.89	96.89	48	382.46147736506	41.282364998227	0.60026630751977	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-16 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	36.33	25.78	31.055	108.18462645986	0.0019	0.3919	2.11	2.5019	F	F	4.33	101.33	48	382.59605212939	41.391010984635	0.62048018359071	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-16 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.96	25.07	30.515	108.26947808833	0.0063	0.4063	2.11	2.5163	F	F	3.96	99.96	48	382.6424501114	41.428498368003	0.60350173151933	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 23:00:01	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	36.11	25.2	30.655	105.91222261191	0.0083	0.0583	2.11	2.1683	F	F	4.11	103.11	48	381.3497447051	40.3895990542	0.61041057255158	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	36.14	24.83	30.485	105.9304585646	0.0091	0.0591	2.11	2.1691	F	F	4.14	103.14	48	381.35977493334	40.397615836781	0.61178824128627	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.76	26.01	30.885	105.97751831547	0.0235	0.0835	2.11	2.1935	F	F	3.76	102.76	48	381.38565682223	40.418305431135	0.59423952565522	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.45	26.15	30.8	106.08735397559	0.0317	0.0917	2.11	2.2017	F	F	3.45	102.45	48	381.44605212657	40.466602354541	0.57978009635915	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.79	25.94	30.865	105.99682572641	0.0229	0.0929	2.11	2.2029	F	F	3.79	103.79	48	381.39627460362	40.426794451862	0.59563236128245	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	33.14	25.66	29.4	106.05510099801	0.0218	0.0818	2.11	2.1918	F	F	1.14	101.14	48	381.42831893801	40.452418888473	0.46995921494422	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2022-02-14 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	36.64	25.39	31.015	103.96091836685	0.0089	0.0689	2.06	2.1289	F	F	4.64	97.64	48	380.2737897246	39.533612410611	0.63453019044635	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-14 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	37.88	25.63	31.755	103.89135802259	0.0097	0.0497	2.06	2.1097	F	F	5.88	98.88	48	380.23533541615	39.50316536456	0.68878653992505	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-14 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	34.52	25.28	29.9	103.9877838333	0.0171	0.0571	2.06	2.1171	F	F	2.52	95.52	48	380.28863965724	39.545372854937	0.5358289236509	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-14 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.33	25.93	32.63	105.21829182577	0.0192	0.0692	2.06	2.1292	F	F	7.33	96.33	48	380.96772007092	40.08477274662	0.74733277946151	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-14 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	34.32	26.34	30.33	106.57094378698	0.0239	0.0839	2.24	2.3239	F	F	2.32	94.32	48	381.71176321081	40.679382859969	0.52630068665508	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-14 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.59	25.25	32.42	106.47364991544	0.0392	0.0892	2.27	2.3592	F	F	7.59	107.59	48	381.65833078083	40.636555498868	0.75718302327745	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-13 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.67	24.67	32.17	106.90706828737	0.0037	0.0537	2.28	2.3337	F	F	7.67	106.67	48	381.89625649768	40.827409172088	0.76017158064656	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-13 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.49	25.49	32.49	106.84993893058	0.0035	0.0335	2.28	2.3135	F	F	7.49	104.49	48	381.86491022991	40.802242337797	0.75341920659986	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-13 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.53	25.07	32.3	107.16656057177	0	0.08	2.32	2.4	F	F	7.53	104.53	48	382.03857990341	40.941760613971	0.75492846704766	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.32	23.73	31.525	106.63355668101	0	0.09	2.34	2.43	F	F	7.32	101.32	48	381.74614235171	40.706948908219	0.74694977171165	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-13 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.88	24.77	30.325	106.50625627939	0	0.06	2.36	2.42	F	F	3.88	96.88	48	381.67623920984	40.650907349038	0.59980353607435	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.9	24.78	30.34	106.37317949692	0	0.07	2.34	2.41	F	F	3.9	98.9	48	381.60313997576	40.592339305229	0.60072893820011	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	40.75	23.8	32.275	107.27726341512	0.0023	0.0423	2.35	2.3923	F	F	8.75	106.75	48	382.099268412	40.990563868158	0.79849593750952	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-12 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	40.64	24.58	32.61	106.69498731117	0.0036	0.0536	2.27	2.3236	F	F	8.64	106.64	48	381.77986702847	40.733998068262	0.79476861069583	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-12 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	36.02	24.6	30.31	107.00958687298	0.0036	0.0536	2.31	2.3636	F	F	4.02	104.02	48	381.95249594668	40.872578796358	0.60626930149502	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.74	25.13	32.435	106.11961497191	0.0231	0.0831	2.32	2.4031	F	F	7.74	107.74	48	381.46378827072	40.480790337015	0.76277004611586	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	40.52	25.21	32.865	105.02424133848	0.0231	0.0831	2.14	2.2231	F	F	8.52	104.52	48	380.8607703468	39.999613461263	0.79065616703059	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-12 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	40.75	25.5	33.125	105.23425193318	0.0237	0.0937	2.17	2.2637	F	F	8.75	105.75	48	380.97651403939	40.091778459044	0.79849593750952	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-11 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.58	26.83	33.205	105.21231526277	0.0307	0.0807	2.17	2.2507	F	F	7.58	110.58	48	380.96442691195	40.082149388162	0.75680804387783	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-11 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	40.15	25.89	33.02	105.29523592544	0.0309	0.0609	2.22	2.2809	F	F	8.15	110.15	48	381.01011274199	40.118549711144	0.77767530497697	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-11 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	39.9	27.19	33.545	105.5730623492	0.0309	0.0509	2.26	2.3109	F	F	7.9	110.9	48	381.16311341494	40.240557137772	0.7686509944509	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-11 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	38.27	27.78	33.025	105.20048090585	0.0461	0.0961	2.24	2.3361	F	F	6.27	108.27	48	380.95790588972	40.076954904485	0.70510239708796	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-11 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.81	26.86	31.335	105.20186154676	0.0461	0.0961	2.21	2.3061	F	F	3.81	98.81	48	380.95866666698	40.077560905738	0.5965602467653	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-11 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	35.33	27.26	31.295	104.3129073904	0.0464	0.0964	2.02	2.1164	F	F	3.33	96.33	48	380.46827194765	39.68775161666	0.57415272035278	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-10 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	38.93	28.34	33.635	104.93753828805	0.0069	0.0369	2.11	2.1469	F	F	6.93	100.93	48	380.81296745655	39.961575353056	0.73177786247196	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-10 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	37.12	24.8	30.96	105.07650155652	0.0069	0.0469	2.14	2.1869	F	F	5.12	103.12	48	380.8895784291	40.022544380666	0.65592750413211	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-10 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	37.16	24.81	30.985	104.84370232254	0.0069	0.0469	2.11	2.1569	F	F	5.16	105.16	48	380.76122003888	39.920416009725	0.65768940406578	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	34.48	28.71	31.595	104.44701068467	0.0212	0.0712	2.11	2.1812	F	F	2.48	97.48	48	380.54232144544	39.746507913983	0.53392474318423	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-10 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	33.22	30.27	31.745	104.1106583275	0.0146	0.0546	2.13	2.1846	F	F	1.22	97.22	48	380.35654582991	39.599170385527	0.47377267287092	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2022-02-10 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	140	-144	33.47	31.51	32.49	104.48564295886	0.0044	0.0444	2.2	2.2444	F	F	1.47	101.47	48	380.56364883348	39.763437535137	0.48570363470667	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L