Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 31, 2022

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DAY 123 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/01/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.86°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.81°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.34°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.109 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 202 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.59 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.23 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.72 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.95 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 107 in SWE DAY: 31 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 367.69 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 39.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -161 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-01 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	123	-161	21.86006	18.80996	20.33501	107.25757391304	0.59000000000003	1.23	2.72	3.95	T	F	-10.13994	201.86006	31	367.68688789815	39.437203555593	0.10932726273037	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-02-01 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2022	123	-161	21.86006	18.80996	20.33501	107.25757391304	0.59000000000003	1.23	2.72	3.95	T	F	-10.13994	201.86006	31	367.68688789815	39.437203555593	0.10932726273037	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-31 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	23.17	15.23	19.2	101.1501360525	0.3497	0.9897	2.72	3.7097	T	F	-8.83	203.17	31	364.08777254772	36.827527728254	0.13740168431377	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-31 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	24.5	14.95	19.725	102.74175383678	0.5292	1.1692	2.72	3.8892	T	F	-7.5	204.5	31	365.03109930156	37.503935347211	0.17055636978594	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-31 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	20.31	14.15	17.23	104.54931800834	0.8012	1.4412	2.72	4.1612	T	F	-11.69	200.31	31	366.09779942725	38.275275254474	0.081724921395935	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-30 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.46	13.57	17.515	104.88427929681	0.9083	1.6983	2.72	4.4183	T	F	-10.54	202.46	31	366.29493325444	38.418580084467	0.10163545764464	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-30 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.01	14.24	17.625	104.70953982213	0.8743	1.6643	2.72	4.3843	T	F	-10.99	202.01	31	366.1921152477	38.34380787408	0.093461724269413	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-30 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.1	15.83	18.465	104.30175312091	0.8131	1.6031	2.72	4.3231	T	F	-10.9	202.1	31	365.95199293175	38.169434420871	0.095056498053558	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-30 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.86	14.39	18.125	107.37880499348	0.8069	1.5969	2.72	4.3169	T	F	-10.14	202.86	31	367.75776580513	39.489389419228	0.10932607870858	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-30 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	22.19	14.39	18.29	107.86258086425	0.8618	1.7118	2.72	4.4318	T	F	-9.81	201.19	31	368.0403887671	39.6977861947	0.11597769589887	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-30 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	22.03	14.06	18.045	107.56286900474	0.8285	1.6785	2.72	4.3985	T	F	-9.97	201.03	31	367.86533735018	39.568651092781	0.11271773967959	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-29 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.57	15.04	18.305	107.84278671195	0.7911	1.6311	2.72	4.3511	T	F	-10.43	201.57	31	368.02883179115	39.689254810702	0.10371012111354	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-29 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.93	14.57	18.25	107.48252206198	0.7426	1.5426	2.72	4.2626	T	F	-10.07	201.93	31	367.81838680153	39.534047874197	0.11071368741941	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-29 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	22.32	14.84	18.58	107.10259723016	0.7305	1.5305	2.72	4.2505	T	F	-9.68	204.32	31	367.59624879194	39.370512977681	0.11867511358323	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-29 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	22.39	16.88	19.635	106.08959875185	0.5539	1.5039	2.72	4.2239	T	F	-9.61	204.39	31	367.00291051702	38.935191517512	0.1201457345822	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-29 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	23.98	16.6	20.29	106.34598761369	0.5512	1.5412	2.72	4.2612	T	F	-8.02	202.98	31	367.15322814883	39.045272653041	0.15703034416201	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-29 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	22.64	16.23	19.435	106.1239362251	0.508	1.428	2.72	4.148	T	F	-9.36	202.64	31	367.02304783234	38.949930521301	0.12550227829719	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-28 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	26.02	19.16	22.59	106.09585526236	0.3677	1.4077	2.72	4.1277	T	F	-5.98	207.02	31	367.00657979744	38.937876970522	0.21420605439904	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-28 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	23.29	19.19	21.24	105.44358890575	0.2598	1.3098	2.72	4.0298	T	F	-8.71	202.29	31	366.62372855406	38.658121716748	0.14019918711526	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-28 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	26.95	18.25	22.6	105.62388482557	0.2631	1.3531	2.72	4.0731	T	F	-5.05	204.95	31	366.72961765312	38.735406897118	0.24384030207278	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	26.62	18.24	22.43	104.4885856742	0.2783	1.2583	2.72	3.9783	T	F	-5.38	206.62	31	366.0620388318	38.24930470655	0.23307939383378	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-28 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	24.91	18.81	21.86	105.27598626508	0.3298	1.4098	2.72	4.1298	T	F	-7.09	200.91	31	366.52525080893	38.586307269966	0.18173032807024	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-28 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.93	16.3	19.115	107.10202882661	0.5068	1.5268	2.72	4.2468	T	F	-10.07	195.93	31	367.59591629181	39.37026842323	0.11071368741941	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	21.92	16.22	19.07	108.10264693946	0.5386	1.5286	2.72	4.2486	T	F	-10.08	192.92	31	368.18050703953	39.801287362486	0.11051469099285	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	23.35	16.52	19.935	106.68598609151	0.4893	1.3093	2.72	4.0293	T	F	-8.65	196.35	31	367.35241414834	39.191354546512	0.14161230683978	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-27 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	22.58	15.85	19.215	107.48997255611	0.4977	1.3977	2.72	4.1177	T	F	-9.42	194.58	31	367.82274088347	39.537256323079	0.12420180047915	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	28.06	19.38	23.72	106.57589919016	0.5242	1.4242	2.72	4.1442	T	F	-3.94	197.06	31	367.28793925038	39.144042387309	0.28191689664456	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-27 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	27.67	19.09	23.38	107.34076527731	0.696	1.556	2.72	4.276	T	F	-4.33	198.67	31	367.73552818586	39.473013015126	0.26821873200456	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-27 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	28.83	17.07	22.95	106.86578297382	0.7418	1.4118	2.72	4.1318	T	F	-3.17	195.83	31	367.45767752284	39.268652418219	0.30990960067979	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-01-26 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	28.59	20.52	24.555	106.05203890324	0.567	1.267	2.72	3.987	T	F	-3.41	197.59	31	366.98088141853	38.919070712942	0.30105504012593	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	27.92	20.62	24.27	104.87470911609	0.4748	1.2048	2.72	3.9248	T	F	-4.08	199.92	31	366.28930327006	38.414484132781	0.2769610646644	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-01-26 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	27.66	21.96	24.81	105.55878925653	0.4398	1.1098	2.72	3.8298	T	F	-4.34	194.66	31	366.69139214739	38.70749938587	0.2678719446314	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	28.8	21.18	24.99	103.60853809204	0.3948	0.8448	2.72	3.5648	T	F	-3.2	195.8	31	365.54322696189	37.873399354968	0.30879659182623	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-26 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	28.72	18.1	23.41	103.85171681394	0.3763	0.8463	2.72	3.5663	T	F	-3.28	190.72	31	365.68670337317	37.977191961335	0.30583715496003	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	28.76	18.13	23.445	103.89788473824	0.3763	0.8463	2.73	3.5763	T	F	-3.24	195.76	31	365.71393262358	37.996904018895	0.3073153064503	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-25 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	27.03	20.96	23.995	109.01344470129	0.7324	1.3024	2.73	4.0324	T	F	-4.97	179.03	31	368.71133191077	40.194492391994	0.24648874692755	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-25 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	26.78	20.94	23.86	109.50941927316	0.7924	1.3424	2.73	4.0724	T	F	-5.22	188.78	31	368.99987637089	40.408962173243	0.23826364274971	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-25 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	25.93	20.5	23.215	110.98868491342	0.7924	1.4924	2.75	4.2424	T	F	-6.07	182.93	31	369.85831701989	41.050088210327	0.21145365094606	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-25 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	26.97	21.51	24.24	108.25886359705	0.5932	1.1432	2.73	3.8732	T	F	-5.03	175.97	31	368.271639427	39.868669179389	0.24450097234702	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-25 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	27.11	21.6	24.355	108.32552894512	0.5932	1.1432	2.72	3.8632	T	F	-4.89	173.11	31	368.3105191018	39.897431797754	0.24915250406815	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-25 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	29.83	20.38	25.105	105.11779291266	0.389	0.839	2.72	3.559	T	F	-2.17	188.83	31	366.43226318247	38.518550757733	0.34795362077515	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-24 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	27.11	22.38	24.745	109.54298890943	0.7	1.18	2.73	3.91	T	F	-4.89	190.11	31	369.0193931373	40.423487289803	0.24915250406815	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-24 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	27.1	23.92	25.51	109.37186761152	0.6523	1.1423	2.73	3.8723	T	F	-4.9	190.1	31	368.91988899408	40.349457258317	0.24881870045593	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-24 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	28.42	24.69	26.555	108.97161951711	0.5866	1.1366	2.73	3.8666	T	F	-3.58	187.42	31	368.68698253743	40.17641758198	0.29485285002526	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-01-24 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	30.68	27.14	28.91	103.95052870731	0.2832	0.4732	2.73	3.2032	F	F	-1.32	189.68	31	365.74497746616	38.01938377965	0.38156004860773	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-01-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	30.75	29.04	29.895	102.77811686578	0.1811	0.3711	2.72	3.0911	F	F	-1.25	185.75	31	365.05260656753	37.519419459956	0.38437191084582	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-01-24 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	123	-161	30.04	29.03	29.535	101.66828188896	0.1189	0.2689	2.73	2.9989	F	F	-1.96	191.04	31	364.39528817786	37.047442877476	0.35615781376621	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L