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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 28, 2022

[ Thursday, January 27, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 29, 2022 ]

DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/29/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.923
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 225

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 99 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 360.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-29 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022120-16448.6399236.7742.7049699.204197916667008.198.19TT16.63992224.6399228360.23525900576 35.736849930970.9230776853798116 5121124WETL
2022-01-29 03:00:05OBSERVATION2022120-16448.6399236.7742.7049699.204197916667008.198.19TT16.63992224.6399228360.23525900576 35.736849930970.9230776853798116 5121124WETL
2022-01-28 11:00:01FORECAST2022120-16449.2734.6341.9599.3537853333330.00490.00498.198.1949TT17.27225.2728360.3255430556535.7997066548680.93131498595072165121124WETL
2022-01-28 07:00:05FORECAST2022120-16446.534.8540.67599.0803284166670.00480.00488.198.1948TT14.5222.528360.1604711330935.6848177625680.88950035374281165121124WETL
2022-01-28 03:00:05FORECAST2022120-1644434.8939.44599.0520110833330.00340.00348.198.1934TT1222028360.1433708584335.6729251618580.8383847523232164121123.5WETL
2022-01-27 23:00:02FORECAST2022120-16447.0634.6340.845100.110956008.198.19TT15.06217.0628360.7820103741736.118231966160.8991589873564165121124WETL
2022-01-27 19:00:01FORECAST2022120-16446.7134.6140.66100.05853066667008.198.19TT14.71216.7128360.7504335581336.0961583191890.89319702359589165121124WETL
2022-01-27 15:00:01FORECAST2022120-16446.734.4540.575100.01102533333008.198.19TT14.7216.728360.7218165238736.0761587306550.89302303397014165121124WETL
2022-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2022120-16446.6733.440.03599.655801333333008.198.19TT14.67216.6728360.5077214397835.9266858669350.89249984250537165121124WETL
2022-01-27 07:00:06FORECAST2022120-16446.533.4139.95599.218711583333008.198.19TT14.5216.528360.2440202868235.7429475484580.88950035374281165121124WETL
2022-01-27 03:00:07FORECAST2022120-16446.8733.4140.1499.314268916667008.198.19TT14.87211.8728360.3016961071735.7830995383190.89595322184783165121124WETL
2022-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2022120-16447.1633.3640.2699.566312008.198.19TT15.16214.1628360.4537553517535.8890510669240.90081711302947165121124WETL
2022-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2022120-16446.8933.1440.01599.514214666667008.198.19TT14.89213.8928360.4223326697235.8671453839550.89629409870178165121124WETL
2022-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2022120-16446.0433.1539.59599.710577333333008.198.19TT14.04212.0428360.5407477768435.949726113020.88108554979293165121124WETL
2022-01-26 11:00:03FORECAST2022120-16445.6932.5939.1499.093226666667008.198.19TT13.69212.6928360.1682597221635.6902349987870.8743876919533165121124WETL
2022-01-26 07:00:06FORECAST2022120-16445.232.4838.8499.410175333333008.198.19TT13.2203.228360.3595685508635.8234078926860.86457670983851165121124WETL
2022-01-26 03:00:06FORECAST2022120-16445.2932.0938.6999.3725100.018.198.2TT13.29208.2928360.3368419833535.8075764333590.86641690781529165121124WETL
2022-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2022120-16439.1830.8335.005100.53460533333008.28.2TT7.18197.1828361.0370285316536.2967151741490.70302158023073164111123WETL
2022-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2022120-16443.9930.8937.44100.29860933333008.28.2TT11.99206.9928360.8950032357236.1972669398910.83815349574384164121123.5WETL
2022-01-25 15:00:01FORECAST2022120-16442.7930.7136.75100.427883881590.01740.01748.28.2174TT10.79205.7928360.9728127936336.251735727650.80884725728749164121123.5WETL
2022-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2022120-16437.7531.1734.46100.20086533333008.28.2TT5.75196.7528360.836154757236.1560949502240.65477270531433163111122.5WETL
2022-01-25 07:00:04FORECAST2022120-16437.1531.1534.1599.89763775008.198.19TT5.15199.1528360.6534983113236.0284325275740.63369278716555163121123WETL
2022-01-25 03:00:05FORECAST2022120-16442.583136.7999.82596975008.198.19TT10.58204.5828360.6103068052235.9982735786760.80340368161699164121123.5WETL
2022-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2022120-16443.1730.3636.765101.082894666670.00020.00028.28.2002TT11.17204.1728361.3666673212636.5279887688790.81846026372099164121123.5WETL
2022-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2022120-16442.6930.4736.58101.131493333330.00020.00028.28.2002TT10.69202.6928361.3958633388936.5485033439520.80626667283581164121123.5WETL
2022-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2022120-16442.429.1735.785101.379297333330.00020.00028.28.2002TT10.4201.428361.5446774450836.6531453539890.79866397457433164121123.5WETL
2022-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2022120-16443.6830.837.24101.12176266667008.28.2TT11.68197.6828361.3900178556436.5443956157010.83087797277669164111123WETL
2022-01-24 07:00:06FORECAST2022120-16438.5530.3434.445100.8686955008.198.19TT6.55193.5528361.2379425904936.4376000342060.6821397301354163111122.5WETL
2022-01-24 03:00:08FORECAST2022120-16444.630.6537.625100.80200216667008.28.2TT12.6199.628361.1978483896236.4094662959650.85186680137554165121124WETL
2022-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2022120-16445.130.1737.635101.63965733333008.28.2TT13.1203.128361.7009309513636.7631586790440.86251181593073165121124WETL
2022-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2022120-16445.0931.638.345101.48003066667008.28.2TT13.09202.0928361.6051442122736.6957011238850.86230415400192165121124WETL
2022-01-23 15:00:03FORECAST2022120-16445.0231.6238.32101.698752008.28.2TT13.02198.0228361.7363818780336.7881385899920.86084454538227165111123.5WETL
2022-01-23 11:00:04FORECAST2022120-16442.1130.9336.52101.170927150560.06970.06978.28.2697TT10.11195.1128361.4195508552736.5651510503670.79088556359776164111123WETL
2022-01-23 07:00:09FORECAST2022120-16440.4831.5135.995101.444695827130.16480.16488.28.3648TT8.48187.4828361.5839356808836.6807723711220.74400127963267164112126WETL
2022-01-23 03:00:09FORECAST2022120-16440.5431.5536.045101.251474479060.16480.16488.198.3548TT8.54188.5428361.4679274921936.5991606354760.7458189829666164112126WETL
2022-01-22 23:00:04FORECAST2022120-16445.2531.2938.2799.112872008.28.2TT13.25199.2528360.1801220371735.6984863324140.86560116954976165121124WETL
2022-01-22 19:00:04FORECAST2022120-16444.9630.837.8899.191428008.28.2TT12.96198.9628360.2275500850435.7314850978770.85958512384796165111123.5WETL
2022-01-22 15:00:04FORECAST2022120-16444.9930.8337.9199.24686008.28.2TT12.99196.9928360.2610113638435.7547741582850.86021579606388165111123.5WETL
2022-01-22 11:00:03FORECAST2022120-16443.4830.5437.0198.364157333333008.28.2TT11.48196.4828359.7276116237135.3843033868980.82607463040868164111123WETL
2022-01-22 07:00:06FORECAST2022120-16444.0431.3837.7198.3674540833330.00020.00028.198.1902TT12.04191.0428359.729606010235.3856855016240.83930762909253164111123WETL
2022-01-22 03:00:06FORECAST2022120-16444.0631.437.7398.1794554166670.00020.00028.28.2002TT12.06192.0628359.6158485318935.3068881680630.83976777768543164111123WETL
2022-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2022120-16445.131.5138.30599.715974666667008.28.2TT13.1200.128360.5440017663235.9519965463490.86251181593073165121124WETL
2022-01-21 19:00:03FORECAST2022120-16445.1531.5338.34100.07404133333008.28.2TT13.15199.1528360.7597763776936.1026887726250.86354692684808165121124WETL
2022-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2022120-16442.3931.9437.165100.518262666670.030.038.28.23TT10.39192.3928361.027196057236.2898265230880.79839866867294164111123WETL
2022-01-21 11:00:04FORECAST2022120-16434.8630.8732.865100.19310533333008.28.2TT2.86189.8628360.8314820879436.152826692420.55000491296561163111122.5WETL
2022-01-21 07:00:07FORECAST2022120-16431.7631.1131.435100.50528375632008.28.2TT-0.24175.7628361.0193870772436.2843559397320.43380523476054162111122WETL
2022-01-21 03:00:06FORECAST2022120-16431.9931.831.895100.73170008333008.28.2TT-0.010000000000002176.9928361.1555773534736.3798153013930.44235440604235162111122WETL