MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 21, 2022

[ Thursday, January 20, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 22, 2022 ]

DAY 113 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/22/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.653
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 88

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.51 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 103 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -171

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-22 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022113-17137.2300822.9130.07004103.4463154166702.5113.4315.94TT5.2300888.2300821356.4442924082 36.8728487009290.6529100846183116 31151212.5WETL
2022-01-22 03:00:04OBSERVATION2022113-17137.2300822.9130.07004103.4463154166702.5113.4315.94TT5.2300888.2300821356.4442924082 36.8728487009290.6529100846183116 31151212.5WETL
2022-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2022113-17141.4431.336.37104.687197333330.0082.51813.4315.948TT9.4492.4421357.2041241190837.3946986299350.803342138015841641151215WETL
2022-01-21 07:00:06FORECAST2022113-17142.4523.5332.99104.499995756320.00662.516613.4315.9466TT10.4593.4521357.0896479402237.315866694380.832507842016541641151215WETL
2022-01-21 03:00:04FORECAST2022113-17140.5424.532.52104.587340083330.0072.51713.4315.947TT8.5491.5421357.1430668964537.3526433959040.774926663735331641151215WETL
2022-01-20 23:00:01FORECAST2022113-17141.6726.3634.015105.6844640.00231.032313.4314.4623TT9.6789.6721357.8130490261437.8152802985340.81024014930071641141212WETL
2022-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2022113-17141.2628.1834.72105.6795440.00361.033613.4314.4636TT9.2689.2621357.8100486887937.8132027840490.797839398797211641141212WETL
2022-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2022113-17141.7628.6535.205105.726994666670.00541.035413.4314.4654TT9.7689.7621357.8389837128137.833240322530.812898451433021641141212WETL
2022-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2022113-17141.8228.6635.24106.411402208220.00811.038113.4314.4681TT9.8289.8221358.2559420963438.1225171478970.814657819500111641141212WETL
2022-01-20 07:00:07FORECAST2022113-17141.4928.3634.925106.027533803430.00991.449913.4314.8799TT9.4992.4921358.0221690206337.9602076282140.804854457907271641141212WETL
2022-01-20 03:00:05FORECAST2022113-17141.8828.2635.07106.123818803510.01032.000313.4315.4303TT9.8894.8821358.080827305438.0009048339680.816406902650961641151215WETL
2022-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2022113-17141.5328.3134.92107.474437229810.01341.843413.4315.2734TT9.5393.5321358.9021343756938.5728049126050.806059220594331641151215WETL
2022-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2022113-17141.5828.2734.925107.561142221030.01431.964313.4315.3943TT9.5893.5821358.9547632421538.6095843400060.80755879766331641151215WETL
2022-01-19 15:00:01FORECAST2022113-17141.6728.234.935107.570145216420.01181.801813.4315.2318TT9.6793.6721358.9602272857438.6134037760460.81024014930071641151215WETL
2022-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2022113-17141.8628.2935.075107.302785554930.01721.697213.4315.1272TT9.8693.8621358.7979097214338.5000151643940.81582501861981641151215WETL
2022-01-19 07:00:06FORECAST2022113-17141.4628.4834.97106.526794094150.01141.571413.4315.0014TT9.4693.4621358.3261703727238.1713381698380.803947914176961641151215WETL
2022-01-19 03:00:06FORECAST2022113-17141.5428.0734.805106.545865374290.01031.610313.4315.0403TT9.5494.5421358.3377752998738.1794083656230.806359703092861641151215WETL
2022-01-18 23:00:03FORECAST2022113-17142.2328.3435.285106.518680430090.00461.454613.3214.7746TT10.2397.2321358.3212330150638.1679049108480.826404207447671641141212WETL
2022-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2022113-17140.4128.5734.49106.2755761030.00291.362913.3214.6829TT8.4196.4121358.173251038738.0650685988220.770638503764371641141212WETL
2022-01-18 15:00:03FORECAST2022113-17141.2528.9735.11106.239159414330.00261.122613.3214.4426TT9.2597.2521358.1510756749938.0496692230480.797531019371551641141212WETL
2022-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2022113-17137.5428.4532.995106.479622727380.00231.082313.3214.4023TT5.5493.5421358.2974640495638.1513787961750.665339391288861631141210WETL
2022-01-18 07:00:07FORECAST2022113-17137.629.0333.315106.996055622020.00210.952113.3814.3321TT5.691.621358.611554125638.3700217919210.66772542218406163113127.5WETL
2022-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2022113-17142.0727.634.835107.054365464910.00270.992713.4514.4427TT10.0794.0721358.6469917953338.3947261325480.821877654828791641141212WETL
2022-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2022113-17141.627.7934.695107.966840807510.00541.035413.6714.7054TT9.694.621359.2008633722138.7817824336280.80815664244921641141212WETL
2022-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2022113-1714228.4135.205107.768226539960.0061.06613.7214.786TT109421359.0804139949738.6974594014740.819874157014531641141212WETL
2022-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2022113-17141.262633.63108.29826032320.00791.037913.714.7379TT9.2693.2621359.401717083238.9225807172820.797839398797211641141212WETL
2022-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2022113-17141.7626.734.23107.913924556460.00031.060313.6514.7103TT9.7694.7621359.1687783148938.7593124461110.812898451433021641141212WETL
2022-01-17 07:00:08FORECAST2022113-17136.7826.3331.555108.145026753310.00460.904613.714.6046TT4.7885.7821359.3088723201738.8574676097650.634566291023163113127.5WETL
2022-01-17 03:00:07FORECAST2022113-17142.9128.135.505107.4412610064900.6713.7214.39TT10.9194.9121358.8819937488338.5587339608960.84481844299703164113129WETL
2022-01-16 23:00:04FORECAST2022113-17141.2327.8734.55110.041090691160.01180.531813.7414.2718TT9.2393.2321360.4551652738139.6648795319910.79691341912506164113129WETL
2022-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2022113-17140.7927.6634.225110.802275638820.01460.674613.6214.2946TT8.7991.7921360.9137999291839.9900703416070.78304431596304164113129WETL
2022-01-16 15:00:03FORECAST2022113-17140.8427.7234.28110.391520624090.01460.754613.6114.3646TT8.8491.8421360.6664189971139.8145144311370.78464733624154164113129WETL
2022-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2022113-17142.7331.0836.905109.641365959650.00440.774413.6114.3844TT10.7393.7321360.2139649141439.4943511509260.84007406719451164113129WETL
2022-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2022113-17142.7831.136.94109.568781222950.00440.514413.614.1144TT10.7890.7821360.1701398335339.4634032544590.84140134203461164113129WETL
2022-01-16 03:00:07FORECAST2022113-17142.4629.5335.995109.888649165480.00490.514913.5914.1049TT10.4686.4621360.3632084817739.5998261890.83278196308659164113129WETL
2022-01-15 23:00:05FORECAST2022113-17143.6733.3738.52109.641736918160.00560.165613.5613.7256TT11.6792.6721360.2141888700439.4945093302750.86381959703495165112127WETL
2022-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2022113-17144.7731.8938.33109.4917878938400.0813.4813.56TT12.7795.7721360.1236441093239.4305816563730.8884025572639165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2022113-17144.8531.7938.32109.8783147373100.0813.5913.67TT12.8597.8521360.3569731903939.5954169179990.89005816097959165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 11:00:05FORECAST2022113-17144.2231.2437.73109.418390560340.00150.401513.5813.9815TT12.2294.2221360.0793115147539.3992987400190.87653796809734165112127WETL
2022-01-15 07:00:08FORECAST2022113-17142.9832.0437.51110.744083323150.03770.737713.514.2377TT10.9885.9821360.8787687698639.9651884382060.84663819254751164113129WETL
2022-01-15 03:00:09FORECAST2022113-17143.132.2537.675110.387749881530.03770.737713.4614.1977TT11.192.121360.6641468374539.8129036323270.849724833431891651131210.5WETL
2022-01-14 23:00:05FORECAST2022113-17145.5934.0339.81109.708892554830.0090.18913.5113.699TT13.5998.5921360.2547287450139.5231473282550.90454484212827165112127WETL
2022-01-14 19:00:04FORECAST2022113-17145.3735.7440.555109.407739114160.00220.132213.4413.5722TT13.37100.3721360.0728772666839.3947594180770.90039246849473165112127WETL
2022-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2022113-17145.4535.7740.61109.807527006690.00220.132213.5713.7022TT13.4598.4521360.3142589157239.5652177167840.90191738490189165112127WETL
2022-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2022113-17134.6932.4233.555110.560506064130.00490.134913.5313.6649TT2.6979.6921360.7682232607239.8867173355620.54594749873934163112125WETL
2022-01-14 07:00:09FORECAST2022113-17133.232.2532.725111.312253413080.00490.204913.7313.9349TT1.273.221361.2205797385640.2082767098770.48105630529462162112124WETL
2022-01-14 03:00:10FORECAST2022113-17133.2332.3232.775111.31717330430.00370.203713.7513.9537TT1.2373.2321361.2235373900740.2103831132420.48236366139868162112124WETL