Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 17, 2022

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DAY 109 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/18/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.35°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.39°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.87°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.865 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 42 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.28 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.28 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 107 in SWE DAY: 17 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.17 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 38.13 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -175 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-18 07:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	109	-175	43.35008	30.39008	36.87008	107.36034958333	0	0	15.28	15.28	T	T	11.35008	42.35008	17	355.17128899394	38.131313748353	0.86545266515022	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-18 03:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	109	-175	43.35008	30.39008	36.87008	107.36034958333	0	0	15.28	15.28	T	T	11.35008	42.35008	17	355.17128899394	38.131313748353	0.86545266515022	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-17 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	43.79	33.33	38.56	107.59497466667	0.0855	0.0855	15.28	15.3655	T	T	11.79	42.79	17	355.31589951939	38.230205207452	0.87609139627046	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-17 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	40.4	33.56	36.98	107.98311558333	0.1578	0.1578	15.28	15.4378	T	T	8.4	39.4	17	355.5549399781	38.39393017988	0.77832784411404	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-17 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	40.58	33.38	36.98	107.88908891667	0.1421	0.1421	15.28	15.4221	T	T	8.58	39.58	17	355.49705434466	38.354253305804	0.78442075418814	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-16 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.19	33.74	37.465	109.38681267987	0.1449	0.1549	15.28	15.4349	T	T	9.19	39.19	17	356.41745626573	38.987369524376	0.8043343263603	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-16 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.23	32.85	37.04	109.58839385071	0.0859	0.0959	15.28	15.3759	T	T	9.23	39.23	17	356.54106758564	39.072762938527	0.80559998773154	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.15	32.98	37.065	109.5613264038	0.106	0.116	15.28	15.396	T	T	9.15	39.15	17	356.52447327119	39.061294187008	0.80306368596175	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-16 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.02	33.4	37.21	108.73611705516	0.108	0.118	15.28	15.398	T	T	9.02	39.02	17	356.01801191044	38.712016216841	0.79889980678676	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-16 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.38	33.18	37.28	108.29370931728	0.0987	0.0987	15.28	15.3787	T	T	9.38	36.38	17	355.74605256008	38.525059606713	0.81030175744642	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-16 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	37.78	33.13	35.455	108.65079995948	0.087	0.097	15.28	15.377	T	T	5.78	31.78	17	355.96558909194	38.675946012885	0.67939064683081	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-15 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.34	33.91	38.125	109.62913857428	0.0711	0.0811	15.28	15.3611	T	T	10.34	34.34	17	356.56604491473	39.090028348839	0.83871456707334	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-15 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.65	32.97	37.81	109.74497696936	0.0176	0.0276	15.28	15.3076	T	T	10.65	34.65	17	356.6370420441	39.13912396555	0.84726502980051	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.77	32.3	37.035	109.85659231198	0.0271	0.0371	15.28	15.3171	T	T	9.77	33.77	17	356.70543111458	39.186443121423	0.82219594724941	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-15 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.64	32.35	36.995	109.47403607053	0.024	0.034	15.28	15.314	T	T	9.64	33.64	17	356.47095017247	39.024313657277	0.81828443510998	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-15 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	43	32.53	37.765	108.84328077909	0.0125	0.0225	15.28	15.3025	T	T	11	35	17	356.08384222614	38.757333620317	0.8565518069533	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-15 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	43.08	32.68	37.88	108.76874492935	0.0105	0.0205	15.28	15.3005	T	T	11.08	35.08	17	356.03805700131	38.725812607118	0.85861996192195	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-14 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.53	31.78	37.155	110.33274677187	0.0627	0.0627	15.28	15.3427	T	T	10.53	32.53	17	356.9969632938	39.38845554942	0.84399142103363	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-14 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.84	32.15	36.995	110.37306816714	0.0281	0.0281	15.28	15.3081	T	T	9.84	31.84	17	357.02163443869	39.405573195047	0.8242800302318	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-14 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	40.54	34.85	37.695	110.2868968992	0.0695	0.0795	15.28	15.3595	T	T	8.54	30.54	17	356.96890641126	39.368992977599	0.78307521489258	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-14 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	36.87	33.91	35.39	110.29265972991	0.0367	0.0467	15.28	15.3267	T	T	4.87	25.87	17	356.97243303602	39.371439089801	0.64117949421685	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-01-14 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	36.59	34.13	35.36	110.01785392566	0.07	0.08	15.28	15.36	T	T	4.59	23.59	17	356.80420526452	39.254832934852	0.62910966032225	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-01-14 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42	34.06	38.03	110.0583618408	0.0947	0.1047	15.28	15.3847	T	T	10	25	17	356.8290103599	39.272016337484	0.82898539568657	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-13 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.57	34.07	38.32	113.25535068246	0.1695	0.1695	14.89	15.0595	T	T	10.57	20.57	17	358.77866491661	40.633603512514	0.8450877105634	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-13 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.63	34.25	38.44	113.29745965381	0.0634	0.0734	14.89	14.9634	T	T	10.63	19.63	17	358.80423919868	40.651608814227	0.84672260721973	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-13 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.79	32.04	37.415	113.17314933333	0.0242	0.0342	14.89	14.9242	T	T	10.79	18.79	17	358.72873321942	40.598460494798	0.85102640083912	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-13 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.61	34.19	37.9	113.54462675353	0.0913	0.1113	14.89	15.0013	T	T	9.61	13.61	17	358.95429746874	40.757331727665	0.81737420744546	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-13 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.63	35.58	39.105	113.14845554094	0.1157	0.1157	15.08	15.1957	T	T	10.63	16.63	17	358.7137313931	40.587904688456	0.84672260721973	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-13 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	43.43	33.5	38.465	113.36774381376	0.1146	0.1146	15.2	15.3146	T	T	11.43	26.43	17	358.84691918644	40.681665602685	0.86743047278972	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-01-12 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.97	32.64	37.305	263.65428540842	0.1021	0.1021	13.13	13.2321	T	T	9.97	20.97	17	434.7030412778	114.61131971297	0.82810931929292	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.01	34.03	38.02	263.43914842274	0.1021	0.1021	13.15	13.2521	T	T	10.01	17.01	17	434.61383826511	114.4942994453	0.82927678687083	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	42.78	35.12	38.95	262.22883733333	0.061	0.061	13.11	13.171	T	T	10.78	26.78	17	434.11109318123	113.83644723842	0.85075979608352	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-12 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	40.75	33.67	37.21	261.99716848086	0.149	0.149	13.16	13.309	T	T	8.75	26.75	17	434.01468505711	113.71061856408	0.79008513518283	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	40.76	33.67	37.215	262.46857591667	0.149	0.149	13.35	13.499	T	T	8.76	16.76	17	434.21079978271	113.96669026661	0.79041559268091	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	38.93	32.84	35.885	262.37176169215	0.2808	0.2808	13.85	14.1308	T	T	6.93	18.93	17	434.17054232793	113.91409006541	0.72505106664627	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-11 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.45	31.92	36.685	295.46525333333	0.0316	0.0316	12.69	12.7216	T	T	9.45	24.45	17	447.3706700566	132.18248836218	0.81247182617673	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-11 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	40.99	32.25	36.62	295.67746933333	0.0408	0.0408	12.7	12.7408	T	T	8.99	23.99	17	447.45178781224	132.301412269	0.79793148148078	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-11 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41	32.25	36.625	295.710488	0.0408	0.0408	12.99	13.0308	T	T	9	21	17	447.46440498554	132.3199175609	0.79825456554867	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-11 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.02	33.89	37.455	295.42682266667	0.0543	0.0743	13.02	13.0943	T	T	9.02	18.02	17	447.35597558546	132.16095446816	0.79889980678676	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-11 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.64	33.85	37.745	295.18553733333	0.0254	0.0454	13.19	13.2354	T	T	9.64	13.64	17	447.26368418189	132.02577094492	0.81828443510998	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-11 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	41.65	33.85	37.75	294.689656	0.0266	0.0466	13.13	13.1766	T	T	9.65	25.65	17	447.07383239184	131.74803387415	0.81858721395012	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-10 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	37.36	32.59	34.975	295.16170666667	0.7239	0.8839	13.15	14.0339	T	T	5.36	10.36	17	447.2545659058	132.01242098722	0.66196018555833	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-10 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	37.98	33.1	35.54	295.05937066667	0.6701	0.8301	13.01	13.8401	T	T	5.98	11.98	17	447.21540303025	131.95509537054	0.6875568900735	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-10 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	38.15	34.07	36.11	295.54841866667	0.6243	0.7843	13.18	13.9643	T	T	6.15	7.15	17	447.40246450598	132.22909089231	0.69442676756211	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	36.7	32.86	34.78	297.00326249187	0.6055	1.3155	12.91	14.2255	T	T	4.7	10.7	17	447.95757227049	133.04486042227	0.63386730202137	16	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-10 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	35.87	33.82	34.845	297.10360291306	0.4393	1.1493	12.78	13.9293	T	T	3.87	9.87	17	447.9957824284	133.10116104933	0.59751098802565	16	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-01-10 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	109	-175	36.04	35.61	35.825	296.0103131042	0.2213	0.9313	12.69	13.6213	T	T	4.04	20.04	17	447.57892646736	132.48797816244	0.60503800532297	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L