MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 16, 2022

[ Saturday, January 15, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, January 17, 2022 ]

DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2022 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.980
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 108 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-17 07:00:06OBSERVATION2022108-17649.1937.3400643.26503108.449586250016.1316.13TT17.1920.1916354.92033834661 38.49096384540.9795652493753616 5111123.5WETL
2022-01-17 03:00:05OBSERVATION2022108-17649.1937.3400643.26503108.449586250016.1316.13TT17.1920.1916354.92033834661 38.49096384540.9795652493753616 5111123.5WETL
2022-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2022108-17647.5837.5442.56109.298845333330.00530.005316.1316.1353TT15.5818.5816355.4439092606538.8496088629550.96684064222443165111123.5WETL
2022-01-16 07:00:05FORECAST2022108-17645.2637.0641.16108.798324916670.00310.003116.1316.1331TT13.2616.2616355.1354735137938.6381446367880.9377421327153165111123.5WETL
2022-01-16 03:00:06FORECAST2022108-17644.1234.0539.085108.943956916670.00670.006716.1316.1367TT12.1215.1216355.2252567872638.6996450711430.91754837315113165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2022108-17644.0733.5738.82110.291246666670.00250.012516.1316.1425TT12.0713.0716356.0542985527139.2696724684040.9165615819571165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 19:00:01FORECAST2022108-17643.9733.8338.9110.347498666670.0040.01416.1316.144TT11.9712.9716356.0888510173939.2935140128570.91456150335912165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 15:00:01FORECAST2022108-17644.1333.1338.63110.358486666670.00350.013516.1316.1435TT12.1313.1316356.0955997563139.2981714977660.91774467628502165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2022108-17643.9733.6838.825109.960841333330.00260.012616.1316.1426TT11.9712.9716355.8512493037839.1297027629610.91456150335912165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 07:00:07FORECAST2022108-17644.3934.1739.28109.515945918170.00260.012616.1316.1426TT12.3913.3916355.5775712963738.9414140678090.92272624496176165111123.5WETL
2022-01-15 03:00:07FORECAST2022108-17644.4634.0339.245109.447763524560.00110.011116.1316.1411TT12.4613.4616355.5356014692738.912576434170.92402759256857165111123.5WETL
2022-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2022108-17644.3234.5139.415110.854499417260.00020.000216.1316.1302TT12.3211.3216356.4000506182339.5085492035720.92140809060766165111123.5WETL
2022-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2022108-17644.2832.8338.555110.970790666670016.1316.13TT12.2811.2816356.4713742842739.5579102543590.9206472722232165111123.5WETL
2022-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2022108-17643.8633.4838.67110.936227565870.01010.010116.1316.1401TT11.8610.8616356.4501782681939.5432380922540.91232032036785165111123.5WETL
2022-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2022108-17643.532.8338.165110.736170396580.010.0116.1316.14TT11.59.516356.3274555199839.4583378314410.90467999617086165111123.5WETL
2022-01-14 07:00:08FORECAST2022108-17642.9431.9637.45110.436436592320.0130.01316.1316.143TT10.947.9416356.1434705500839.3312158031740.89184165472205165111123.5WETL
2022-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2022108-17642.7331.8637.295110.61481384080.01290.012916.1316.1429TT10.733.7316356.2529803558439.4068571022910.88672088031757165111123.5WETL
2022-01-13 23:00:03FORECAST2022108-17643.0931.4737.28113.808632015790.00440.004415.7415.7444TT11.09-0.9116358.2053631669340.7668623627470.89539622174678165111123.5WETL
2022-01-13 19:00:02FORECAST2022108-17642.131.2836.69113.938688369170.01340.013415.7415.7534TT10.1-1.916358.2845315682340.8224695898480.87033167684301165111123.5WETL
2022-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2022108-17641.8931.3636.625113.801597333330.00790.007915.7415.7479TT9.89-3.1116358.201080242540.7638550981210.86452153046523165111123.5WETL
2022-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2022108-17638.1931.2734.73114.101516086870.00790.017915.7415.7579TT6.19-6.8116358.3836118191140.8921134492480.73358432349526164111123WETL
2022-01-13 07:00:05FORECAST2022108-17638.2429.3233.78113.862128874270.00120.001215.9315.9312TT6.24-4.7616358.2379311457440.7897334837690.73569710483169164111123WETL
2022-01-13 03:00:05FORECAST2022108-17641.4929.1135.3113.984219813760016.0516.05TT9.494.4916358.3122414634740.8419412929340.85296868964814165111123.5WETL
2022-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2022108-17640.828.3934.595264.133712075090.00070.000713.9813.9807TT8.8-0.216434.28108033726114.708273833460.83153292075746164111123WETL
2022-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2022108-17640.6629.1334.895263.978708422740.00090.00091414.0009TT8.66-4.3416434.216649368114.623950275810.82695050108937164111123WETL
2022-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2022108-17642.1231.2636.69262.940214666670.00190.001913.9613.9619TT10.125.1216433.78431971517114.059342144940.87087591107599165111123.5WETL
2022-01-12 11:00:03FORECAST2022108-17643.6432.7738.205262.602984480860.00150.001514.0114.0115TT11.646.6416433.64368379805113.876125566640.90770731635238165111123.5WETL
2022-01-12 07:00:07FORECAST2022108-17637.2832.4434.86263.076086583330.00060.000614.214.2006TT5.28-2.7216433.84094867144114.133178976080.69370439768585163111122.5WETL
2022-01-12 03:00:07FORECAST2022108-17645.2833.4239.35262.889947025480014.714.7TT13.281.2816433.76336411875114.032027814770.93805853193811165111123.5WETL
2022-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2022108-17644.0933.1438.615296.0940840013.5413.54TT12.094.0916447.03872308121132.365521223260.91695735473315165111123.5WETL
2022-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2022108-17644.2631.4937.875296.285526666670.00110.001113.5513.5511TT12.264.2616447.11206371258132.47283327610.92026478567253165111123.5WETL
2022-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2022108-17644.2933.4538.87296.321278666670.00110.001113.8413.8411TT12.291.2916447.12575615542132.492875788770.92083799569448165111123.5WETL
2022-01-11 11:00:04FORECAST2022108-17644.533.8439.17296.146618666670.0160.01613.8713.886TT12.5-2.516447.05885237329132.394967475350.92476371572939165111123.5WETL
2022-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2022108-17644.1933.7938.99295.9286760.01660.016614.0414.0566TT12.19-6.8116446.97532746303132.27281686080.91891513454997165111123.5WETL
2022-01-11 03:00:05FORECAST2022108-17644.1333.7938.96295.433013333330.01730.027313.9713.9973TT12.135.1316446.78519617893131.995096819870.91774467628502165111123.5WETL
2022-01-10 23:00:03FORECAST2022108-17639.2732.2835.775295.496649333330.14710.167113.9914.1571TT7.27-5.7316446.80961971283132.030745515040.77724797012061164112126WETL
2022-01-10 19:00:04FORECAST2022108-17639.3132.0135.66295.396609333330.14790.157913.8614.0179TT7.31-4.6916446.77122252727131.974704282260.77878295428224164112126WETL
2022-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2022108-17638.3130.5434.425295.854333333330.14790.157914.0314.1879TT6.31-9.6916446.94682560984132.231155126250.73864061782166164112126WETL
2022-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2022108-17640.8933.9637.425295.700576809490.70680.706813.7614.4668TT8.89-5.1116446.88786060664132.144998150550.83443727505273164113129WETL
2022-01-10 07:00:08FORECAST2022108-17639.7233.0636.39296.610998751850.70960.709613.6314.3396TT7.72-5.2816447.23666845084132.655314907660.7941644913558164113129WETL
2022-01-10 03:00:08FORECAST2022108-17639.733.0336.365296.09526510420.70960.709613.5414.2496TT7.74.716447.03917566507132.366183230510.79342918535198164113129WETL
2022-01-09 23:00:04FORECAST2022108-17638.6631.4135.035300.090905826571.9781.97813.315.278TT6.660.6616448.56250805372134.609529361680.753101855524271641151215WETL
2022-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2022108-17638.3830.7134.545299.84999335211.43861.438612.8814.3186TT6.38-5.6216448.47109783643134.474055704860.741567224247351641141212WETL
2022-01-09 15:00:05FORECAST2022108-17638.3430.6334.485298.155923852350.85580.865812.5913.4558TT6.343.3416447.82672941077133.522192233240.73989695610395164113129WETL
2022-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2022108-17636.2833.7935.035296.399460313220.28230.492312.5913.0823TT4.282.2816447.15569414051132.536706419230.64708839988129163113127.5WETL
2022-01-09 07:00:08FORECAST2022108-17636.1934.2535.22296.841596286820.21410.424112.5312.9541TT4.19-4.8116447.32488879809132.784634049650.64276902404829163112125WETL
2022-01-09 03:00:09FORECAST2022108-17635.0434.0334.535296.838679593090.1360.27612.6612.936TT3.04-7.9616447.32377327299132.782998208950.58614201322515163112125WETL