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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 14, 2022

[ Thursday, January 13, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 15, 2022 ]

DAY 106 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/15/2022 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.877
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 111 in
SWE DAY: 14
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -178

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-15 07:00:06OBSERVATION2022106-17845.2499831.0899238.16995110.6641487502.4713.8716.34TT13.24998-37.7500214354.43997657752 39.2237982909210.8768994310405816 51151217.5WETL
2022-01-15 03:00:06OBSERVATION2022106-17845.2499831.0899238.16995110.6641487502.4713.8716.34TT13.24998-37.7500214354.43997657752 39.2237982909210.8768994310405816 51151217.5WETL
2022-01-14 11:00:01FORECAST2022106-17842.7433.4438.09111.607329333330.00392.473913.8716.3439TT10.74-40.2614355.0225304808639.6231164801310.819615697530131641151215WETL
2022-01-14 07:00:07FORECAST2022106-17841.1933.1337.16111.336981083330.00182.471813.8716.3418TT9.19-41.8114354.8556929979839.5085615786290.777038061200511641151215WETL
2022-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2022106-17837.2530.0433.645111.496945330080.00312.473113.8716.3431TT5.25-45.7514354.9544240736739.5763340156120.646837620934991631151212.5WETL
2022-01-13 23:00:01FORECAST2022106-17840.1929.8435.015114.730236867030.00142.081413.8715.9514TT8.19-50.8114356.9414588254140.9519781187010.7467803251561641151215WETL
2022-01-13 19:00:01FORECAST2022106-17840.5729.2734.92114.717653164880.00152.081513.8715.9515TT8.57-50.4314356.9337570400240.9466029429560.75852585859361641151215WETL
2022-01-13 15:00:01FORECAST2022106-17840.229.734.95114.708189333330.00092.080913.8715.9509TT8.2-50.814356.9279645920240.9425605407820.747093215284431641151215WETL
2022-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2022106-17840.1629.6334.895114.840336086870.00122.081213.8715.9512TT8.16-50.8414357.0088339465640.9990144764040.745840436571081641151215WETL
2022-01-13 07:00:05FORECAST2022106-17840.4828.9534.715114.549452874270.00192.271913.8716.1419TT8.48-48.5214356.8307873418640.8747714587060.75577099977231641151215WETL
2022-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2022106-17841.1929.1835.185114.630325147090.00232.392313.8716.2623TT9.19-42.8114356.8803016266340.9093050140540.777038061200511641151215WETL
2022-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2022106-17841.4829.2435.36264.763308075090.00230.322313.8714.1923TT9.48-46.5214433.29627979065114.7209564140.78541209292582164112126WETL
2022-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2022106-17841.5830.135.84264.587968422740.00220.342213.8714.2122TT9.58-49.4214433.22295510377114.6255815650.78825682517631164112126WETL
2022-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2022106-17842.9933.538.245263.911750666670.00140.301413.8714.1714TT10.99-42.0114432.9398638995114.257917415110.82597261455601164112126WETL
2022-01-12 11:00:03FORECAST2022106-17842.8133.4538.13263.562384480860.00140.351413.8714.2214TT10.81-42.1914432.79341493679114.068064428360.82141011548993164112126WETL
2022-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2022106-17842.7833.237.99263.778717250.00120.541213.8714.4112TT10.78-44.2214432.88411364617114.185616215490.82064245685186164113129WETL
2022-01-12 03:00:06FORECAST2022106-17841.9933.9637.975263.879031025480.00121.041213.8714.9112TT9.99-49.0114432.92615384119114.24013398120.79968766776561641141212WETL
2022-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2022106-17842.1633.6337.895297.098146666670.00121.551212.213.7512TT10.16-46.8414446.27499511531132.587473952430.80431666034641641151215WETL
2022-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2022106-17841.534.0637.78297.209174666670.00121.561212.213.7612TT9.5-47.514446.31774902393132.649729826490.785982806558331641151215WETL
2022-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2022106-17840.6433.336.97297.384326666670.00151.851512.214.0515TT8.64-50.3614446.38517085874132.747953469810.760656821433811641151215WETL
2022-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2022106-17837.233.6935.445297.361858666670.00151.881512.214.0815TT5.2-53.814446.37652385464132.735352798580.645018510870511631151212.5WETL
2022-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2022106-17836.5532.3934.47297.014520.00161.641612.6114.2516TT4.55-53.4514446.2427847644132.540586520260.621082760390991631151212.5WETL
2022-01-11 03:00:05FORECAST2022106-17840.3131.4435.875296.689362666670.00511.265112.9214.1851TT8.31-48.6914446.11747938924132.358310634450.750521551883731641141212WETL
2022-01-10 23:00:03FORECAST2022106-17840.6130.6235.615296.062777333330.00521.20521314.2052TT8.61-48.3914445.87572111667132.00720433930.759744809602511641141212WETL
2022-01-10 19:00:03FORECAST2022106-17840.7132.0636.385295.954810666670.00291.012913.0614.0729TT8.71-48.2914445.83402497086131.946724449010.762777487327471641141212WETL
2022-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2022106-17840.7132.1736.44296.285106666670.00391.313912.9314.2439TT8.71-51.2914445.9615475003132.131764670360.762777487327471641141212WETL
2022-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2022106-17840.330.5635.43296.520275901450.0041.20412.7713.974TT8.3-51.714446.05227777366132.263544471920.750210907226621641141212WETL
2022-01-10 07:00:07FORECAST2022106-17834.8331.4433.135296.33286486310.00411.104112.7413.8441TT2.83-50.1714445.97997740086132.158524374770.555703477101631631141210WETL
2022-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2022106-17841.731.4436.57295.780114908180.00340.893412.8613.7534TT9.7-40.314445.76653418486131.848876703420.79164125917712164113129WETL
2022-01-09 23:00:04FORECAST2022106-17840.5831.636.09297.148405383990.00340.923412.5913.5134TT8.58-42.4214446.29434989468132.615654403090.7588309103963164113129WETL
2022-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2022106-17840.3531.6235.985297.255632830390.00340.923412.1713.0934TT8.35-47.6514446.3356352405132.675781708170.75176207781039164113129WETL
2022-01-09 15:00:04FORECAST2022106-17840.2232.1536.185297.030198502590.00610.876111.9312.8061TT8.22-38.7814446.24882414957132.549376818690.74771838544174164113129WETL
2022-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2022106-17839.6332.6536.14296.715147684480.05120.861211.9912.8512TT7.63-39.3714446.12741989981132.372763281670.72893934084532164113129WETL
2022-01-09 07:00:07FORECAST2022106-17839.6832.536.09297.096052145330.05120.871211.9212.7912TT7.68-46.3214446.27418845537132.586299564450.73055738340573164113129WETL
2022-01-09 03:00:09FORECAST2022106-17839.8332.9836.405297.196783317330.02140.951411.9412.8914TT7.83-49.1714446.31297804495132.642781427740.73538231647251164113129WETL
2022-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2022106-17838.3929.5333.96296.728553862170.00021.220211.7412.9602TT6.39-45.6114446.13258792487132.380277645730.687334348500321631141210WETL
2022-01-08 19:00:04FORECAST2022106-17839.2729.5334.4296.547055259270.00021.310211.8213.1302TT7.27-38.7314446.06260603899132.278552282140.717148491439761641141212WETL
2022-01-08 15:00:03FORECAST2022106-17838.731.3235.01296.496841819020.01961.319611.8413.1596TT6.7-43.314446.04323913808132.250411719170.69799156247681631141210WETL
2022-01-08 11:00:04FORECAST2022106-17839.831.2635.53297.003821880860.03350.953511.5712.5235TT7.8-43.214446.23866369314132.534588587870.73442085250747164113129WETL
2022-01-08 07:00:11FORECAST2022106-17840.0631.2635.66297.735119052220.03350.953511.6812.6335TT8.06-44.9414446.52011236335132.944718813710.74269432860425164113129WETL
2022-01-08 03:00:05FORECAST2022106-17841.2629.7635.51297.4850246184300.9311.5712.5TT9.26-39.7414446.42391927484132.804430615730.77907621720908164113129WETL
2022-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2022106-17841.432.4736.935298.423900055780.00041.490410.1911.6804TT9.4-44.614446.78472051034133.331238780030.783120426887521641141212WETL
2022-01-07 19:00:04FORECAST2022106-17840.7531.6436.195298.296569444510.00041.880410.212.0804TT8.75-47.2514446.73583893982133.259768203660.763984654426931641151215WETL
2022-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2022106-17840.8930.335.595298.919231726070.00041.880410.3312.2104TT8.89-46.1114446.97472550545133.609341549060.768183007534171641151215WETL
2022-01-07 11:00:04FORECAST2022106-17838.5130.1334.32300.7799699134500.5610.3510.91TT6.51-45.4914447.68635684915134.655088943750.69147897275651163113127.5WETL
2022-01-07 07:00:07FORECAST2022106-17835.633.3434.47303.2456443678601.1211.0912.21TT3.6-44.414448.62417706171136.043327652080.585272956458611631141210WETL
2022-01-07 03:00:08FORECAST2022106-17837.6236.7737.195304.0590708351701.0311.3312.36TT5.62-47.3814448.9322779275136.501931294550.6601925544071631141210WETL