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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 12, 2022

[ Tuesday, January 11, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 13, 2022 ]

DAY 104 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/13/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.883
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -99

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 5.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 12
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -180

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-13 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022104-18043.8499437.5600240.70498114.796358333332.03000000000015.180000000000111.0616.24TT11.84994-99.1500612355.14397130777 40.769234590170.8830654061599116 51151217.5WETL
2022-01-13 03:00:03OBSERVATION2022104-18043.8499437.5600240.70498114.796358333332.03000000000015.180000000000111.0616.24TT11.84994-99.1500612355.14397130777 40.769234590170.8830654061599116 51151217.5WETL
2022-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2022104-18043.1936.839.995264.426601333330.00833.158311.0614.2183TT11.19-99.8112431.89861617342114.205483195310.867923737139251651151217.5WETL
2022-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2022104-18042.5536.2939.42264.809238583330.19493.344911.0614.4049TT10.55-100.4512432.05987431248114.41344633910.852001648226871651151217.5WETL
2022-01-12 03:00:06FORECAST2022104-18038.7136.6737.69264.795353250.66733.817311.0614.8773TT6.71-104.2912432.05402523595114.405898235440.731005557618251641151215WETL
2022-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2022104-18042.1236.8739.495298.144849333331.15032.630311.0613.6903TT10.12-101.8812445.52390489141132.830657498250.840612156748391641151215WETL
2022-01-11 19:00:01FORECAST2022104-18041.8337.0439.435298.140913333331.15472.634711.0613.6947TT9.83-102.1712445.52238151292132.828449734710.832615990937681641151215WETL
2022-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2022104-18041.9737.0139.49298.196782666671.15842.638411.0613.6984TT9.97-102.0312445.54400359805132.859788409360.836507871890641641151215WETL
2022-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2022104-18041.6836.8539.265298.109534666671.1982.67811.0613.738TT9.68-102.3212445.51023625643132.810849219640.828380593024291641151215WETL
2022-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2022104-18041.2336.338.765297.714854666670.93532.825311.0613.8853TT9.23-101.7712445.35739086889132.589510897260.815268914561771641151215WETL
2022-01-11 03:00:05FORECAST2022104-18042.3836.8539.615297.455406666670.86293.062911.0614.1229TT10.38-100.6212445.25683247652132.444052175410.847565462963651641151215WETL
2022-01-10 23:00:03FORECAST2022104-18042.6536.3739.51296.906885333330.82823.108211.0614.1682TT10.65-101.3512445.04401505184132.136632345280.85457051015841651151217.5WETL
2022-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2022104-18042.9135.5739.24296.845166666670.72053.060511.0614.1205TT10.91-101.0912445.02005064183132.102051102780.861108880372261651151217.5WETL
2022-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2022104-18040.9235.1338.025296.935202666670.97833.188311.0614.2483TT8.92-103.0812445.05500898011132.152499289320.805884661807751641151215WETL
2022-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2022104-18040.8234.7537.785296.982263901450.98143.031411.0614.0914TT8.82-103.1812445.07327829615132.178869790430.802796727115481641151215WETL
2022-01-10 07:00:07FORECAST2022104-18041.9736.3739.17296.778980425160.77612.796111.0613.8561TT9.97-97.0312444.99434736627132.064968706320.836507871890641641151215WETL
2022-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2022104-18042.0936.2539.17296.421699291750.78422.924211.0613.9842TT10.09-95.9112444.85552341045131.864830188650.839796729530061641151215WETL
2022-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2022104-18041.1836.2238.7297.5955040.70132.571311.0613.6313TT9.18-94.8212445.3111404611132.522593282340.813774658475891641151215WETL
2022-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2022104-18039.4735.0137.24297.6761920.64972.099711.0613.1597TT7.47-99.5312445.34240996503132.567832734490.758280047793321641151215WETL
2022-01-09 15:00:04FORECAST2022104-18042.0534.2638.155297.496462750010.54981.759811.0612.8198TT10.05-93.9512445.2727496503132.467067979940.838705269819241641151215WETL
2022-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2022104-18039.8133.836.805297.4180560.76312.033111.0613.0931TT7.81-92.1912445.24235042643132.42311431270.769978260582961641151215WETL
2022-01-09 07:00:07FORECAST2022104-18038.8234.1536.485297.797049313770.77121.971211.0613.0312TT6.82-99.1812445.38923453695132.635599841220.735046572024121641151215WETL
2022-01-09 03:00:08FORECAST2022104-18039.6234.9537.285297.989060683190.88242.102411.0613.1624TT7.62-102.3812445.46359725616132.743278914920.763480374090391641151215WETL
2022-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2022104-18039.835.2537.525297.333650666670.88372.003710.9612.9637TT7.8-97.212445.2096187136132.375801244030.769638771954941641151215WETL
2022-01-08 19:00:04FORECAST2022104-18041.1835.2538.215297.306703259270.8762.07610.9613.036TT9.18-92.8212445.19916724675132.360696707910.813774658475891641151215WETL
2022-01-08 15:00:03FORECAST2022104-18039.535.0737.285297.244447508210.8762.09610.9613.056TT7.5-95.512445.17501881473132.325802512040.759325044575351641151215WETL
2022-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2022104-18038.2934.6936.49297.614364114170.55691.506910.9612.4669TT6.29-94.7112445.31845000803132.533167327450.715297535652991641151215WETL
2022-01-08 07:00:10FORECAST2022104-18038.5834.6236.6298.414779094630.55651.586510.9912.5765TT6.58-97.4212445.62834142651132.98208306510.726190307805831641151215WETL
2022-01-08 03:00:05FORECAST2022104-18038.534.536.5298.468726610440.55671.426711.0412.4667TT6.5-95.512445.64920527841133.01235081440.72320606444841641141212WETL
2022-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2022104-18038.3733.4835.925298.91656554551.48312.20319.8112.0131TT6.37-96.6312445.82229375251133.263668892120.718322985708071641151215WETL
2022-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2022104-18038.9333.4736.2298.62534470471.86892.61899.7912.4089TT6.93-97.0712445.70976011542133.100230752710.739056548063761641151215WETL
2022-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2022104-18038.3233.4735.895299.165103823311.86892.65899.8812.5389TT6.32-95.6812445.91826816887133.403184993450.716433893790091641151215WETL
2022-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2022104-18038.9232.2535.585300.953427246780.46631.22639.9311.1563TT6.92-92.0812446.60705555787134.407924002730.738693296941731641141212WETL
2022-01-07 07:00:07FORECAST2022104-18038.8231.8135.315303.448785701191.01742.037410.4112.4474TT6.82-90.1812447.56294955425135.812433567080.735046572024121641151215WETL
2022-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2022104-18041.5631.7336.645304.427692140271.00342.023410.6512.6734TT9.56-96.4412447.93628662814136.364209964090.824943536610691641151215WETL
2022-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2022104-18041.0732.2136.64303.627813385780.44911.42919.5110.9391TT9.07-84.9312447.63129682816135.913311858970.810461084511771641141212WETL
2022-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2022104-18041.2432.5536.895304.32291098510.44891.51899.4310.9489TT9.24-91.7612447.89636935385136.305126941420.815566870934771641151215WETL
2022-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2022104-18041.2432.5636.9304.017583726360.44891.51899.2110.7289TT9.24-90.7612447.77999173118136.132991127120.815566870934771641151215WETL
2022-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2022104-18041.1834.2137.695308.852826980170.30170.73179.2810.0117TT9.18-88.8212449.61241777511138.864066275230.81377465847589164113129WETL
2022-01-06 07:00:08FORECAST2022104-18041.1633.8137.485312.294841767310.3030.74310.2911.033TT9.16-94.8412450.90320351471140.8147445940.81317486946699164113129WETL
2022-01-06 03:00:11FORECAST2022104-18037.0633.8135.435313.949218389750.3030.72310.7111.433TT5.06-90.9412451.51960519356141.754227138170.66694770312046163113127.5WETL
2022-01-05 23:00:04FORECAST2022104-18039.7333.6936.71146.350877974470.52770.977711.712.6777TT7.73-86.2712373.8412124240554.7119896612980.76725453668136164113129WETL
2022-01-05 19:00:04FORECAST2022104-18040.1433.4636.8142.116587944990.43350.883511.8612.7435TT8.14-84.8612371.4184332446252.7847204325980.78102337735973164113129WETL
2022-01-05 15:00:04FORECAST2022104-18039.8334.1336.98143.662880309620.4030.85311.7112.563TT7.83-84.1712372.3062137499553.4865830244890.77065639859766164113129WETL
2022-01-05 11:00:05FORECAST2022104-18037.1934.4635.825145.811210472470.14221.432211.7313.1622TT5.19-90.8112373.5338720225854.4654260320790.672210364097891631141210WETL
2022-01-05 07:00:06FORECAST2022104-18037.6134.6836.145148.925163599890.13581.385811.3712.7558TT5.61-95.3912375.3014830390755.8918347608730.688976313485261631141210WETL
2022-01-05 03:00:07FORECAST2022104-18037.6137.2237.415145.833035323930.10041.350411.4812.8304TT5.61-93.3912373.5463094416754.475392139930.688976313485261631141210WETL