Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 8, 2022
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Friday, January 7, 2022 |
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Sunday, January 9, 2022 ]
DAY 100
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/09/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.34°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.226
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -150
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 5.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.50 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 135 in
SWE DAY: 8
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.99 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -184
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-01-09 07:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 27.66002 | 19.02002 | 23.34002 | 299.29074 | 0.12 | 5.67 | 8.83 | 14.5 | T | T | -4.33998 | -150.33998 | 8 | 443.63973437835 | 132.7772643955 | 0.22561522104279 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-09 03:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 27.66002 | 19.02002 | 23.34002 | 299.29074 | 0.12 | 5.67 | 8.83 | 14.5 | T | T | -4.33998 | -150.33998 | 8 | 443.63973437835 | 132.7772643955 | 0.22561522104279 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-08 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.62 | 21.86 | 25.74 | 299.10787184944 | 0.0244 | 5.5744 | 8.83 | 14.4044 | T | T | -2.38 | -148.38 | 8 | 443.56806613995 | 132.67470028349 | 0.29916772079457 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-08 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 27.92 | 19.36 | 23.64 | 299.55790285472 | 0.0501 | 5.6001 | 8.83 | 14.4301 | T | T | -4.08 | -150.08 | 8 | 443.74437890563 | 132.92713554854 | 0.23474495858524 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-08 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.39 | 18.89 | 24.64 | 299.8154300853 | 0.0976 | 5.6476 | 8.83 | 14.4776 | T | T | -1.61 | -147.61 | 8 | 443.84518207965 | 133.0716341565 | 0.33076758187717 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-07 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.66 | 17.42 | 23.54 | 299.86599797488 | 0.1565 | 4.4165 | 8.83 | 13.2465 | T | T | -2.34 | -150.34 | 8 | 443.86496798558 | 133.10001159108 | 0.30077521251449 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-07 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.76 | 17.54 | 23.65 | 299.79628863613 | 0.1448 | 4.4048 | 8.83 | 13.2348 | T | T | -2.24 | -150.24 | 8 | 443.8376918631 | 133.06089277738 | 0.30481087023558 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-07 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.75 | 21.21 | 25.98 | 300.10972472894 | 0.2253 | 4.4853 | 8.83 | 13.3153 | T | T | -1.25 | -149.25 | 8 | 443.96029631952 | 133.23680231903 | 0.34598441215737 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-07 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.66 | 18.82 | 24.74 | 302.71042431403 | 0.2812 | 4.5412 | 8.83 | 13.3712 | T | T | -1.34 | -149.34 | 8 | 444.97383636984 | 134.69821881616 | 0.3421556391257 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-07 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 34.22 | 19.02 | 26.62 | 304.86576747656 | 0.311 | 5.021 | 8.83 | 13.851 | T | T | 2.22 | -141.78 | 8 | 445.8087541134 | 135.91182797055 | 0.5019468495596 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-07 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.04 | 20.72 | 25.38 | 306.01550242627 | 0.3418 | 5.2618 | 8.83 | 14.0918 | T | T | -1.96 | -149.96 | 8 | 446.25226234092 | 136.56011026912 | 0.31623639138217 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 31.04 | 19.1 | 25.07 | 305.64659871911 | 0.4235 | 4.1235 | 8.83 | 12.9535 | T | T | -0.96 | -142.96 | 8 | 446.11009947891 | 136.35203455997 | 0.35842728775053 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-06 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.42 | 21.05 | 25.735 | 306.09171875729 | 0.4282 | 4.0382 | 8.83 | 12.8682 | T | T | -1.58 | -146.58 | 8 | 446.28161690626 | 136.60310716862 | 0.33202545897288 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-06 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.51 | 18.98 | 24.245 | 305.56922470075 | 0.4121 | 3.8221 | 8.83 | 12.6521 | T | T | -2.49 | -147.49 | 8 | 446.08026527719 | 136.30840081506 | 0.29476733665766 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-06 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.07 | 19.06 | 24.065 | 310.61382027554 | 0.3645 | 3.8945 | 8.83 | 12.7245 | T | T | -2.93 | -144.93 | 8 | 448.01316312965 | 139.15908013343 | 0.27747119612623 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-06 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.39 | 20.22 | 24.805 | 313.62260659472 | 0.3052 | 4.8952 | 8.83 | 13.7252 | T | T | -2.61 | -148.61 | 8 | 449.15427994645 | 140.86493603998 | 0.29000120857893 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-06 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.78 | 20.3 | 25.04 | 315.36420656782 | 0.2943 | 5.3243 | 8.83 | 14.1543 | T | T | -2.22 | -148.22 | 8 | 449.8108277791 | 141.85423480817 | 0.3056208785817 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-05 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.05 | 18.32 | 23.685 | 147.87706197447 | 0.1641 | 6.1341 | 9.01 | 15.1441 | T | T | -2.95 | -145.95 | 8 | 371.28966544381 | 54.905224867314 | 0.27669693142968 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-05 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.44 | 18 | 23.72 | 143.67354927832 | 0.1823 | 6.2923 | 9.01 | 15.3023 | T | T | -2.56 | -144.56 | 8 | 368.85720201736 | 52.995023390705 | 0.29198270743187 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-05 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.66 | 17.85 | 24.255 | 145.09875497629 | 0.2103 | 6.1403 | 9.01 | 15.1503 | T | T | -1.34 | -144.34 | 8 | 369.68484314973 | 53.640810474632 | 0.3421556391257 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-05 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.69 | 17.87 | 23.78 | 147.01305713913 | 0.1752 | 6.1552 | 9.01 | 15.1652 | T | T | -2.31 | -144.31 | 8 | 370.79180659103 | 54.51123704909 | 0.30198338017097 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-05 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.95 | 17.04 | 23.495 | 150.22655826655 | 0.185 | 5.905 | 8.9 | 14.805 | T | T | -2.05 | -145.05 | 8 | 372.63798540148 | 55.980122026247 | 0.31254404017556 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-05 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.99 | 18.32 | 24.155 | 147.06861132393 | 0.1628 | 6.0628 | 8.86 | 14.9228 | T | T | -2.01 | -144.01 | 8 | 370.82385102891 | 54.536548816612 | 0.31418279381797 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-04 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.93 | 19.05 | 24.49 | 142.13170568518 | 0.2188 | 5.9688 | 8.4 | 14.3688 | T | T | -2.07 | -144.07 | 8 | 367.95844692315 | 52.298561682457 | 0.31172604734355 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-04 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.62 | 20.96 | 25.79 | 145.98223962033 | 0.2453 | 5.9153 | 8.35 | 14.2653 | T | T | -1.38 | -142.38 | 8 | 370.19639541038 | 54.042098901381 | 0.34045912566929 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-04 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.73 | 20.35 | 25.54 | 143.99389905829 | 0.2315 | 5.3515 | 8.16 | 13.5115 | T | T | -1.27 | -145.27 | 8 | 369.04349569182 | 53.140011866767 | 0.3451321957348 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-04 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.21 | 19.69 | 24.45 | 145.91061531451 | 0.1697 | 5.3097 | 8.13 | 13.4397 | T | T | -2.79 | -146.79 | 8 | 370.15496649597 | 54.00953892315 | 0.28292047123777 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-04 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 30.88 | 21.05 | 25.965 | 144.5377374729 | 0.1242 | 5.5442 | 8.33 | 13.8742 | T | T | -1.12 | -141.12 | 8 | 369.35940828325 | 53.38637318759 | 0.3515426690879 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-04 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 31.62 | 19.7 | 25.66 | 146.00051024934 | 0.162 | 5.072 | 8.57 | 13.642 | T | T | -0.38 | -137.38 | 8 | 370.20696229692 | 54.050405393208 | 0.38375687604283 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-03 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.9 | 20.67 | 26.785 | 136.00538765821 | 0.1454 | 4.6854 | 7.92 | 12.6054 | T | T | 0.9 | -148.1 | 8 | 364.3523774304 | 49.553886336613 | 0.44129542373392 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-03 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.57 | 19.62 | 26.095 | 135.43946169944 | 0.1186 | 4.7586 | 7.96 | 12.7186 | T | T | 0.57 | -140.43 | 8 | 364.01642254671 | 49.302188319481 | 0.42629017000744 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-03 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.82 | 22.73 | 27.775 | 133.44220015737 | 0.1163 | 4.3463 | 7.92 | 12.2663 | T | T | 0.82 | -146.18 | 8 | 362.8269061096 | 48.416420627557 | 0.43764919129696 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-03 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 33.2 | 23.11 | 28.155 | 139.89902190178 | 0.3172 | 5.2172 | 7.88 | 13.0972 | T | T | 1.2 | -141.8 | 8 | 366.65074000111 | 51.294079905721 | 0.4550106672927 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-03 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 33.69 | 22.76 | 28.225 | 145.07283279045 | 0.28 | 5.28 | 8.2 | 13.48 | T | T | 1.69 | -140.31 | 8 | 369.66981643234 | 53.629047466964 | 0.47752058374853 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-03 03:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.41 | 25.36 | 28.885 | 144.64683399916 | 0.28 | 5.35 | 8.5 | 13.85 | T | T | 0.41 | -141.59 | 8 | 369.42272929061 | 53.435828199215 | 0.4190517394812 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-02 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.09 | 23.66 | 27.875 | 148.36782730642 | 0.2644 | 5.0544 | 9.21 | 14.2644 | T | T | 0.090000000000003 | -141.91 | 8 | 371.57196919524 | 55.129325757468 | 0.40465911072487 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-02 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 34.19 | 26.25 | 30.22 | 151.45256757013 | 0.2646 | 5.7346 | 9.31 | 15.0446 | T | T | 2.19 | -134.81 | 8 | 373.33837455442 | 56.543055398728 | 0.50056356376405 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-02 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 34.24 | 26.01 | 30.125 | 151.85967253843 | 0.2646 | 5.7346 | 9.15 | 14.8846 | T | T | 2.24 | -129.76 | 8 | 373.57046172892 | 56.730287988185 | 0.50286902811294 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-02 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.42 | 24.03 | 28.225 | 161.32203406947 | 0.5559 | 6.0959 | 8.95 | 15.0459 | T | T | 0.42 | -132.58 | 8 | 378.89781093948 | 61.124565565225 | 0.41950336633785 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-02 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.34 | 23.6 | 27.97 | 158.67923413416 | 0.6011 | 5.4711 | 9.06 | 14.5311 | T | T | 0.34 | -139.66 | 8 | 377.42276711972 | 59.889155631352 | 0.41589336926478 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-02 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 32.34 | 23.61 | 27.975 | 159.09016212578 | 0.6011 | 5.2511 | 9.18 | 14.4311 | T | T | 0.34 | -132.66 | 8 | 377.65277174129 | 60.080840683571 | 0.41589336926478 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-01 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 28.42 | 20.89 | 24.655 | 164.40999788099 | 0.172 | 5.382 | 9.73 | 15.112 | T | T | -3.58 | -133.58 | 8 | 380.60881999909 | 62.575895289536 | 0.25286292034088 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-01 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 21.71 | 18.13 | 19.92 | 162.9135918502 | 0.2247 | 5.5347 | 9.86 | 15.3947 | T | T | -10.29 | -137.29 | 8 | 379.78135263301 | 61.871544275169 | 0.074671376628906 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-01 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 25.72 | 17.75 | 21.735 | 162.44158501653 | 0.193 | 5.823 | 9.93 | 15.753 | T | T | -6.28 | -130.28 | 8 | 379.51969394344 | 61.649780629158 | 0.1641123175467 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-01 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 25.04 | 19.13 | 22.085 | 155.94286683548 | 0.2645 | 3.3445 | 9.99 | 13.3345 | T | T | -6.96 | -132.96 | 8 | 375.88503039523 | 58.616589240372 | 0.14540341131275 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-01 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.83 | 28.36 | 29.095 | 152.35091649697 | 0.1446 | 3.8246 | 10.55 | 14.3746 | T | T | -2.17 | -123.17 | 8 | 373.85019651894 | 56.956420072235 | 0.30765005525868 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-01-01 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 100 | -184 | 29.72 | 28.78 | 29.25 | 152.02366040296 | 0.1151 | 3.7951 | 10.47 | 14.2651 | T | T | -2.28 | -126.28 | 8 | 373.66388206913 | 56.805751112529 | 0.30319372083748 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |