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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 3, 2022

[ Sunday, January 2, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 4, 2022 ]

DAY 95 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/04/2022 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.273
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -148

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 3
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -189

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-04 07:00:03OBSERVATION202295-18926.7816.3900421.58502124.225473333331.271.799.1410.93TT-5.22-148.223352.64291430607 43.8072329473180.2729113152418516 21151210WETL
2022-01-04 03:00:05OBSERVATION202295-18926.7816.3900421.58502124.225473333331.271.799.1410.93TT-5.22-148.223352.64291430607 43.8072329473180.2729113152418516 21151210WETL
2022-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST202295-18923.0213.0518.035110.328019854580.3630.8839.1410.023TT-8.98-151.983343.8308379263337.9341755133540.1404635449625161113124.5WETL
2022-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202295-18924.2114.3719.29111.315345037020.62821.14829.1410.2882TT-7.79-150.793344.4671958215238.3444847568060.17667512615979161114126WETL
2022-01-03 03:00:03FORECAST202295-18925.6812.5619.12114.492894100161.26181.78189.1410.9218TT-6.32-149.323346.5044133278339.672293100380.22882415032797161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202295-18925.1714.4719.82119.370591712691.56262.41269.1411.5526TT-6.83-149.833349.5998270468841.7319382172410.20982294224919161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 19:00:01FORECAST202295-18926.0615.0220.54119.008095555881.48882.33889.1411.4788TT-5.94-148.943349.3711018043541.5779894679930.24358706854026161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 15:00:01FORECAST202295-18924.6914.9619.825119.393878442871.54732.39739.1411.5373TT-7.31-150.313349.6145131443441.7418326842190.19281498049161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST202295-18924.7515.2219.985123.764941288961.58142.43149.1411.5714TT-7.25-150.253352.3558566281843.6093019084070.19489381358339161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 07:00:07FORECAST202295-18924.9816.6420.81123.226193519861.52892.36899.1411.5089TT-7.02-150.023352.0196192707843.378037727050.20298784939843161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 03:00:08FORECAST202295-18925.6916.2420.965123.729373574891.55932.46939.1411.6093TT-6.31-149.313352.3336726786643.5940246098710.22920611324807161115127.5WETL
2022-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202295-18925.6716.721.185124.317596057751.36822.31829.1411.4582TT-6.33-142.333352.7002957197543.8468528927350.22844254434384161115127.5WETL
2022-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202295-18925.5115.9920.75125.582911357381.56772.46779.1411.6077TT-6.49-142.493353.4870782626944.3919364154440.22238560839148161115127.5WETL
2022-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST202295-18925.3515.6220.485125.328068890931.4532.4139.1411.553TT-6.65-142.653353.3288185962944.2820185181850.21642116959719161115127.5WETL
2022-01-01 11:00:05FORECAST202295-18925.2215.520.36126.608506298221.48912.53919.1411.6791TT-6.78-139.783354.122948065444.8349775004840.2116438433277161115127.5WETL
2022-01-01 07:00:06FORECAST202295-18925.614.7120.155127.903320126121.59512.71519.1411.8551TT-6.4-143.43354.9233716967945.3958776303780.22578131921083161115127.5WETL
2022-01-01 03:00:08FORECAST202295-18925.5514.9220.235127.907860998751.56872.66879.1411.8087TT-6.45-146.453354.9261741284645.3978477452410.22389121062078161115127.5WETL
2021-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST202295-18925.2816.3920.835126.432802061561.5222.6428.8711.512TT-6.72-143.723354.0141288263144.7589982768940.21384106452593161115127.5WETL
2021-12-31 19:00:03FORECAST202295-18926.2916.2421.265126.865237277961.54242.77248.8711.6424TT-5.71-137.713354.281862454344.9460525435410.252766026058951621151210WETL
2021-12-31 15:00:03FORECAST202295-18925.6315.9420.785126.371043231851.57252.71258.8711.5825TT-6.37-140.373353.9758680762544.7322997276960.22691969515658161115127.5WETL
2021-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST202295-18925.5117.2821.395129.012540478821.7462.9268.8711.796TT-6.49-144.493355.6069753835645.8777593062240.22238560839148161115127.5WETL
2021-12-31 07:00:06FORECAST202295-18925.7117.2821.495128.658140597251.71313.00318.8811.8831TT-6.29-144.293355.3887708942645.7236584523970.22997110880725161115127.5WETL
2021-12-31 03:00:05FORECAST202295-18927.8115.4721.64126.778842324671.51212.66218.911.5621TT-4.19-142.193354.2283962489944.9086659949730.317686616612111621151210WETL
2021-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST202295-18926.7818.3222.55123.525260859511.63392.73398.3211.0539TT-5.22-141.223352.2063267174143.5063783841380.272911315241851621151210WETL
2021-12-30 19:00:03FORECAST202295-18927.1419.4423.29120.259848422471.49482.38488.3310.7148TT-4.86-140.863350.1600327279342.1101924594670.288202122506981621151210WETL
2021-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202295-18927.1719.423.285119.328705332441.42622.23628.3310.5662TT-4.83-140.833349.5734086370841.7141422713110.289494360455361621151210WETL
2021-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202295-18926.8720.9323.9121.622496282951.28212.27218.3410.6121TT-5.13-141.133351.0160096859142.6914433332820.27669607790361621151210WETL
2021-12-30 07:00:10FORECAST202295-18928.1720.7624.465123.382256168831.27162.31168.6210.9316TT-3.83-136.833352.1170667240743.4449981279680.334036722602511621151210WETL
2021-12-30 03:00:08FORECAST202295-18927.3520.824.075125.843538396811.26712.27718.9111.1871TT-4.65-140.653353.6488242845744.5044193978430.297304284411081621151210WETL
2021-12-29 23:00:04FORECAST202295-18930.8420.525.67127.882381193471.20832.18839.0911.2783TT-1.16-125.163354.9104486681445.3867932861240.463267444365951621151210WETL
2021-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202295-18929.0720.5724.82129.69872280911.22582.22589.1711.3958TT-2.93-126.933356.0289008574346.1764937243350.376253400677411621151210WETL
2021-12-29 15:00:03FORECAST202295-18929.0820.6324.855129.584150468881.22582.17589.0911.2658TT-2.92-132.923355.9585028003746.126580187560.37673202205071621151210WETL
2021-12-29 11:00:04FORECAST202295-18932.520.3126.405129.92840210941.6882.3289.0711.398TT0.5-129.53356.1699637798446.2765942732780.546592785142461631151212.5WETL
2021-12-29 07:00:14FORECAST202295-18934.8520.5727.71129.071343106821.77152.58158.9811.5615TT2.85-120.153355.6431612463145.9033404888180.660308607662911631151212.5WETL
2021-12-29 03:00:07FORECAST202295-18934.8520.5727.71129.811969183061.77152.69158.9511.6415TT2.85-124.153356.0984640555346.2258428421110.660308607662911631151212.5WETL
2021-12-28 23:00:03FORECAST202295-18932.7920.8326.81129.78628270112.28113.00118.7811.7811TT0.79-116.213356.0826875226746.2146483477830.56104356841491631151212.5WETL
2021-12-28 19:00:03FORECAST202295-18930.6722.5826.625130.284807726452.2682.8888.8211.708TT-1.33-120.333356.3886957736246.4320327047480.45476321758261621151210WETL
2021-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202295-18932.2622.5927.425130.199686713732.25922.87928.8111.6892TT0.26-116.743356.3364736039546.3948972279110.534585825712041631151212.5WETL
2021-12-28 11:00:04FORECAST202295-18933.6527.1630.405130.428070904351.93892.72898.7711.4989TT1.65-125.353356.4765629651546.4945504301560.603350497406191631151212.5WETL
2021-12-28 07:00:10FORECAST202295-18932.7826.0529.415130.945509042981.96082.53088.9511.4808TT0.78-124.223356.7936556456446.7205268618240.560546504504731631151212.5WETL
2021-12-28 03:00:09FORECAST202295-18932.6526.1429.395131.93894054171.96082.53088.9811.5108TT0.65-123.353357.4012762119347.1551457316530.554076267450031631151212.5WETL
2021-12-27 23:00:03FORECAST202295-18929.621.4725.535136.278351632031.12122.15129.0211.1712TT-2.4-129.43360.0375230156649.0653201622540.401865118333351621151210WETL
2021-12-27 19:00:04FORECAST202295-18931.6925.228.445134.588157633951.04172.17178.9711.1417TT-0.31-120.313359.0141622193548.3190546575990.50596290832881631151212.5WETL
2021-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202295-18927.1824.7225.95134.47583319650.92982.05988.9611.0198TT-4.82-123.823358.9459973939148.2695620720930.289925709701381621151210WETL
2021-12-27 11:00:04FORECAST202295-18925.5520.8923.22132.595313379650.50891.45899.0410.4989TT-6.45-126.453357.8018985108247.4428548608780.22389121062078161114126WETL
2021-12-27 07:00:10FORECAST202295-18925.5822.9724.275133.05764618360.47471.39479.1810.5747TT-6.42-130.423358.0836863035247.6457724362920.22502419678316161114126WETL
2021-12-27 03:00:12FORECAST202295-18925.9825.4825.73132.333000678590.28841.20849.2310.4384TT-6.02-136.023357.6418740215847.3278223575920.24043703933875161114126WETL