MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 30, 2021

[ Wednesday, December 29, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, December 31, 2021 ]

DAY 91 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/31/2021 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 20.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 10.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 15.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.320
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -151

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.85 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 111 in
SWE DAY: 2
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 171

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-31 07:00:04OBSERVATION20229117120.9199210.4100815.665110.5312750.850000000000021.069.3810.44TT-11.08008-151.080082342.99517160506 37.9116936363510.3196715837124716 2114128WETL
2021-12-31 03:00:04OBSERVATION20229117120.9199210.4100815.665110.5312750.850000000000021.069.3810.44TT-11.08008-151.080082342.99517160506 37.9116936363510.3196715837124716 2114128WETL
2021-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST20229117121.8312.1316.98107.508834577830.24580.45589.389.8358TT-10.17-150.172341.0307367420236.6638170623550.33108699482702162112124WETL
2021-12-30 07:00:08FORECAST20229117121.112.6716.885109.420105748130.50520.71529.3810.0952TT-10.9-150.92342.2747196774337.4517360220160.3219173155592162113126WETL
2021-12-30 03:00:07FORECAST20229117117.0813.915.49111.704951816420.80011.01019.3810.3901TT-14.92-154.922343.7539467901238.3990180628930.27345708636281162114128WETL
2021-12-29 23:00:01FORECAST20229117123.0912.9418.015115.415715106640.97341.18349.3810.5634TT-8.91-143.912346.1381060310639.9497770332320.34715217213751162114128WETL
2021-12-29 19:00:01FORECAST20229117122.9414.1818.56116.052315765831.06841.27849.3810.6584TT-9.06-144.062346.5448674234940.2173343812570.34522448862966162114128WETL
2021-12-29 15:00:01FORECAST20229117117.8914.2716.08115.832314295470.97821.18829.3810.5682TT-14.11-149.112346.4043699850740.1248198574360.28292592451107162114128WETL
2021-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST20229117117.0114.0215.515115.983323124740.95921.16929.3810.5492TT-14.99-149.992346.5008157614640.1883160774460.2726462067131162114128WETL
2021-12-29 07:00:11FORECAST20229117123.0514.3718.71115.591864040330.89071.10079.3810.4807TT-8.95-143.952346.2507237120640.0237665791910.34663773410341162114128WETL
2021-12-29 03:00:06FORECAST20229117122.6214.3218.47115.459314099360.8491.0699.3810.449TT-9.38-148.382346.1659849624139.9680871882880.34112553820209162114128WETL
2021-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST20229117122.9714.5318.75113.95315785860.82250.87259.3810.2525TT-9.03-140.032345.201097560139.3367551632270.34560970634747162113126WETL
2021-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST20229117124.8114.7919.8114.10726794550.88680.94689.3810.3268TT-7.19-139.192345.2999945652639.4012390014360.36952805860441162113126WETL
2021-12-28 15:00:02FORECAST20229117124.4915.0819.785113.920393062550.84650.91659.3810.2965TT-7.51-138.512345.1800664298639.3230488450480.36532882350591162113126WETL
2021-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST20229117124.8914.8219.855113.974408759340.8060.8769.3810.256TT-7.11-143.112345.2147371933939.3456455666280.37058032536841162113126WETL
2021-12-28 07:00:09FORECAST20229117125.4113.2919.35115.725716636090.98681.05689.3810.4368TT-6.59-137.592346.336266298140.0800126144160.37744334470346162114128WETL
2021-12-28 03:00:08FORECAST20229117125.3613.1519.255115.995392801760.98791.08799.3810.4679TT-6.64-137.642346.50852278340.1933922093730.37678171600071162114128WETL
2021-12-27 23:00:03FORECAST20229117119.2310.7214.975120.093684543051.1061.1769.3710.546TT-12.77-142.772349.1118494625141.9261283195930.29892709955157162114128WETL
2021-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST20229117124.8213.9119.365118.937696102511.01521.10529.3710.4752TT-7.18-137.182348.3802815549141.4355480556860.36965953872562162114128WETL
2021-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST20229117125.9313.6719.8119.1478696551.01361.10369.3710.4736TT-6.07-136.072348.5134498183541.5246350919720.38434527135793162114128WETL
2021-12-27 11:00:03FORECAST20229117126.7514.2620.505119.209099152911.0171.1279.3710.497TT-5.25-135.252348.5522321281641.5505975997330.39530314174611162114128WETL
2021-12-27 07:00:09FORECAST20229117123.0414.8818.96120.449172109011.2041.2949.3610.654TT-8.96-137.962349.3363884537642.0772787768060.34650916870112162114128WETL
2021-12-27 03:00:10FORECAST20229117126.813.2120.005120.49324841111.20591.33599.3610.6959TT-5.2-139.22349.3642145387942.0960290883730.39597408669922162114128WETL
2021-12-26 23:00:03FORECAST20229117127.1612.3619.76116.238668057640.98221.11229.310.4122TT-4.84-126.842346.6638144071340.2957400504650.40081387413578162114128WETL
2021-12-26 19:00:03FORECAST20229117126.413.219.8119.022953958841.23741.42749.3210.7474TT-5.6-125.62348.4343104360141.4716808887060.39061531661076162114128WETL
2021-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST20229117126.3817.4421.91119.663335425371.26621.49629.3210.8162TT-5.62-126.622348.8397537443641.7433284620140.39034791327184162114128WETL
2021-12-26 11:00:03FORECAST20229117127.116.1921.645121.052571679821.28351.47359.3210.7935TT-4.9-122.92349.7170539370242.3341487393680.40000616328341162114128WETL
2021-12-26 07:00:06FORECAST20229117122.7314.3718.55124.040961016891.43481.57489.4411.0148TT-9.27-132.272351.5937572247943.61202753370.342532469937521621151210WETL
2021-12-26 03:00:05FORECAST20229117122.5814.4418.51125.181928296961.4771.6079.5111.117TT-9.42-134.422352.3065333972444.1024112022840.340614472225751621151210WETL
2021-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST20229117124.613.6819.14111.553965050510.85730.97739.0310.0073TT-7.4-134.42343.6564614639638.3362408915310.36677052046047162113126WETL
2021-12-25 19:00:04FORECAST20229117123.5310.7817.155109.987487518770.67680.78688.989.7668TT-8.47-133.472342.6428486446337.6864260386970.35282939276896162113126WETL
2021-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST20229117123.6110.7917.2110.281011120670.67680.776899.7768TT-8.39-134.392342.8330846767137.8079792237670.35386518768066162113126WETL
2021-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST20229117126.3614.4520.405118.67314479091.36231.50239.0110.5123TT-5.64-130.642348.2125578566741.3234792965340.39008056178111621151210WETL
2021-12-25 07:00:08FORECAST20229117126.2114.5720.39119.093598179921.36231.51239.0910.6023TT-5.79-128.792348.4790696258641.5016262921360.388077090319731621151210WETL
2021-12-25 03:00:07FORECAST20229117127.3715.1821.275120.628040401331.4981.6389.3110.948TT-4.63-134.632349.4492915822142.1533832631940.403644180619331621151210WETL
2021-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST2022911712613.1719.585112.044274197861.05131.20139.0210.2213TT-6-1342343.972895530738.5401934234720.38527723695125162114128WETL
2021-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST20229117124.8911.8518.37110.872310273110.83280.96289.110.0628TT-7.11-134.112343.2158821042138.0531377713160.37058032536841162113126WETL
2021-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20229117124.9511.9918.47111.271404516560.83280.92289.0910.0128TT-7.05-135.052343.4739244254338.2188259856340.37137016154886162113126WETL
2021-12-24 11:00:04FORECAST20229117121.5713.6717.62110.933641118530.540.678.979.64TT-10.43-134.432343.2555537944538.0785884165770.32780909509709162113126WETL
2021-12-24 07:00:06FORECAST2022911712312.3617.68109.742899239650.47960.58968.979.5596TT-9-1422342.4842197905537.5852112236450.34599508391149162113126WETL
2021-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST20229117123.0312.3117.67113.110710117020.47960.59969.5910.1896TT-8.97-133.972344.6597891421638.984713498650.34638062096765162113126WETL
2021-12-23 23:00:03FORECAST20229117118.653.2810.965101.938396097920.2170.2279.49.627TT-13.35-148.352337.3704824453734.3910058712640.29195083625547162112124WETL
2021-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20229117120.264.6912.475102.522854696630.14290.15299.549.6929TT-11.74-146.742337.7569580486234.6278075327960.31149870569447162112124WETL
2021-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST20229117120.34.7212.5199.5003976970760.0230.0339.39.333TT-11.7-143.72335.7521436326733.4074718190970.31199151185657162111122WETL
2021-12-23 11:00:04FORECAST20229117111.13.747.42104.2456469388300.189.319.49TT-20.9-150.92338.8928289446835.3281021962690.20875495065931161112123WETL
2021-12-23 07:00:11FORECAST20229117112.2911.1511.72106.896302711340.04770.22779.589.8077TT-19.71-141.712340.6307805430536.4121710297310.22086294992184161112123WETL
2021-12-23 03:00:10FORECAST20229117111.110.4410.77106.732020834690.01780.19789.8110.0078TT-20.9-140.92340.5234058799236.3447512510770.20875495065931161112123WETL