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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 3, 2021

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DAY 3 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/04/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 50.34°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 39.35°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 44.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.500 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 366 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 7.09 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 7.09 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 91 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.23 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 83 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 22.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-04 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	3	83	50.34002	39.34994	44.84498	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	18.34002	366.34002	91	357.22687332289	0.50010235472148	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	43.91	43.91	43.91	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	11.91	359.91	90	356.31057557841	0.27870288431611	85	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2021-10-03 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	3	83	53.89	43.51	48.7	0.0056	0.0056	7.09	7.0956	T	T	21.89	369.89	90	356.31057557841	0.62714659467373	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.19	40.1	47.645	0.0016	0.0016	7.09	7.0916	T	T	23.19	371.19	90	356.31057557841	0.67110777561678	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-03 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	3	83	54.34	41.72	48.03	0.0041	0.0041	7.09	7.0941	T	T	22.34	370.34	90	356.31057557841	0.64258713729775	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	54.86	40.77	47.815	0.0013	0.0013	7.09	7.0913	T	T	22.86	357.86	91	357.22687332289	0.66014182837405	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.31	40	47.655	0.0003	0.0003	7.09	7.0903	T	T	23.31	371.31	91	357.22687332289	0.67505979648115	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	54.59	41.4	47.995	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	22.59	370.59	91	357.22687332289	0.65106731151404	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	54.34	41.61	47.975	0.0005	0.0005	7.09	7.0905	T	T	22.34	370.34	91	357.22687332289	0.64258713729775	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	54.8	40.69	47.745	0.0005	0.0005	7.09	7.0905	T	T	22.8	370.8	91	357.22687332289	0.65813304284412	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.17	41.93	48.55	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	23.17	368.17	91	357.22687332289	0.67044722755508	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.84	41.93	48.885	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	23.84	365.84	91	357.22687332289	0.69227524428409	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.55	41.55	48.55	0.0032	0.0032	7.09	7.0932	T	T	23.55	373.55	91	357.22687332289	0.68290470333356	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	56.04	43.05	49.545	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	24.04	375.04	91	357.22687332289	0.69866592429254	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.59	43.28	49.435	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	23.59	374.59	91	357.22687332289	0.68420436261818	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 10:03:08	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.62	41.62	48.62	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	23.62	374.62	91	357.22687332289	0.68517761704948	85	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.73	41.51	48.62	0.0045	0.0045	7.09	7.0945	T	T	23.73	375.73	91	357.22687332289	0.69578614059634	84	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.12	43	49.06	0.001	0.001	7.09	7.091	T	T	23.12	375.12	91	357.22687332289	0.67590611588936	84	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.04	42.87	48.955	0.0027	0.0027	6.6	6.6027	T	F	23.04	366.04	91	357.22687332289	0.67325967278769	84	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2021-09-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.77	43.37	50.57	0.0042	0.0042	6.87	6.8742	T	T	25.77	379.77	91	357.22687332289	0.75795456225798	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.3	42.91	50.105	0.0308	0.0508	6.87	6.9208	T	T	25.3	378.3	91	357.22687332289	0.74426667854669	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:50:14	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.3	42.92	50.11	0.0308	0.0508	6.87	6.9208	T	T	25.3	378.3	91	357.22687332289	0.74426667854669	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:45:45	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.3	42.92	50.11	0.0308	0.0508	6.87	6.9208	T	T	25.3	378.3	91	357.22687332289	0.74426667854669	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:44:56	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.3	42.92	50.11	0.0308	0.0508	6.87	6.9208	T	T	25.3	378.3	91	357.22687332289	0.74426667854669	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:43:20	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.3	42.92	50.11	0.0308	0.0508	7.1	7.1508	T	T	25.3	380.3	91	357.22687332289	0.74426667854669	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:40:26	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.3	42.92	50.11	0.0308	0.0508	7.1	7.1508	T	T	25.3	380.3	91	357.22687332289	0.74426667854669	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.64	42.98	50.31	0.0294	0.0494	7.1	7.1494	T	T	25.64	381.64	91	357.22687332289	0.75420869304725	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.83	42.03	48.93	0.0267	0.0267	7.27	7.2967	T	T	23.83	379.83	91	357.22687332289	0.69899274461316	84	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	3	83	56.68	41.49	49.085	0.0268	0.0268	7.36	7.3868	T	T	24.68	376.68	91	357.22687332289	0.72561166903354	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	56.01	41.58	48.795	0.0007	0.0007	6.94	6.9407	T	T	24.01	380.01	91	357.22687332289	0.70472591694937	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	56.52	41.62	49.07	0.0007	0.0007	6.9	6.9007	T	T	24.52	387.52	91	357.22687332289	0.72069082761137	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	3	83	55.32	42.06	48.69	0.0011	0.0011	6.87	6.8711	T	T	23.32	386.32	91	357.22687332289	0.68248324791156	84	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	58.14	43.22	50.68	0.0002	0.0002	6.9	6.9002	T	T	26.14	388.14	91	357.22687332289	0.76844462213418	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	57.18	44.74	50.96	0	0	7.02	7.02	T	T	25.18	386.18	91	357.22687332289	0.74070833255709	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	3	83	61.42	43.98	52.7	0	0	6.99	6.99	T	T	29.42	392.42	91	357.22687332289	0.84970984744185	84	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	60.54	42.7	51.62	0	0	6.05	6.05	T	F	28.54	386.54	91	357.22687332289	0.83003221685449	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	61.13	42.7	51.915	0	0	6.25	6.25	T	F	29.13	389.13	91	357.22687332289	0.8433996080756	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	61.12	42.7	51.91	0	0	6.38	6.38	T	F	29.12	386.12	91	357.22687332289	0.8431789551778	84	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	62.33	44.84	53.585	0	0	6.5	6.5	T	F	30.33	391.33	91	357.22687332289	0.86840097372047	84	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2021-09-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	62.59	45.73	54.16	0	0	6.57	6.57	T	F	30.59	388.59	91	357.22687332289	0.87343406582679	84	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2021-09-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	3	83	62.57	45.73	54.15	0	0	6.81	6.81	T	T	30.57	387.57	91	357.22687332289	0.87305171795227	84	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2021-09-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	62.96	42.29	52.625	0	0.04	6.27	6.31	T	F	30.96	372.96	91	357.22687332289	0.88036355226791	84	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2021-09-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	62.86	42.61	52.735	0	0.04	6.58	6.62	T	F	30.86	380.86	91	357.22687332289	0.87851758358074	84	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2021-09-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	62.88	42.6	52.74	0	0.05	6.42	6.47	T	F	30.88	382.88	91	357.22687332289	0.87888836509926	84	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2021-09-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	64.31	45.84	55.075	0	0.2	6.14	6.34	T	F	32.31	385.31	91	357.22687332289	0.90337244818796	84	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2021-09-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	65.01	46.81	55.91	0	0.2	6.45	6.65	T	T	33.01	389.01	91	357.22687332289	0.91394215865715	84	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	WET	H
2021-09-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	3	83	65.49	46.79	56.14	0	0.2	6.86	7.06	T	T	33.49	399.49	91	357.22687332289	0.92067506788292	84	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	66.15	47.26	56.705	0	0.17	6.12	6.29	T	F	34.15	399.15	91	357.22687332289	0.92927371276655	84	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	MH
2021-09-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	3	83	67.11	48.05	57.58	0	0.21	5.81	6.02	T	F	35.11	417.11	91	357.22687332289	0.94048268379223	84	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	MH
2021-09-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	67.11	48.06	57.585	0	0.28	5.78	6.06	T	F	35.11	417.11	91	357.22687332289	0.94048268379223	84	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	MH
2021-09-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	54.84	46.17	50.505	0.0154	0.0254	5.51	5.5354	T	F	22.84	407.84	91	357.22687332289	0.66660558167124	84	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	3	83	47.76	46.18	46.97	0.0121	0.0221	6.29	6.3121	T	F	15.76	392.76	91	357.22687332289	0.41300669592373	84	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2021-09-26 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	3	83	46.2	45.14	45.67	0	0.02	6.22	6.24	T	F	14.2	398.2	91	357.22687332289	0.35825718728121	84	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH