MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 2, 2021

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DAY 2 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/03/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.596
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 364

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 82

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-03 04:00:05OBSERVATION202228256.4600239.6548.05501000.496.67.09TT24.46002364.4600292358.13969574323 00.5962265975451889 34225245WETH
2021-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202228243.1843.1843.18000.496.67.09TT11.18351.1891357.2268733228900.171622010614098914225235WETH
2021-10-02 12:00:01FORECAST202228256.0843.6249.85000.496.67.09TT24.08364.0891357.2268733228900.582972391521118934225245WETH
2021-10-02 08:00:02FORECAST202228256.3240.9948.65500.00350.49356.67.0935TT24.32364.3291357.2268733228900.591355009406038934235267.5WETH
2021-10-02 04:00:06FORECAST202228252.6641.6847.1700.00070.49076.67.0907TT20.66360.6691357.2268733228900.461253385416568924235260WETH
2021-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202228255.941.9148.905000.496.67.09TT23.9357.992358.1396957432300.57666036166458934225245WETH
2021-10-01 20:00:02FORECAST202228255.4240.7248.0700.00040.49046.67.0904TT23.42366.4292358.1396957432300.55973613978428934235267.5WETH
2021-10-01 16:00:01FORECAST202228255.6542.1448.89500.00090.49096.67.0909TT23.65366.6592358.1396957432300.567861258356028934235267.5WETH
2021-10-01 12:00:03FORECAST202228255.7442.549.1200.00090.49096.67.0909TT23.74366.7492358.1396957432300.571033052431848934235267.5WETH
2021-10-01 10:03:08FORECAST202228255.7641.9248.8400.00090.49096.67.0909TT23.76366.7692358.1396957432300.571737280650428934235267.5WETH
2021-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202228255.9842.3249.1500.00360.49366.67.0936TT23.98367.9892358.1396957432300.585896383497018834235267.5WETH
2021-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202228256.3841.8649.12000.496.67.09TT24.38368.3892358.1396957432300.5998905234818834225245WETH
2021-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST202228256.5642.1349.3450006.66.6TF24.56358.5692358.1396957432300.606147434823298834215222.5WETMH
2021-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202228256.541.9849.2400.0010.2716.66.871TT24.5369.592358.1396957432300.604064752996358834225245WETH
2021-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202228256.0941.8448.96500.01770.28776.66.8877TT24.09369.0992358.1396957432300.589756464631118834225245WETH
2021-09-30 14:50:14FORECAST202228256.0941.8448.96500.01770.28776.66.8877TT24.09369.0992358.1396957432300.589756464631118834225245WETH
2021-09-30 14:45:45FORECAST202228256.0941.8448.96500.01770.28776.66.8877TT24.09369.0992358.1396957432300.589756464631118834225245WETH
2021-09-30 14:44:56FORECAST202228256.0941.8448.96500.01770.28776.66.8877TT24.09369.0992358.1396957432300.589756464631118834225245WETH
2021-09-30 14:43:20FORECAST202228256.0941.8448.96500.01770.51776.67.1177TT24.09371.0992358.1396957432300.589756464631118834235267.5WETH
2021-09-30 14:40:26FORECAST202228256.0941.8448.96500.01770.51776.67.1177TT24.09371.0992358.1396957432300.589756464631118834235267.5WETH
2021-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202228257.0440.5548.79500.0180.5186.67.118TT25.04372.0492358.1396957432300.622695085343118834235267.5WETH
2021-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST202228256.741.949.300.00330.67336.67.2733TT24.7371.792358.1396957432300.610995142055468834235267.5WETH
2021-09-30 04:00:06FORECAST202228256.5841.7149.14500.00330.76336.67.3633TT24.58367.5892358.1396957432300.606840991375168834235267.5WETH
2021-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202228257.7541.2849.515000.955.996.94TT25.75371.7592358.1396957432300.646756401342748834235267.5WETH
2021-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST202228259.641.4550.525000.846.066.9TT27.6378.692358.1396957432300.706563510239888844235275WETH
2021-09-29 16:00:01FORECAST202228258.7541.3250.035000.816.066.87TT26.75378.7592358.1396957432300.679655714854058834235267.5WETH
2021-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST202228258.9941.7850.385000.846.066.9TT26.99377.9992358.1396957432300.687357747348478834235267.5WETH
2021-09-29 08:00:03FORECAST202228259.3142.1450.725000.856.177.02TT27.31377.3192358.1396957432300.697500825488138834235267.5WETH
2021-09-29 04:00:07FORECAST202228260.4942.4751.48000.826.176.99TT28.49379.4992358.1396957432300.733561344318844235275WETH
2021-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202228258.2539.0548.65000.795.266.05TF26.25374.2592358.1396957432300.663362262992148834235267.5WETMH
2021-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST202228258.1838.8648.52000.825.436.25TF26.18376.1892358.1396957432300.661055620381928834235267.5WETMH
2021-09-28 16:00:03FORECAST202228258.1438.348.22000.875.516.38TT26.14373.1492358.1396957432300.659734817474218834235267.5WETH
2021-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202228259.737.4648.58000.965.546.5TT27.7376.792358.1396957432300.709659179614388844235275WETH
2021-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST202228255.6137.3546.48001.015.566.57TT23.61373.6192358.1396957432300.572853560483178834245290WETH
2021-09-28 04:00:07FORECAST202228255.5637.3546.455001.065.756.81TT23.56372.5692358.1396957432300.57108456014658834245290WETH
2021-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202228256.135.9346.015001.185.136.31TT24.1358.192358.1396957432300.590106956326968834245290WETH
2021-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202228255.935.5645.73001.165.466.62TT23.9365.992358.1396957432300.583083808799298834245290WETH
2021-09-27 16:00:03FORECAST202228255.8935.5745.730015.476.47TT23.89367.8992358.1396957432300.582731934689228834245290WETH
2021-09-27 12:00:04FORECAST202228259.6638.8849.27001.075.276.34TT27.66368.6692358.1396957432300.7084227457200988442452100WETH
2021-09-27 08:00:04FORECAST202228260.6739.6550.16001.045.616.65TT28.67371.6792358.1396957432300.7388649531976388442452100WETH
2021-09-27 04:00:05FORECAST202228260.6439.8550.245001.046.027.06TT28.64381.6492358.1396957432300.7379847961035288442452100WETH
2021-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST202228263.4740.1551.81000.895.46.29TT31.47381.4792358.1396957432300.81390030493778844235275WETH
2021-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST202228264.9541.5853.265000.555.476.02TF32.95397.9592358.1396957432300.847525564861398844235275WETMH
2021-09-26 16:00:03FORECAST202228264.8641.5953.225000.55.566.06TF32.86397.8692358.1396957432300.845603489104038844235275WETMH
2021-09-26 12:00:03FORECAST202228261.8741.4651.665000.145.385.52TF29.87400.8792358.1396957432300.772787528666728844325255WETMH
2021-09-26 08:00:04FORECAST202228261.8541.4651.655000.116.196.3TF29.85392.8592358.1396957432300.772243245157948844225250WETMH
2021-09-26 04:00:08FORECAST202228260.7941.0750.93000.136.116.24TF28.79399.7992358.1396957432300.742370343719098844325255WETMH
2021-09-26 00:00:04FORECAST202228259.2438.8749.055000.265.685.94TF27.24377.2492358.1396957432300.695294638992318834225245WETMH
2021-09-25 20:00:03FORECAST202228261.4338.3549.89000.255.635.88TF29.43396.4392358.1396957432300.760645500971788844225250WETMH
2021-09-25 16:00:03FORECAST202228261.3938.3549.87000.255.495.74TF29.39398.3992358.1396957432300.759524402894368844225250WETMH
2021-09-25 12:00:04FORECAST202228252.9441.6947.315000.25.715.91TF20.94390.9492358.1396957432300.477244122349638824225240WETMH
2021-09-25 08:00:04FORECAST202228241.7841.2441.51000.325.465.78TF9.78365.7892358.1396957432300.143795296944088814225235WETMH
2021-09-25 04:00:08FORECAST202228241.7441.2341.485000.325.445.76TF9.74369.7492358.1396957432300.14297877201028814225235WETMH