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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 1, 2021

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DAY 1 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/02/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 48.71°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 30.97°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 39.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.300 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 367 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 1.14 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 5.98 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 7.12 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 93 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.05 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 81 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 4 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 80.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-02 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	1	81	48.70994	30.97004	39.83999	0	1.14	5.98	7.12	T	T	16.70994	366.70994	93	359.04905602062	0.30045016725164	96	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	43.07	43.07	43.07	0	1.14	5.98	7.12	T	T	11.07	361.07	92	358.13969574323	0.16219780290146	96	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2021-10-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.33	42.83	47.58	0.0027	1.1427	5.98	7.1227	T	T	20.33	370.33	92	358.13969574323	0.4104369815855	96	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-01 10:03:08	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.41	40.79	46.6	0	1.14	5.98	7.12	T	T	20.41	370.41	92	358.13969574323	0.412988259068	96	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-01 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.98	36.52	44.75	0	1.14	5.98	7.12	T	T	20.98	370.98	92	358.13969574323	0.43689754628865	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.8	35.64	44.22	0.0023	1.1423	5.98	7.1223	T	T	20.8	370.8	92	358.13969574323	0.43105740874442	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.47	34.47	43.47	0.0034	0.6534	5.98	6.6334	T	T	20.47	361.47	93	359.04905602062	0.420390432597	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.29	34.02	43.155	0.0015	0.9215	5.98	6.9015	T	T	20.29	372.29	93	359.04905602062	0.41459610674728	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-30 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.39	34.54	43.465	0.0019	0.9219	5.98	6.9019	T	T	20.39	372.39	93	359.04905602062	0.4178129679531	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:50:12	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.39	34.9	43.645	0.0019	0.9219	5.98	6.9019	T	T	20.39	372.39	93	359.04905602062	0.4178129679531	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:45:45	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.39	34.9	43.645	0.0019	0.9219	5.98	6.9019	T	T	20.39	372.39	93	359.04905602062	0.4178129679531	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:44:56	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.39	34.9	43.645	0.0019	0.9219	5.98	6.9019	T	T	20.39	372.39	93	359.04905602062	0.4178129679531	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:43:20	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.39	34.9	43.645	0.0019	1.1519	5.98	7.1319	T	T	20.39	374.39	93	359.04905602062	0.4178129679531	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:40:22	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.39	34.9	43.645	0.0019	1.1519	5.98	7.1319	T	T	20.39	374.39	93	359.04905602062	0.4178129679531	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.41	34.83	43.62	0.0003	1.1503	5.98	7.1303	T	T	20.41	374.41	93	359.04905602062	0.41845700783308	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.43	35.33	43.88	0.0039	1.3239	5.98	7.3039	T	T	20.43	374.43	93	359.04905602062	0.41910126635259	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-30 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.39	35.4	43.895	0.0039	1.4139	5.98	7.3939	T	T	20.39	370.39	93	359.04905602062	0.4178129679531	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.37	35.27	43.82	0.0002	0.9902	5.98	6.9702	T	T	20.37	373.37	93	359.04905602062	0.41716914838877	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	53.01	35.96	44.485	0.001	0.951	5.98	6.931	T	T	21.01	378.01	93	359.04905602062	0.43787227653317	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-29 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.99	36.08	44.535	0	0.92	5.98	6.9	T	T	20.99	378.99	93	359.04905602062	0.43722241411283	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	53.14	36.29	44.715	0	0.95	5.98	6.93	T	T	21.14	378.14	93	359.04905602062	0.44210039020162	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.5	36.59	44.545	0.0002	1.0702	5.98	7.0502	T	T	20.5	376.5	93	359.04905602062	0.42135786871716	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-29 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.54	36.16	44.35	0.0005	1.0405	5.98	7.0205	T	T	20.54	377.54	93	359.04905602062	0.42264852132382	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	51.68	36.38	44.03	0.0028	0.9628	5.12	6.0828	T	F	19.68	374.68	93	359.04905602062	0.39510464648005	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2021-09-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	1	81	51.93	36.48	44.205	0.0033	0.9233	5.36	6.2833	T	T	19.93	376.93	93	359.04905602062	0.40306422701238	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	51.24	36.84	44.04	0.004	1.054	5.36	6.414	T	T	19.24	374.24	93	359.04905602062	0.38120340166364	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	50.82	36.96	43.89	0.0038	1.1738	5.36	6.5338	T	T	18.82	375.82	93	359.04905602062	0.36807520453519	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	50.12	36.87	43.495	0.0044	1.1444	5.46	6.6044	T	T	18.12	377.12	93	359.04905602062	0.34653991522018	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	1	81	49.87	34.92	42.395	0.0028	1.3028	5.54	6.8428	T	T	17.87	375.87	93	359.04905602062	0.33896311484372	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	48.67	36.67	42.67	0.0435	1.5735	4.77	6.3435	T	T	16.67	360.67	93	359.04905602062	0.30353801543024	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2021-09-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	49.36	36.62	42.99	0.0366	1.5566	5.09	6.6466	T	T	17.36	369.36	93	359.04905602062	0.32370940328492	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2021-09-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	49.36	36.87	43.115	0.0458	1.3758	5.12	6.4958	T	T	17.36	371.36	93	359.04905602062	0.32370940328492	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	1	81	45.71	35.48	40.595	0.1989	1.2889	5.08	6.3689	T	T	13.71	367.71	93	359.04905602062	0.22411408350441	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2021-09-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	45.87	37.3	41.585	0.2015	1.4015	5.28	6.6815	T	T	13.87	369.87	93	359.04905602062	0.22808296285784	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2021-09-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	1	81	49.79	36.67	43.23	0.2035	1.4235	5.67	7.0935	T	T	17.79	379.79	93	359.04905602062	0.33655204521796	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	50.39	36.32	43.355	0.1734	1.1734	5.15	6.3234	T	T	18.39	377.39	93	359.04905602062	0.35479226195653	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	51.52	39.16	45.34	0.2098	0.6098	5.44	6.0498	T	F	19.52	391.52	93	359.04905602062	0.39003315825776	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2021-09-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	51.77	40.59	46.18	0.2774	0.5674	5.52	6.0874	T	F	19.77	391.77	93	359.04905602062	0.39796524564347	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2021-09-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	55.37	40.41	47.89	0.0115	0.1515	5.4	5.5515	T	F	23.37	398.37	93	359.04905602062	0.5152522800003	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2021-09-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	1	81	55.36	40.34	47.85	0.0115	0.1415	6.19	6.3315	T	F	23.36	390.36	93	359.04905602062	0.51492354500899	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2021-09-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	1	81	54.72	41.18	47.95	0.0242	0.1642	6.11	6.2742	T	F	22.72	397.72	93	359.04905602062	0.49387316907976	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	1	81	50.98	37.73	44.355	0.031	0.281	5.69	5.971	T	F	18.98	376.98	93	359.04905602062	0.37305922667699	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	51.83	37.51	44.67	0.0104	0.2804	5.63	5.9104	T	F	19.83	393.83	93	359.04905602062	0.39987537321841	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	51.16	37.46	44.31	0.0104	0.2704	5.5	5.7704	T	F	19.16	396.16	93	359.04905602062	0.37869170508344	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-25 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.8	38.11	45.455	0.0078	0.2178	5.72	5.9378	T	F	20.8	396.8	93	359.04905602062	0.43105740874442	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.31	37.86	45.085	0.0448	0.3448	5.47	5.8148	T	F	20.31	383.31	93	359.04905602062	0.41523902832385	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	1	81	52.27	37.79	45.03	0.0448	0.3448	5.45	5.7948	T	F	20.27	387.27	93	359.04905602062	0.41395341383986	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	55.8	42.73	49.265	0.3394	0.7894	5.55	6.3394	T	T	23.8	376.8	93	359.04905602062	0.52937512589622	95	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	55.82	42.72	49.27	0.3394	0.7894	5.72	6.5094	T	T	23.82	394.82	93	359.04905602062	0.53003124193673	95	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	53.46	43.25	48.355	0.3442	0.9142	5.75	6.6642	T	T	21.46	383.46	93	359.04905602062	0.45253520788773	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2021-09-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	1	81	40	36.95	38.475	0.0109	1.9109	5.88	7.7909	T	T	8	365	93	359.04905602062	0.10942471178572	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	1	81	37.82	36.75	37.285	0.0187	1.8687	5.89	7.7587	T	T	5.82	364.82	93	359.04905602062	0.07931460330849	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	1	81	37.82	36.75	37.285	0.0004	1.8504	6.05	7.9004	T	T	5.82	366.82	93	359.04905602062	0.07931460330849	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H