MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 30, 2021

[ Wednesday, September 29, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, October 1, 2021 ]

DAY 365 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/01/2021 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.197
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 370

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.49 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 272
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 80

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 87.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-01 04:00:04OBSERVATION20213658045.6400443.8400444.7400400.4900000000000125.127.12TT13.64004369.64004272476.9182519069 00.1974159142949292 14255287.5WETH
2021-10-01 00:00:01FORECAST20213658037.237.237.200.00071.51075.126.6307TT5.2361.2273477.377110166800.0534441471892729214255287.5WETH
2021-09-30 14:45:45FORECAST20213658048.4536.3842.41500.27441.78445.126.9044TT16.45372.45273477.377110166800.2750104240159692242552100WETH
2021-09-30 14:44:56FORECAST20213658048.4536.3842.41500.27441.78445.126.9044TT16.45372.45273477.377110166800.2750104240159692242552100WETH
2021-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST20213658050.236.2143.20500.50022.01025.127.1302TT18.2374.2273477.377110166800.3299347408032492242552100WETH
2021-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST20213658049.6636.2942.97500.66732.17735.127.2973TT17.66373.66273477.377110166800.3125150314355392242552100WETH
2021-09-30 04:00:06FORECAST20213658046.2236.2441.2300.76112.27115.127.3911TT14.22370.22273477.377110166800.212252473998739214255287.5WETH
2021-09-30 00:00:02FORECAST20213658050.1536.3743.2600.95281.85285.126.9728TT18.15373.15272476.918251906900.3283054731950692242552100WETH
2021-09-29 20:00:01FORECAST20213658050.4636.8343.64500.83921.80925.126.9292TT18.46377.46272476.918251906900.3384583978315292242552100WETH
2021-09-29 16:00:01FORECAST20213658050.5236.7943.65500.80941.77945.126.8994TT18.52377.52272476.918251906900.3404373986439692242552100WETH
2021-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST20213658050.236.8843.5400.83531.80535.126.9253TT18.2377.2272476.918251906900.3299347408032492242552100WETH
2021-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST20213658050.3237.8644.0900.85081.93085.127.0508TT18.32376.32272476.918251906900.3338581115830492242552100WETH
2021-09-29 04:00:07FORECAST20213658049.8237.6143.71500.81811.89815.127.0181TT17.82376.82272476.918251906900.3176352100991592242552100WETH
2021-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST20213658049.737.9843.8400.79340.96345.126.0834TF17.7374.7272476.918251906900.313791741258559224235260WETMH
2021-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST20213658049.2437.1243.1800.81781.15785.126.2778TT17.24377.24272476.918251906900.299247442456469224245280WETH
2021-09-28 16:00:02FORECAST20213658049.7537.1743.4600.87181.29185.126.4118TT17.75374.75272476.918251906900.315390765387089224245280WETH
2021-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST20213658050.0537.9243.98500.96111.41115.126.5311TT18.05377.05272476.918251906900.325056734652969224245280WETH
2021-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST20213658050.6538.5744.6101.01081.48085.126.6008TT18.65378.65272476.918251906900.344740266819419224245280WETH
2021-09-28 04:00:07FORECAST20213658050.6838.544.5901.06481.72485.126.8448TT18.68377.68272476.918251906900.3457361184166592242552100WETH
2021-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST20213658046.5838.7342.65501.13892.24894.056.2989TT14.58363.58272476.918251906900.221780342716559214255287.5WETH
2021-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST20213658050.0938.4644.27501.12422.24424.376.6142TT18.09372.09272476.918251906900.3263546533326392242552100WETH
2021-09-27 16:00:03FORECAST20213658050.6538.844.72500.94562.07564.376.4456TT18.65373.65272476.918251906900.3447402668194192242552100WETH
2021-09-27 12:00:04FORECAST20213658048.2439.5143.87500.87141.80144.376.1714TT16.24374.24272476.918251906900.2687340825055992242552100WETH
2021-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST20213658048.5839.2943.93500.83761.87764.66.4776TT16.58375.58272476.918251906900.2789315931235692242552100WETH
2021-09-27 04:00:05FORECAST20213658054.1240.0347.07500.84271.93274.966.8927TT22.12382.12272476.918251906900.4653314593208292242552100WETH
2021-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST20213658047.5939.9343.7600.71881.69884.456.1488TT15.59378.59272476.918251906900.2497739202133892242552100WETH
2021-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST20213658052.4842.0247.2500.34041.03044.815.8404TF20.48392.48272476.918251906900.407209975954849224245280WETMH
2021-09-26 16:00:03FORECAST20213658052.1142.0347.0700.22360.90364.915.8136TF20.11392.11272476.918251906900.394328729835029224235260WETMH
2021-09-26 12:00:03FORECAST20213658053.3841.6447.5100.13180.78184.765.5418TF21.38395.38272476.918251906900.438937498683359224235260WETMH
2021-09-26 08:00:03FORECAST20213658051.141.7346.41500.09740.80745.516.3174TF19.1387.1272476.918251906900.359787351002329224235260WETMH
2021-09-26 04:00:08FORECAST20213658055.5643.1349.34500.1090.7395.516.249TF23.56394.56272476.918251906900.517026414955589234235267.5WETMH
2021-09-26 00:00:04FORECAST20213658056.3740.3248.34500.23330.85335.095.9433TF24.37378.37272476.918251906900.546034879277469234235267.5WETMH
2021-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20213658055.9539.6447.79500.23590.87595.025.8959TF23.95393.95272476.918251906900.531014248018389234235267.5WETMH
2021-09-25 16:00:03FORECAST20213658055.9239.5847.7500.24220.80224.965.7622TF23.92396.92272476.918251906900.529939398008979234235267.5WETMH
2021-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST20213658057.4241.3449.3800.19320.75325.185.9332TF25.42396.42272476.918251906900.583253789992769234235267.5WETMH
2021-09-25 08:00:04FORECAST20213658055.0741.348.18500.27650.82654.945.7665TF23.07383.07272476.918251906900.499424295461969234235267.5WETMH
2021-09-25 04:00:08FORECAST20213658055.0741.2948.1800.27650.80654.945.7465TF23.07387.07272476.918251906900.499424295461969234235267.5WETMH
2021-09-25 00:00:03FORECAST20213658054.9543.0348.9900.16241.01244.996.0024TF22.95372.95272476.918251906900.495112427686599224245280WETMH
2021-09-24 20:00:03FORECAST20213658054.9143.0248.96500.16241.04245.136.1724TF22.91390.91272476.918251906900.493675240435199224245280WETMH
2021-09-24 16:00:03FORECAST20213658054.2943.2748.7800.30341.00345.326.3234TT22.29382.29272476.918251906900.471420849345929224245280WETH
2021-09-24 12:00:03FORECAST20213658047.538.643.0501.18322.45325.337.7832TT15.5376.5272476.918251906900.24720572034199214255287.5WETH
2021-09-24 08:00:04FORECAST20213658048.4138.443.40501.14612.40615.337.7361TT16.41379.41272476.918251906900.2738093905107492242552100WETH
2021-09-24 04:00:07FORECAST20213658048.3438.443.3701.14612.41615.487.8961TT16.34381.34272476.918251906900.2717138353262592242552100WETH
2021-09-24 00:00:03FORECAST20213658050.2938.1444.21500.8111.5615.086.641TT18.29385.29272476.918251906900.3328755447807492242552100WETH
2021-09-23 20:00:04FORECAST20213658050.3440.1545.24500.85981.57984.886.4598TT18.34394.34272476.918251906900.3345137896471292242552100WETH
2021-09-23 16:00:03FORECAST20213658045.9840.1143.04500.88981.64984.86.4498TT13.98392.98272476.918251906900.206035437324849214255287.5WETH
2021-09-23 12:00:04FORECAST20213658042.4140.2941.3501.22771.77774.746.5177TT10.41378.41272476.918251906900.126718037303039214255287.5WETH
2021-09-23 08:00:04FORECAST20213658041.7740.641.18500.9471.4074.76.107TT9.77382.77272476.918251906900.115115724778899214245270WETH
2021-09-23 04:00:07FORECAST20213658041.7341.1341.4300.66631.12634.625.7463TF9.73386.73272476.918251906900.114416440263449214245270WETMH