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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 29, 2021

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DAY 364 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/30/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 44.53°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 31.65°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 38.09°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.183 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 377 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.65 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 2.59 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 4.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 6.63 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 271 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.46 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 79 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 5 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 87.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-30 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2021	364	79	44.52998	31.65008	38.09003	0.64999999999998	2.59	4.04	6.63	T	T	12.52998	376.52998	271	476.45764666845	0.18263517459565	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 00:00:01	FORECAST	2021	364	79	44.29	44.29	44.29	0.0392	1.9792	4.04	6.0192	T	T	12.29	376.29	272	476.9182519069	0.17744032916432	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.89	39.52	43.705	0.1132	2.0532	4.04	6.0932	T	T	15.89	379.89	272	476.9182519069	0.26491283402556	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2021-09-29 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.04	34.62	40.83	0.2163	2.1563	4.04	6.1963	T	T	15.04	379.04	272	476.9182519069	0.24247572888249	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.78	34.23	41.005	0.215	2.155	4.04	6.195	T	T	15.78	379.78	272	476.9182519069	0.26195097689724	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2021-09-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.96	33.36	40.66	0.1739	1.2539	4.04	5.2939	T	F	15.96	377.96	271	476.45764666845	0.26680646266819	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2021-09-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	364	79	48.18	34.04	41.11	0.1007	1.4207	4.04	5.4607	T	F	16.18	381.18	271	476.45764666845	0.27280200108244	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2021-09-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	364	79	45.47	33.58	39.525	0.1787	1.4987	4.04	5.5387	T	F	13.47	378.47	271	476.45764666845	0.20388211497847	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2021-09-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.4	34.15	40.775	0.2087	1.5287	4.04	5.5687	T	F	15.4	380.4	271	476.45764666845	0.25185117363959	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.05	34.1	40.575	0.1324	1.5524	4.04	5.5924	T	F	15.05	381.05	271	476.45764666845	0.24273358392452	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	MH
2021-09-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.96	34.17	40.565	0.236	1.736	4.04	5.776	T	F	14.96	379.96	271	476.45764666845	0.24041823179859	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	MH
2021-09-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	364	79	44.95	33.26	39.105	0.3943	1.1243	4.04	5.1643	T	F	12.95	369.95	271	476.45764666845	0.19195266083172	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2021-09-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	43.35	33.29	38.32	0.4008	1.4508	4.04	5.4908	T	F	11.35	375.35	271	476.45764666845	0.15799987760378	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2021-09-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.98	33.15	40.065	0.3843	1.4643	4.04	5.5043	T	F	14.98	375.98	271	476.45764666845	0.24093171428632	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	MH
2021-09-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.81	33.39	40.1	0.2237	1.2637	4.04	5.3037	T	F	14.81	378.81	271	476.45764666845	0.23658614871339	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	MH
2021-09-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	48.03	32.7	40.365	0.3554	1.5954	4.04	5.6354	T	F	16.03	380.03	271	476.45764666845	0.26870689842145	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	364	79	48.34	33.33	40.835	0.3826	2.0126	4.04	6.0526	T	T	16.34	381.34	271	476.45764666845	0.27720392372618	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2021-09-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	364	79	48.78	32.71	40.745	0.2772	1.9372	3.49	5.4272	T	F	16.78	383.78	271	476.45764666845	0.28948517189496	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	364	79	50.36	32.53	41.445	0.0629	1.6729	3.83	5.5029	T	F	18.36	393.36	271	476.45764666845	0.3355563295268	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	50.89	32.55	41.72	0.0712	1.7612	3.83	5.5912	T	F	18.89	392.89	271	476.45764666845	0.35162935184883	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	50.68	32.37	41.525	0.0092	1.5792	3.83	5.4092	T	F	18.68	394.68	271	476.45764666845	0.34522708693377	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.32	33.1	39.71	0.027	1.597	4.62	6.217	T	T	14.32	389.32	271	476.45764666845	0.22430495967746	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	364	79	51.56	33.45	42.505	0.0278	1.4478	4.69	6.1378	T	T	19.56	391.56	271	476.45764666845	0.37233049827819	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2021-09-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.4	34.25	40.325	0.0242	1.5742	4.14	5.7142	T	F	14.4	375.4	271	476.45764666845	0.2262850272529	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	MH
2021-09-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	364	79	50.38	33.55	41.965	0.0265	1.6265	4.03	5.6565	T	F	18.38	391.38	271	476.45764666845	0.3361576546894	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	50.88	34.01	42.445	0.0195	1.4895	4.03	5.5195	T	F	18.88	393.88	271	476.45764666845	0.35132350899353	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2021-09-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	51.19	35.27	43.23	0.0199	1.6699	4.07	5.7399	T	F	19.19	392.19	271	476.45764666845	0.3608484806908	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.12	35.45	40.785	0.0221	1.5121	3.98	5.4921	T	F	14.12	381.12	271	476.45764666845	0.21939798945806	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	MH
2021-09-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.1	35.44	40.77	0.0221	1.4821	3.99	5.4721	T	F	14.1	385.1	271	476.45764666845	0.21891070182332	95	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	MH
2021-09-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.63	33.29	40.46	0.2884	1.7584	4.08	5.8384	T	F	15.63	370.63	271	476.45764666845	0.25793958490102	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.61	33.62	40.615	0.2884	1.7684	4.24	6.0084	T	T	15.61	388.61	271	476.45764666845	0.25740714736088	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2021-09-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.28	34.81	40.545	0.2727	1.6427	4.38	6.0227	T	T	14.28	381.28	271	476.45764666845	0.22331861964653	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.01	32.94	39.975	0.7177	2.2177	4.38	6.5977	T	T	15.01	382.01	271	476.45764666845	0.24170305341	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.85	32.95	39.9	0.7017	2.3717	4.22	6.5917	T	T	14.85	383.85	271	476.45764666845	0.2376047447739	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	364	79	46.87	33.06	39.965	0.7017	2.5317	4.22	6.7517	T	T	14.87	385.87	271	476.45764666845	0.23811494236458	95	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2021-09-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	50.42	35.31	42.865	0.1238	1.5838	4.25	5.8338	T	F	18.42	388.42	271	476.45764666845	0.33736156147726	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	49.88	35	42.44	0.1257	1.5057	4.09	5.5957	T	F	17.88	396.88	271	476.45764666845	0.32125373819177	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	49.84	35	42.42	0.1257	1.7157	3.84	5.5557	T	F	17.84	399.84	271	476.45764666845	0.32007335746371	95	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2021-09-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.48	34.66	41.07	0.0956	1.5956	3.69	5.2856	T	F	15.48	389.48	271	476.45764666845	0.25396025408239	95	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2021-09-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.9	34.17	41.035	0.0592	1.4992	3.66	5.1592	T	F	15.9	393.9	271	476.45764666845	0.26518293418372	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2021-09-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	364	79	47.89	34.18	41.035	0.0592	1.4992	3.58	5.0792	T	F	15.89	397.89	271	476.45764666845	0.26491283402556	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2021-09-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	49.56	31.63	40.595	0.0061	1.1461	3.4	4.5461	T	F	17.56	394.56	271	476.45764666845	0.31186212381079	95	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2021-09-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	364	79	49.53	31.62	40.575	0.0021	1.0221	3.46	4.4821	T	F	17.53	399.53	271	476.45764666845	0.31098777025292	95	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2021-09-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	364	79	51.68	31.24	41.46	0.0012	0.8412	3.46	4.3012	T	F	19.68	401.68	271	476.45764666845	0.37607946898337	95	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2021-09-22 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	364	79	43.66	33.38	38.52	0.0018	0.4918	3.46	3.9518	T	F	11.66	400.66	271	476.45764666845	0.16425088399332	95	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	364	79	35.6	34.36	34.98	0	0.47	3.46	3.93	T	F	3.6	389.6	271	476.45764666845	0.050200579308821	95	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2021-09-22 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	364	79	35.03	34.36	34.695	0	0.47	3.46	3.93	T	F	3.03	391.03	271	476.45764666845	0.045506760617566	95	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L