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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 14, 2023

[ Tuesday, June 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 15, 2023 ]

DAY 257 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/15/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.117
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 419

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 34 in
SWE DAY: 164
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -28

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-15 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023257-2839.3999829.1999234.2999533.945142083333000.650.65FF7.39998419.39998164430.59491013314 14.616605404830.1168086096118716 1131122.5DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2023257-2743.73628.25635.99634.4049752000.650.65FF11.736423.736165431.4240166278614.8431325927660.2149378278721161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2023257-2744.79830.18237.4935.2887648000.650.65FF12.798424.798165431.7973070317715.2375936091180.24476045638639161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 09:16:56FORECAST2023257-2744.83430.21837.52635.277744000.650.65FF12.834424.834165431.7926572819215.2326708246710.24580892945478161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 09:16:54FORECAST2023257-2744.83430.21837.52635.277744000.650.65FF12.834424.834165431.7926572819215.2326708246710.24580892945478161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2023257-2745.37430.57837.976127.2095528000.650.65FF13.374425.374165466.3841432627959.328518297470.26182075605377162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:14FORECAST2023257-2746.47231.0138.741127.11912926667000.650.65FF14.472426.472165466.3539337874559.2825059931460.29594800811264162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2023257-2845.6829.28237.481137.419952000.650.65FF13.68424.68164469.2631891387164.4861249268080.27112559618369162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2023257-2844.45628.29236.374141.315628000.650.65FF12.456423.456164470.5297757914866.4932107586720.23492092442946161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2023257-2845.12229.42637.274141.3056896000.650.65FF13.122424.122164470.5265604760566.4880801031850.25428267860977162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2023257-2844.7830.00237.391139.5151048000.650.65FF12.78423.78164469.9459358320565.5645564879430.24423712269906161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2023257-2846.05829.82237.94139.367433440270.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF14.058427.058164469.8979331474465.4884689216490.28284270372731162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023257-2844.7829.98437.382139.24315891667000.650.65FF12.78423.78164469.8575219842165.4244456018380.24423712269906161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023257-2843.19628.79635.99635.8917608000.650.65FF11.196416.196164431.4200936456815.4844268054440.20061969626791161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2023257-2844.36630.16437.26541.3529416000.650.65FF12.366421.366164433.7134600173717.9353273832320.2323683247458161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023257-2848.1131.87439.99240.8478544000.650.65FF16.11425.11164433.5026864030917.7076546162020.35032035012843162131123DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2023257-2847.89431.96439.92937.7768888000.650.65FF15.894425.894164432.2153315069316.3277505159930.3429405110405162131123DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:04FORECAST2023257-2846.50830.77638.64238.2191968000.650.65FF14.508423.508164432.4013674672216.5260329598190.29710064136183162131123DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:15FORECAST2023257-2848.68632.46840.57737.3147523000.650.65FF16.686429.686164432.0207322270516.1207466115170.37027122136525162131123DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2023257-2847.55231.8239.68636.7204272000.650.65FF15.552421.552164431.7701341454715.8547837780230.33137822068364162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:04FORECAST2023257-2849.31631.8240.56840.4734232000.650.65FF17.316428.316164433.3462611024817.5390066177380.39249729611822162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:06FORECAST2023257-2848.95631.38840.17240.6221056000.650.65FF16.956424.956164433.4083936313317.6059615340180.37974857298794162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:04FORECAST2023257-2848.34432.48640.41538.3780936000.650.65FF16.344425.344164432.4681488858116.5973030969580.35837932553355162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023257-2848.03831.6439.83938.7163928000.650.65FF16.038423.038164432.6102401047316.7491079851970.34785395546458162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:10FORECAST2023257-2847.85831.49639.67737.6000221000.650.65FF15.858426.858164432.1408823699516.2485067274240.34171624707369162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023257-2846.79633.04439.9236.9189200.010.560.57FF14.796429.796164431.853871013715.9435785156450.30639459646435162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:05FORECAST2023257-2847.13831.35239.24539.108084000.580.58FF15.138430.138164432.7746043912916.9249855816010.31759458800507162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:06FORECAST2023257-2847.1230.88439.00239.4238496000.580.58FF15.12428.12164432.9069892307517.0668600342220.31700081627731162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023257-2846.02231.42438.72338.634135798120.015748040.025748040.580.60574804FF14.022425.022164432.5757020469616.7121884158490.28171639914563162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023257-2846.23831.24438.74138.2903217199130.007874020.007874020.60.60787402FF14.238427.238164432.4312633022316.5579321935910.28850639557908162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:14FORECAST2023257-2844.70830.93837.82338.645445550020.007874020.007874020.520.52787402FF12.708423.708164432.580451211816.7172642733090.24214982449637161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:05FORECAST2023257-2848.57834.37641.47737.62708560.019685050.019685050.550.56968505FF16.578432.578164432.152276473916.2606306991180.36650184991176162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:05FORECAST2023257-2847.1233.31440.21740.334620800.020.570.59FF15.12429.12164433.2882361216217.4765167010660.31700081627731162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023257-2850.84635.94243.39439.73693920.027559070.047559070.540.58755907FF18.846436.846164433.0381473654417.2076105331410.44781445686174162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023257-2847.98436.10442.04439.2995512000.590.59FF15.984426.984164432.85488975417.0110029020580.34600836595924162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023257-2850.19837.68843.94338.007657600.020.540.56FF18.198440.198164432.3124195743416.4311824194090.42419624679725162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:09FORECAST2023257-2850.5437.88644.21336.972822057143000.770.77FF18.54444.54164431.8766030364815.9676967947110.43663305867098162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:04FORECAST2023257-2854.44641.93648.19133.5092032000.420.42FF22.446454.446164430.4095531537114.4226811758490.58006658715574163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023257-2850.66638.64244.65441.0531184000.460.46FF18.666436.666164433.5883759825917.8001549360770.44123155785129162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:07FORECAST2023257-2852.17840.83846.50839.91404000.70.7FF20.178444.178164433.1122914894617.2872613270020.49685517415989162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:04FORECAST2023257-2850.7236.3243.5237.881588000.310.31FF18.72443.72164432.2593871613816.374672013580.44320480831564162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:06FORECAST2023257-2851.31437.43644.37537.4928096000.230.23FF19.314446.314164432.0957367417316.200483186630.46499289831878162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:10FORECAST2023257-2850.10834.17842.14337.82461490000FF18.108448.108164432.2354152965516.3491381297340.42093538325452162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:06FORECAST2023257-2852.48437.02244.75335.1002728000.080.08FF20.484443.484164431.0850692011515.1312035289670.50815507219454163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:07FORECAST2023257-2855.43639.0247.22840.3866952000.220.22FF23.436453.436164433.3100077111817.4999592085410.61550932799204163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:04FORECAST2023257-2856.5737.45447.01241.4779512000.130.13FF24.57448.57164433.7655849714317.9917077656840.65493640106257163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:06FORECAST2023257-2856.87638.44447.6638.23882000.060.06FF24.876447.876164432.4096161980816.5348334800670.66531374710664163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023257-2856.46238.2147.33638.0678992000.050.05FF24.462447.462164432.3377547983616.4581900700180.65124532375814163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:15FORECAST2023257-2853.43836.544.96937.515769286957000.040.04FF21.438450.438164432.1054057673116.2107667104130.54330123374984163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:08FORECAST2023257-2855.29237.99446.64334.55860080000FF23.292439.292164430.8553994400914.8897597517750.61040607614155163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:05FORECAST2023257-2855.29237.34646.31940.566000.040.04FF23.292442.292164433.3849505542617.5806939041840.61040607614155163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023257-2855.32839.75847.54341.5315992000.390.39FF23.328426.328164433.7879493747118.015907251220.6116837126434163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:08FORECAST2023257-2856.94841.03648.99236.9928008000.310.31FF24.948439.948164431.8850278471615.9766368036520.66773760601791163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:09FORECAST2023257-2855.41840.147.75937.0549896000.280.28FF23.418434.418164431.9112494267616.0044668556310.61487249470984163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:18FORECAST2023257-2854.53639.246.86837.53744230000FF22.536437.536164432.1145324178416.2204743276260.5833203270989163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:07FORECAST2023257-2855.6737.34646.50834.9502336000.030.03FF23.67453.67164431.021483987715.0643015519890.62375923124184163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:08FORECAST2023257-2854.53637.34645.94140.1228464000.090.09FF22.536451.536164433.1996664865217.381203678970.5833203270989163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023257-2853.81636.82445.3240.03438480.031496080.031496080.090.12149608FF21.816447.816164433.1626554048617.3414004274680.55714917407351163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:05FORECAST2023257-2851.5333.33242.43138.8685416000.460.46FF19.53436.53164432.6741053054216.8174114613060.4729454444012162131123DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:08FORECAST2023257-2852.0729.71440.89238.9348632000.440.44FF20.07437.07164432.7019363972616.8471907000020.4928671103829162131123DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:18FORECAST2023257-2854.21237.34645.77936.96241348571400.020.180.2FF22.212449.212164431.8722136898415.9630393353950.57158175393672163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:06FORECAST2023257-2849.6440.31644.97838.82215600.110.380.49FF17.64439.64164432.6546373388516.7965858248920.40407103871647162132126DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:10FORECAST2023257-2849.7338.9344.3341.666329600.070.320.39FF17.73447.73164433.8441014069718.0766913242390.4073013967323162131123DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:08FORECAST2023257-2851.31441.70246.50841.360994400.060.610.67FF19.314451.314164433.716818272917.9389588917710.46499289831878162131123DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:06FORECAST2023257-2839.4734.7937.1341.0364712000.30.3FF7.47435.47164433.581428101417.7926517871380.11808737839217161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:09FORECAST2023257-2839.4734.7937.1339.9127432000.280.28FF7.47450.47164433.1117486989417.2866780027240.11808737839217161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:16FORECAST2023257-2833.58431.13632.3641.339991672727000.140.14FF1.584421.584164433.7080593710217.9294875627930.041737767278281161131122.5DRYL