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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 12, 2023

[ Sunday, June 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 13, 2023 ]

DAY 255 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/13/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.41°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.907
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 438

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.26 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 40 in
SWE DAY: 162
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-13 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023255-3067.4099653.2299260.31994141.8222229166700.260.390.65FF35.40996438.40996162469.72311220739 66.6171759285870.9073104435078516 5132129DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2023255-2960.87245.44653.15938.31564800.260.390.65FF28.872431.872163431.8119704830216.5451554632140.76170276386527164132128DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:01FORECAST2023255-2963.44646.99455.2241.057938400.260.390.65FF31.446434.446163432.9648232580317.7766430426950.8296664067538164132128DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:01FORECAST2023255-2962.09645.5953.84341.212918400.260.390.65FF30.096433.096163433.0297370809317.846419219090.7957133230266164132128DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:13FORECAST2023255-2964.07646.90455.4940.763967500.260.390.65FF32.076435.076163432.8416224660317.6443418308530.84419889157551164132128DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2023255-3062.5146.79654.65339.925118400.260.390.65FF30.51430.51162431.8598060498417.2420538887410.80652964811892164132128DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:02FORECAST2023255-3065.78647.5756.67843.851987200.260.390.65FF33.786434.786162433.5077000028119.0101741116250.87942318952974165132129DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023255-3062.52846.34654.43744.01897200.260.390.65FF30.528431.528162433.577410797119.085631905710.80699187604527164132128DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2023255-3063.46447.31855.39141.761380800.260.390.65FF31.464432.464162432.6324319915718.067327738830.83009327583131164132128DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2023255-3062.74446.54454.64441.869227200.260.390.65FF30.744430.744162432.677697512618.1158808215280.81248598710164164132128DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:09FORECAST2023255-3064.18448.66856.42640.903900500.260.390.65FF32.184434.184162432.2720869614417.6816144339980.84660578555594164132128DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:05FORECAST2023255-3063.93248.256.06640.28734880.007874020.177874020.390.56787402FF31.932437.932162432.0125036001317.40463841850.84095127288363164132128DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2023255-3064.23848.23656.23742.416193600.190.390.58FF32.238438.238162432.9070805972618.3622705414240.84779997135498164132128DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023255-3063.73447.51655.62542.580915200.190.390.58FF31.734436.734162432.9760980181418.4365185133370.83641408636262164132128DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023255-3062.11447.98455.04941.55509520.011811030.201811030.390.59181103FF30.114435.114162432.5458148117.9744825127910.79619094268683164132128DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023255-3062.99648.5655.77841.348258400.210.390.6FF30.996436.996162432.4589206068417.8814231966370.81877252465536164132128DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:13FORECAST2023255-3062.52848.59655.56241.4107865500.130.390.52FF30.528437.528162432.4851941209417.9095520597780.80699187604527164132128DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023255-3063.82448.9256.37241.155217600.180.370.55FF31.824439.824162432.3777810452217.7946016643210.83848673624305164132128DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:04FORECAST2023255-3064.20248.45256.32743.6647720.023622060.123622060.470.59362206FF32.202438.202162433.4295085004118.9256006667430.84700453339683164132128DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:04FORECAST2023255-3064.56248.2956.42643.6844520.015748040.085748040.470.55574804FF32.562439.562162433.4377297142818.9344896986930.8548355389121165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023255-3062.72646.95854.84242.878851200.120.470.59FF30.726434.726162433.1008581954518.5708672531550.81203186183635164132128DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2023255-3064.54447.94856.24642.11379120.015748040.135748040.420.55574804FF32.544442.544162432.7803005062518.2260192109930.85445049522643165132129DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:09FORECAST2023255-3065.13848.12856.63341.36254445714300.140.630.77FF33.138446.138162432.4649237897417.8878496364080.86679654330239165132129DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:04FORECAST2023255-3065.31849.71257.51538.5178616000.420.42FF33.318451.318162431.2652446454416.6114150061430.87039159089901165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2023255-3062.54648.07455.3145.3843912000.460.46FF30.546438.546162434.1463215032819.7034664931460.80745343045189164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:06FORECAST2023255-3064.450.95457.67744.7212736000.70.7FF32.4443.4162433.8702757104519.4032313069550.8513455021051165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:04FORECAST2023255-3064.34649.67657.01141.87072400.010.30.31FF32.346447.346162432.6783256654518.116554754720.85016982773915165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:05FORECAST2023255-3064.448.45256.42641.6342688000.230.23FF32.4449.4162432.5790643493718.0101130423740.8513455021051165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:10FORECAST2023255-3065.46248.5657.01141.89109330000FF33.462452.462162432.6868736869418.1257261953050.87321896120515165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023255-3063.42848.36255.89539.1391992000.080.08FF31.428446.428162431.5280197903416.8896611269560.82923885301291164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:05FORECAST2023255-3064.43649.04656.74144.8209928000.220.22FF32.436452.436162433.9118170080219.4483584259520.85212585919573165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:04FORECAST2023255-3062.7846.23854.50945.735424000.130.13FF30.78446.78162434.2922630283519.8625407895210.81339220599183164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:05FORECAST2023255-3062.67245.96854.3242.8672608000.060.06FF30.672443.672162433.0960065005818.5656394620990.81066542609481164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:05FORECAST2023255-3063.10446.77854.94142.5336848000.050.05FF31.104445.104162432.9563116998118.415227294010.82142595928267164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:15FORECAST2023255-3063.82447.01255.41841.854520486957000.040.04FF31.824449.824162432.6715255097718.1092592285710.83848673624305164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:07FORECAST2023255-3061.39445.57253.48338.9514720000FF29.394436.394162431.4486702069816.8055607970040.77657254121245164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023255-3060.65644.16852.41244.9325984000.040.04FF28.656437.656162433.9582974984819.4988739038470.75539501859742164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:05FORECAST2023255-3059.21642.5350.87345.909316800.050.340.39FF27.216423.216162434.3645105987519.9413779237550.71114904090568164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:07FORECAST2023255-3061.80843.10652.45741.967117600.050.260.31FF29.808433.808162432.7187735460718.1599596571360.78798134576658164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:08FORECAST2023255-3061.3444.13252.73641.834572800.020.260.28FF29.34430.34162432.6631536459318.1002781990780.77505915594017164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:17FORECAST2023255-3060.67443.0751.87242.30128150000FF28.674432.674162432.8589159740818.3104868544050.75592407057635164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:07FORECAST2023255-3062.52846.25654.39239.4220216000.030.03FF30.528451.528162431.6474933279117.0164168055590.80699187604527164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:07FORECAST2023255-3061.73645.553.61844.1441592000.090.09FF29.736452.736162433.6296530462719.1422164379150.78602199336112164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023255-3062.04246.38254.21244.2036912000.090.09FF30.042448.042162433.6544906977919.1691291942980.79427647901602164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:04FORECAST2023255-3062.04242.15252.09743.328718400.310.150.46FF30.042434.042162433.2890604794618.7738596873150.79427647901602164132128DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:06FORECAST2023255-3062.07840.31651.19743.364437600.30.140.44FF30.078434.078162433.3039944205218.7899840278790.79523503890625164132128DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:17FORECAST2023255-3063.35643.59253.47442.2508230857140.023622060.033622060.170.20362206FF31.356442.356162432.837762231618.2877517168640.82752179378057164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:06FORECAST2023255-3060.02641.14450.58542.4993640.102362260.362362260.120.48236226FF28.026437.026162432.9419321347318.3997567646570.73649594949035164132128DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:09FORECAST2023255-3061.50243.1652.33145.4666360.070866180.280866180.110.39086618FF29.502443.502162434.1805263673119.7407279506310.77958189750266164132128DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:08FORECAST2023255-3063.0542.5352.7945.34078240.062992160.392992160.280.67299216FF31.05446.05162434.1281821010919.6837114383530.82010230729002164132128DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:06FORECAST2023255-3063.48242.7153.09643.5929032000.30.3FF31.482447.482162433.3994822058718.8931416747310.83051946013426164131124DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:08FORECAST2023255-3065.26443.32254.29342.6138232000.280.28FF33.264460.264162432.9898828240718.4513543140540.86932018427385165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:16FORECAST2023255-3058.94639.7449.34343.074685272727000.140.14FF26.946445.946162433.1828119603918.6592132907490.70245242519472164131124DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:05FORECAST2023255-3055.92236.5946.25643.9920136000.10.1FF23.922423.922162433.5661585316719.0734483426250.59807714084835163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023255-3055.59834.53845.06847.77039680000FF23.598422.598162435.135741978720.7866070561850.58630194991382163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:08FORECAST2023255-3050.57634.86242.71948.0052776000.110.11FF18.576421.576162435.2328177240620.8934722354740.40048828018002162131123DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023255-3058.40627.19442.847.2307934040680.023622060.473622060.180.65362206FF26.406423.406162434.9125055387720.5412626979470.68471080749877163132127DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023255-3054.42827.30240.86548.74691840.023622060.393622060.150.54362206FF22.428405.428162435.5389564591721.2311819705360.54320633873628163132127DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:17FORECAST2023255-3042.9825.44834.21448.4777904418980.15748040.157480400.1574804FF10.98413.98162435.4279309396521.1085839886420.1676972373436161132125DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:09FORECAST2023255-3045.82437.97641.947.182634400.0800.08FF13.824428.824162434.8925670581820.5193769947830.24291317922636161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023255-3044.20439.00241.60350.899655200.0800.08FF12.204414.204162436.4243160087622.2138472057420.19803486118227161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:07FORECAST2023255-3046.36439.27242.81850.409131200.2100.21FF14.364418.364162436.2230030698221.9896225942050.25900942031763162132126DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:05FORECAST2023255-3049.24443.2546.24746.782205600.1100.11FF17.244448.244162434.7266896246720.3374733738290.35316948903637162132126DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:07FORECAST2023255-3049.24443.2546.24746.886312800.1300.13FF17.244444.244162434.7698322120720.3847543490990.35316948903637162132126DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023255-3039.6536.9538.347.73389589090900.150.010.16FF7.65416.65162435.1206510289520.77000385620.10108581798733161132125DRYL