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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 11, 2023

[ Saturday, June 10, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, June 12, 2023 ]

DAY 254 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/12/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.814
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 427

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.65 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 44 in
SWE DAY: 161
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.94 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-12 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023254-3161.3799639.1150.2449843.761723500.650.040.69FF29.37996427.37996161432.84398282357 18.9419986949640.8138727103187816 41331212DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2023254-3057.50638.87648.19142.87160800.650.040.69FF25.506423.506162433.0978262377718.5676002321180.703381313595751641331212DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:01FORECAST2023254-3058.69438.31848.50644.837266400.650.040.69FF26.694424.694162433.9185953102919.4557236538410.740197414788531641331212DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2023254-3058.49637.8548.17344.860587200.650.040.69FF26.496424.496162433.9283084335719.4662787190330.734228693563341641331212DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:08FORECAST2023254-3060.31440.6450.47744.097472500.650.040.69FF28.314426.314162433.6101720205919.1211126363980.786316297200281641331212DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:04FORECAST2023254-3160.4439.565043.416173600.560.040.6FF28.44430.44161432.699050100218.7861370757050.789692031663231641331212DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:01FORECAST2023254-3160.74639.66850.20745.584968800.580.040.62FF28.746429.746161433.6065971339419.7659432018250.797758968163461641331212DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:01FORECAST2023254-3160.27838.98449.63145.659752800.580.040.62FF28.278429.278161433.6378019254719.7997948406520.78534604630431641331212DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023254-3159.5438.7549.14544.5633800.580.040.62FF27.54428.54161433.1797291846819.3039528799540.764900053755921641331212DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023254-3160.24239.59649.91944.453467200.60.040.64FF28.242430.242161433.1337364047819.2542963444830.784373244723991641331212DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:12FORECAST2023254-3160.24240.53250.38744.4958233500.520.040.56FF28.242431.242161433.1514617672919.2734309265920.784373244723991641331212DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023254-3162.02441.6351.82744.360794400.550.040.59FF30.024432.024161433.0949476882219.2124359300760.829403879870271641331212DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:04FORECAST2023254-3160.76441.25251.00846.878712800.570.040.61FF28.764429.764161434.1455971968920.3521867643770.798227669515621641331212DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2023254-3160.99841.1851.08946.880385600.540.040.58FF28.998430.998161434.1462929734620.3529456214060.80426152307971641331212DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023254-3159.6339.61449.62245.865586400.590.040.63FF27.63427.63161433.7236586059519.8929899375150.767449555804151641331212DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2023254-3161.57440.80251.18845.3041160.007874020.537874020.040.57787402FF29.574433.574161433.4893539742419.6388519772140.818641509591761641331212DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:09FORECAST2023254-3162.7841.8152.29544.60393885714300.770.040.81FF30.78436.78161433.1966977100919.3222790177770.846545603650221641331212DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2023254-3163.543.3453.4241.87143200.40.060.46FF31.5441.5161432.0495871424318.0905349086620.86177538422907165132129DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2023254-3160.51241.37850.94548.440203200.460.040.5FF28.512431.512161434.7937912751221.0614995994650.79160690860264164132128DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:05FORECAST2023254-3161.05242.7151.88148.055459200.70.040.74FF29.052435.052161434.634317861820.8865517289280.805638271475561641331212DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2023254-3162.11443.32252.71845.101097600.310.040.35FF30.114439.114161433.4045510098819.5470209553810.83150638127692164132128DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023254-3161.98844.09653.04244.836696800.210.060.27FF29.988440.988161433.2940423765519.4274736032840.82855820807841164132128DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:10FORECAST2023254-3162.56443.28652.92545.1291421000.040.04FF30.564442.564161433.4162681018119.5597043516180.84176832442543164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023254-3161.35844.83453.09642.28376800.070.050.12FF29.358439.358161432.2231968963418.2760253817830.81332817099596164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:04FORECAST2023254-3162.49243.68253.08748.069176800.220.040.26FF30.492444.492161434.6400063805420.8927873110590.84015449611967164132128DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2023254-3160.83641.03650.93648.67266400.130.040.17FF28.836439.836161434.8900689801221.1672582044060.80009597363514164132128DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:05FORECAST2023254-3159.25240.92850.0945.759827200.060.040.1FF27.252437.252161433.6795502591819.8451012800340.75663900340048164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:05FORECAST2023254-3159.55841.59450.57645.49532800.050.040.09FF27.558437.558161433.5691852991519.7253722958770.76541118388555164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:14FORECAST2023254-3160.87242.94451.90844.89065248695700.040.040.08FF28.872441.872161433.316599656719.4518648920190.80102621957547164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:06FORECAST2023254-3159.82842.5351.17941.8038912000.040.04FF27.828430.828161432.0211324610618.0601644175030.77300406574776164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023254-3159.75641.39650.57647.6259048000.080.08FF27.756432.756161434.4560866582720.6913642229670.77099293349623164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:05FORECAST2023254-3156.04838.80447.42648.445183200.390.040.43FF24.048420.048161434.7958544251321.0637648222260.65520079789253163132127DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:07FORECAST2023254-3155.86839.9247.89444.672428800.30.050.35FF23.868427.868161433.2253477381719.3532285011880.64905286407555163132127DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:07FORECAST2023254-3155.16640.6447.90344.62204800.280.040.32FF23.166425.166161433.2042734303519.3304618828140.6247145998187163132127DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:17FORECAST2023254-3157.43441.39649.41544.9688071000.040.04FF25.434428.434161433.3492683120219.4871996536490.70107541720229164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:07FORECAST2023254-3161.53844.97853.25842.414365600.030.040.07FF29.538444.538161432.2781457439418.3348033144740.81776257500602164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:06FORECAST2023254-3161.93444.18653.0646.96499200.070.060.13FF29.934446.934161434.1814799060420.3913297303350.82728469833293164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:03FORECAST2023254-3161.2544.67252.96147.089074400.080.050.13FF29.25442.25161434.233070826420.4476333790850.81063581307304164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:04FORECAST2023254-3155.14839.99247.5746.016219200.460.040.5FF23.148428.148161433.786461659419.9612129057110.62408348081487163132127DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:06FORECAST2023254-3155.440.47847.93945.988273600.440.040.48FF23.4428.4161433.7748121676619.9485547427550.63288822809968163132127DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:17FORECAST2023254-3156.58842.02649.30745.05935588571400.180.040.22FF24.588434.588161433.3871096273319.5281440089790.67339487576908163132127DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:06FORECAST2023254-3156.94840.44248.69545.013188800.380.040.42FF24.948432.948161433.3678169911819.5072673660680.68530251000231163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:08FORECAST2023254-3157.93841.28849.61348.189167200.320.040.36FF25.938437.938161434.6897564639720.9473373543690.71704255353456164132128DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:07FORECAST2023254-3159.70240.6450.17148.137802400.610.040.65FF27.702438.702161434.6684615906120.9239845135610.76947805831381641331212DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023254-3158.92841.61250.2746.396220800.30.040.34FF26.928439.928161433.9447882925220.1333982126290.74716123654106164132128DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:07FORECAST2023254-3160.18842.1751.17945.586880800.280.040.32FF28.188451.188161433.6073950196319.7668086307580.7829092687176164132128DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:16FORECAST2023254-3156.0338.40847.21945.38767567272700.140.040.18FF24.03443.03161433.5242450448719.676657830360.65458781199537163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:05FORECAST2023254-3151.96234.46643.21445.899989600.10.040.14FF19.962423.962161433.7380043855719.9085698904230.5086887901138163132127DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023254-3151.7132.97242.34149.530576000.040.04FF19.71422.71161435.2448966047921.5579304298960.49939845089434163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023254-3153.22234.55643.88949.415644800.110.040.15FF21.222427.222161435.1974065419621.5055604595580.55496951015005163132127DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023254-3157.18238.49847.8448.8486640.212598540.632598540.040.67259854FF25.182421.182161434.9629246537721.2473577588690.692941476810261631331210.5DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023254-3155.11236.84245.97750.20992960.177165450.517165450.040.55716545FF23.112407.112161435.5253254254221.8676959286270.622820248495321631331210.5DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:17FORECAST2023254-3157.27238.64247.95748.414088747826000.040.04FF25.272427.272161434.7829719659121.0496213908010.69585764569537163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:09FORECAST2023254-3158.49644.63651.56647.6514120.059055150.079055150.040.11905515FF26.496439.496161434.4666755665820.7029505576930.73422869356334164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023254-3156.76843.08849.92851.33714160.059055150.079055150.040.11905515FF24.768425.768161435.9895584626522.3824576989190.67937174943829163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:07FORECAST2023254-3154.5940.22647.40850.85183280.059055150.209055150.040.24905515FF22.59427.59161435.7898509320622.1607126355340.60436202906085163132127DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:05FORECAST2023254-3161.91641.14451.5347.39041600.110.040.15FF29.916454.916161434.3582948185220.58442028450.82685886169767164132128DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023254-3161.91640.6451.27847.494523200.130.040.17FF29.916450.916161434.4015348085220.6316937730790.82685886169767164132128DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023254-3150.28839.8345.05947.8372158909090.035433090.145433090.050.19543309FF18.288433.288161434.5437883996220.7873650197260.44712626331213162132126DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:08FORECAST2023254-3153.94241.6347.78655.9731016000.040.04FF21.942454.942161437.8849274956524.5097775358230.58112312320775163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:06FORECAST2023254-3152.95243.91648.43459.9751872000.040.04FF20.952429.952161439.5032888021226.3592920209230.54509348614168163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:06FORECAST2023254-3150.9936.64443.81760.9036057894790.027559070.027559070.040.06755907FF18.99422.99161439.8763771898526.7900574724750.47287359733633162131123DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:11FORECAST2023254-3141.6335.90638.76859.46340880.153543390.433543390.040.47354339FF9.63421.63161439.2972523167826.1221120992290.17536070185102161132125DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:07FORECAST2023254-3141.6335.90638.76859.0302520.153543390.433543390.040.47354339FF9.63423.63161439.1226586478325.9215211988910.17536070185102161132125DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:25FORECAST2023254-3144.9643.84444.40259.906627916667000.040.04FF12.96428.96161439.4757031051926.3275074243380.2658734449584162131123DRYL