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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 10, 2023

[ Friday, June 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 11, 2023 ]

DAY 253 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/11/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.177
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 417

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.26 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.65 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 47 in
SWE DAY: 160
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -32

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-11 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023253-3243.3700637.6500240.5100446.50581250.259999999999990.649999999999990.040.68999999999999FF11.37006417.37006160433.36637966433 20.1540555964730.1768250679251616 1133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:01FORECAST2023253-3146.7637.09441.92745.7778720.173228440.563228440.040.60322844FF14.76420.76161433.6870769326319.8532714958760.28340764152423162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:01FORECAST2023253-3146.16636.57241.36946.84940880.192913490.582913490.040.62291349FF14.166420.166161434.1334081493620.3388935121260.2627454220633162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2023253-3146.77836.7741.77446.80217680.212598540.602598540.040.64259854FF14.778420.778161434.1137600106820.3174689473330.28404571661293162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:11FORECAST2023253-3147.62437.54442.58446.888714550.129921330.519921330.040.55992133FF15.624421.624161434.1497572337720.3567240388860.31478104850173162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023253-3249.98238.80444.39346.9190960.177165450.547165450.040.58716545FF17.982420.982160433.539006579220.3412582694340.40686132276107162133129DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2023253-3250.30638.73244.51949.41881040.098425250.568425250.040.60842525FF18.306420.306160434.5792736905421.4763907302820.42006513469753162133129DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2023253-3250.77437.9444.35749.42235280.066929170.536929170.040.57692917FF18.774420.774160434.5807431941721.4780028102290.43929337365667162133129DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2023253-3249.20837.74243.47548.22630080.122047310.592047310.040.63204731FF17.208419.208160434.0838294289820.9342573304580.37577027461585162133129DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2023253-3250.75639.16444.9647.8846560.114173290.534173290.040.57417329FF18.756422.756160433.9416116964120.7791448001680.43855086810979162133129DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:08FORECAST2023253-3252.8838.8445.8647.3144652571430.137795350.767795350.040.80779535FF20.88424.88160433.7039812694520.5204719536580.526942035971851631331210.5DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2023253-3255.81440.60448.20944.684294400.420.040.46FF23.814428.814160432.6033754890319.3305765887860.64600775193353163132127DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2023253-3252.41237.86845.1450.947927200.460.040.5FF20.412422.412160435.2123740521122.1731683497460.50742759299029163132127DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:04FORECAST2023253-3253.6938.85846.27450.69818800.70.040.74FF21.69424.69160435.1091424407422.0592451039790.560538084610991631331210.5DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2023253-3256.42638.28247.35447.83022160.011811030.311811030.040.35181103FF24.426428.426160433.9189406888720.7544390895860.66952364016455163132127DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023253-3257.05638.69647.87647.610986400.230.040.27FF25.056430.056160433.8276011920520.6549600202990.69305082482017163132127DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:09FORECAST2023253-3256.49839.21847.85847.9478101000.040.04FF24.498431.498160433.9679103839620.8078109565840.67224892029449163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023253-3257.50639.4748.48845.11227600.080.040.12FF25.506428.506160432.782967397719.5238246733440.70938962942896164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:04FORECAST2023253-3258.44240.149.27150.934683200.220.040.26FF26.442433.442160435.2069011873722.1671256384320.74200705547082164132128DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2023253-3257.03839.48848.26351.214237600.130.040.17FF25.038430.038160435.3223833743222.2947039747310.69238893012131163132127DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023253-3256.2139.75847.98448.130184800.060.040.1FF24.21429.21160434.0438313448920.8906098139290.66129422336315163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:04FORECAST2023253-3256.06639.84847.95747.951785600.050.040.09FF24.066429.066160433.9695657241420.8096155725290.65576457212692163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:14FORECAST2023253-3256.76840.148.43447.50641968695700.040.040.08FF24.768431.768160433.7840178653820.6075256062070.68238634328591163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:05FORECAST2023253-3255.4939.16447.32744.3453664000.040.04FF23.49422.49160432.4610141379619.1776421256630.63332188863334163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2023253-3255.79637.68846.74250.066815200.040.040.08FF23.796423.796160434.8478674274121.7714478186020.64530706353326163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2023253-3249.92837.9443.93450.4984960.047244120.387244120.040.42724412FF17.928414.928160435.0265510955221.9681865503910.40467051234787162132126DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:06FORECAST2023253-3252.23239.90246.06746.82040240.051181130.311181130.040.35118113FF20.232423.232160433.4977991139620.296541394030.49991474293135163132127DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023253-3252.4340.5546.4946.80672480.023622060.283622060.040.32362206FF20.43421.43160433.4920875007920.2903448426270.50817877707529163132127DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:16FORECAST2023253-3253.90639.77646.84147.2854383000.040.04FF21.906421.906160433.6918749017320.5073103918770.56943394116372163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:06FORECAST2023253-3257.05641.23449.14545.259798400.030.040.07FF25.056434.056160432.8448262982619.5904695767420.69305082482017163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:06FORECAST2023253-3257.43440.76649.149.79005600.090.040.13FF25.434436.434160434.7332066391521.6453907036230.70680288941865164132128DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:03FORECAST2023253-3257.52440.76649.14549.894950400.090.040.13FF25.524431.524160434.7766736669321.6931605676890.71003464401098164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023253-3251.13439.54245.33848.147760.307086780.457086780.040.49708678FF19.134424.134160434.0511458861620.8985903998520.45418491136455162132126DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:06FORECAST2023253-3250.4539.4744.9648.06303760.295275750.435275750.040.47527575FF18.45424.45160434.0158826549420.8601216870420.42596344041097162132126DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:16FORECAST2023253-3253.34840.15446.75147.3342654857140.011811030.181811030.040.22181103FF21.348429.348160433.712238903320.5294502606520.54639201971022163132127DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:05FORECAST2023253-3251.09840.33445.71647.18448320.259842660.379842660.040.41984266FF19.098427.098160433.6497622774520.4615399228640.45269250214292162132126DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:07FORECAST2023253-3251.8941.14446.51750.52075520.212598540.322598540.040.36259854FF19.89430.89160435.035759434221.9783351056210.48564261304049162132126DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:07FORECAST2023253-3249.35240.29844.82550.41084240.326771830.606771830.040.64677183FF17.352430.352160434.9902848903921.9282266971410.38150055642096162133129DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023253-3254.48240.3747.42648.776910400.30.040.34FF22.482432.482160434.3127741371621.1844352696640.59297282262568163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:07FORECAST2023253-3256.53441.4548.99248.091160800.280.040.32FF24.534441.534160434.0275889591820.8728905722720.67360814149144163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:15FORECAST2023253-3252.59241.4547.02147.41225567272700.140.040.18FF20.592437.592160433.7447604688620.5648174800560.51493780916019163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023253-3248.05638.343.17847.432864800.10.040.14FF16.056423.056160433.7533533083720.5741641640220.3310040972182162132126DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023253-3247.40836.96842.18850.9384832000.040.04FF15.408422.408160435.2084714935822.1688594136730.3067990453272162131123DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023253-3249.98239.57844.7850.980204800.110.040.15FF17.982424.982160435.225711467322.1878959048290.40686132276107162132126DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023253-3252.84440.1946.51750.93877840.240157610.420157610.040.46015761FF20.844414.844160435.2085934809422.1689941011010.52544262076057163132127DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023253-3251.1738.10244.63652.04016960.188976480.338976480.040.37897648FF19.17403.17160435.6630921308722.6719812029510.45567796767732162132126DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:16FORECAST2023253-3255.81439.247.50750.477438347826000.040.04FF23.814420.814160435.0178393421521.9585861655980.64600775193353163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:08FORECAST2023253-3259.01844.651.80950.14919760.019685050.019685050.040.05968505FF27.018432.018160434.8819827280121.8089824845070.76109277818588164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023253-3256.69644.0650.37853.64393280.019685050.019685050.040.05968505FF24.696419.696160436.3226294265623.4060618120780.6796959570828163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:07FORECAST2023253-3253.29442.74648.0252.90465360.145669370.145669370.040.18566937FF21.294424.294160436.0189393811923.0674309510010.54415256754257163132127DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:05FORECAST2023253-3254.53643.8849.20849.7623480.114173290.114173290.040.15417329FF22.536443.536160434.7217228302521.6327736546390.59516385608494163132127DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023253-3253.52843.35848.44349.80898960.125984320.125984320.040.16598432FF21.528439.528160434.7410533608621.6540126055440.55384581865364163132127DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023253-3251.9844.34848.16449.4831526909090.114173290.124173290.040.16417329FF19.98433.98160434.6059629209721.5056732235980.48939740046939162132126DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:07FORECAST2023253-3264.56247.22855.89556.7534136000.040.04FF32.562451.562160437.5937542931924.8349393261780.90153717271847165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:06FORECAST2023253-3263.10445.96854.53660.7656344000.040.04FF31.104428.104160439.2191455073226.6894300173780.87235447814862165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:06FORECAST2023253-3259.95444.38452.16961.3551488000.040.04FF27.954422.954160439.4565711141526.9629233118460.79039168208334164131124DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:10FORECAST2023253-3256.96642.38649.67659.80643120.283464720.283464720.040.32346472FF24.966430.966160438.8320679196426.244979878390.68973510558085163132127DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:07FORECAST2023253-3256.98442.38649.68559.37327440.27559070.27559070.040.3155907FF24.984432.984160438.6569621646726.0445001820730.69039949505686163132127DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:24FORECAST2023253-3264.36443.82654.09560.110020716667000.040.04FF32.364435.364160438.9546806849626.3855749496510.8978879174779165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:09FORECAST2023253-3240.74835.47438.11154.8611808000.040.04FF8.748427.748160436.821424456723.9645391444320.11465584113133161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:05FORECAST2023253-3242.02634.6138.31854.8037152000.040.04FF10.026429.026160436.7979112891623.9381483302460.14270071614121161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:06FORECAST2023253-3255.88639.9247.90355.28902400.060.040.1FF23.886440.886160436.9963769650924.1611031739360.6488055456748163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:06FORECAST2023253-3246.4940.87443.68255.4085800.320.040.36FF14.49433.49160437.0452315104624.2160556737660.27391981287721162132126DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:07FORECAST2023253-3246.4940.87443.68255.624764800.320.040.36FF14.49433.49160437.1335341284724.3154500220890.27391981287721162132126DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:15FORECAST2023253-3257.50657.257.35354.20783465454500.330.040.37FF25.506455.506160436.55389276523.6646412368040.70938962942896164132128DRYL