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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 9, 2023

[ Thursday, June 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 10, 2023 ]

DAY 252 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/10/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.369
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 414

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 48 in
SWE DAY: 159
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -33

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-10 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023252-3348.6100439.1299843.8700148.164273750.389999999999990.389999999999990.040.42999999999999FF16.61004413.61004159433.43423440081 20.8760451183020.3685311542693116 2132126DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2023252-3246.45441.30643.8848.46722320.366141930.366141930.040.40614193FF14.454411.454160434.1840449046121.043695014270.28796895742014162132126DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2023252-3245.48239.5642.52149.64709840.468504190.468504190.040.50850419FF13.482410.482160434.6739480107621.5803002688070.25458429394861162132126DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:01FORECAST2023252-3246.72441.05443.88949.47893280.421260070.421260070.040.46126007FF14.724411.724160434.6042126407121.5037526318470.29759581090669162132126DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:08FORECAST2023252-3246.7244143.86249.0281012571430.625984590.625984590.040.66598459FF14.724411.724160434.4171135513821.2986462310330.29759581090669162133129DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2023252-3347.62442.40445.01446.69470480.401575020.421575020.040.46157502FF15.624412.624159432.8191850084720.2103640757470.33069433677246162132126DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:01FORECAST2023252-3346.2239.95643.08852.60203120.456693160.456693160.040.49669316FF14.22410.22159435.277667689622.8964894564720.27974637156038162132126DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2023252-3347.13840.22643.68252.49438160.696850770.696850770.040.73685077FF15.138411.138159435.2331957881822.8472974646920.31263501570697162133129DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2023252-3348.1824144.59149.80747120.303149770.303149770.040.34314977FF16.182412.182159434.1192382045321.6223814542380.3519234031384162132126DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2023252-3349.44241.73845.5949.69234320.208661530.228661530.040.26866153FF17.442413.442159434.0713375922821.5700218809190.4014968323078162132126DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:09FORECAST2023252-3351.0841.30646.19350.0312333000.040.04FF19.08415.08159434.2122974917221.7241767575370.46826955982509162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:04FORECAST2023252-3350.86442.20646.53547.28042160.074803190.084803190.040.12480319FF18.864410.864159433.064596552320.4754767050270.45937087959446162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2023252-3353.25842.72847.99353.19247120.224409570.224409570.040.26440957FF21.258415.258159435.5213724736623.166458062290.55812983139702163132127DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2023252-3351.63841.39646.51753.30415520.133858340.133858340.040.17385834FF19.638412.638159435.5674290811223.2175538398050.49132045189672162132126DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023252-3351.83642.27847.05750.13498640.055118140.055118140.040.09511814FF19.836412.836159434.2554288988821.7713900219710.49951077025075163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:04FORECAST2023252-3351.11641.55846.33749.98079360.051181130.051181130.040.09118113FF19.116413.116159434.1913249974221.7012269976070.46975433727335162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:13FORECAST2023252-3352.84442.36847.60649.6322532869570.035433090.035433090.040.07543309FF20.844414.844159434.0463307807521.5426974275840.54113724934862163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:05FORECAST2023252-3352.23242.15247.19246.3411152000.040.04FF20.232407.232159432.6708564274620.0504500013880.51588857362384163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2023252-3351.94441.30646.62551.994077600.040.040.08FF19.944407.944159435.0263519441722.618793901030.50397852403825163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2023252-3348.30840.56844.43852.00559040.338582860.338582860.040.37858286FF16.308405.308159435.0311147091422.6240499628190.35678455222671162132126DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:05FORECAST2023252-3351.94442.38647.16548.62761680.248031630.258031630.040.29803163FF19.944410.944159433.6276788833221.0862806026120.50397852403825163132127DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023252-3351.0843.23247.15648.64946160.255905650.255905650.040.29590565FF19.08409.08159433.636793410321.0961965293610.46826955982509162132126DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:16FORECAST2023252-3352.10642.58447.34549.2222455000.040.04FF20.106408.106159433.8756014437621.3563313707250.51067904411822163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:06FORECAST2023252-3352.62843.9748.29947.49918560.027559070.027559070.040.06755907FF20.628416.628159433.1561636424220.5745650106350.53223961107702163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:05FORECAST2023252-3352.77243.55648.16451.98476960.074803190.094803190.040.13480319FF20.772418.772159435.0225011877422.614544495060.538173436572163132127DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:03FORECAST2023252-3352.93443.44848.19152.14565360.07874020.08874020.040.1287402FF20.934413.934159435.0890467241922.6880027156340.54483878314015163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023252-3351.42243.0747.24649.87694320.153543390.153543390.040.19354339FF19.422413.422159434.1481362245921.653981930860.48238985019405162132126DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:05FORECAST2023252-3350.97242.99846.98549.7398720.141732360.141732360.040.18173236FF18.972413.972159434.0911143110121.5916364621670.46381795708522162132126DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:15FORECAST2023252-3349.71242.74646.22949.2514910857140.173228440.173228440.040.21322844FF17.712415.712159433.8877853448321.3696203921110.41236066316153162132126DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:05FORECAST2023252-3350.9944.07847.53448.94525280.122047310.122047310.040.16204731FF18.99415.99159433.7601595933121.2305006658630.46455959156859162132126DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:07FORECAST2023252-3351.72844.83448.28152.39724320.110236280.110236280.040.15023628FF19.728418.728159435.1930558060222.8029163840190.49504307782109162132126DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:07FORECAST2023252-3353.65444.02448.83952.10204320.27559070.27559070.040.3155907FF21.654420.654159435.0710110882822.6680886147890.57428453678597163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023252-3353.31243.82648.56950.78869840.303149770.303149770.040.34314977FF21.312418.312159434.5269235442422.0690568665680.56033906956353163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:06FORECAST2023252-3354.84244.43849.6450.28961360.27559070.27559070.040.3155907FF22.842424.842159434.3196881896721.8417692979310.62190364503923163132127DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:15FORECAST2023252-3357.45246.18451.81849.3758276727270.137795350.137795350.040.17779535FF25.452425.452159433.9395746727321.4261256594170.71942770270228164132128DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023252-3358.94645.08652.01649.02930640.098425250.098425250.040.13842525FF26.946414.946159433.7951990757921.2686777303360.76916198826806164132128DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023252-3359.14445.10452.12452.4222568000.040.04FF27.144415.144159435.2033929891422.8143440275080.77536331896671164131124DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023252-3358.83845.1451.98952.67288160.110236280.110236280.040.15023628FF26.838414.838159435.3069305739722.9288704137820.76573962359468164132128DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023252-3355.43642.02648.73152.81320.181102460.181102460.040.22110246FF23.436402.436159435.3648698386822.9930119437640.64508353442539163132127DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023252-3353.07841.39647.23753.68590960.149606380.149606380.040.18960638FF21.078392.078159435.7247595705123.3922800527840.55075301673798163122126DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:16FORECAST2023252-3355.29242.69248.99252.521796747826000.040.04FF23.292405.292159435.244522611422.85982435220.63950949884766163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:08FORECAST2023252-3358.15444.54651.3552.7334768000.040.04FF26.154413.154159435.3319536415322.9565674776540.74342674956752164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023252-3356.24643.1649.70356.0203912000.040.04FF24.246403.246159436.6835457515224.4631830636030.67583252709541163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023252-3359.7244.40252.06154.9767608000.040.04FF27.72410.72159436.2556228312323.9839210240470.79285710367114164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023252-3364.99445.96855.48152.0167904000.040.04FF32.994428.994159435.0357479372822.6291633169610.91369403798253165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023252-3364.27445.39254.83351.9616864000.040.04FF32.274426.274159435.0129511837222.6040065493470.9013105494007165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:10FORECAST2023252-3363.01446.38254.69851.56224629090900.010.040.05FF31.014422.014159434.8476057237922.4217193453420.87660962654588165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:07FORECAST2023252-3365.28245.84255.56259.9583016000.040.04FF33.282427.282159438.2880421710826.2790066201670.91830914230204165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:06FORECAST2023252-3362.54642.60252.57463.8073752000.040.04FF30.546404.546159439.8409086482428.0650938864270.86641824237185165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023252-3360.85443.26852.06164.106216000.040.04FF28.854402.854159439.9608387691428.2042245616760.82485357299146164131124DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:09FORECAST2023252-3363.82446.50855.16662.1808232000.040.04FF31.824413.824159439.186545866927.3089809603690.89293980723614165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:07FORECAST2023252-3363.73446.16654.9561.8017864000.040.04FF31.734415.734159439.0336703589827.1330651179340.89120613997024165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:24FORECAST2023252-3361.95246.1354.04162.677079916667000.040.04FF29.952410.952159439.3864768835127.539461325930.85267212585253165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:08FORECAST2023252-3354.5940.71247.65155.1466392000.040.04FF22.59426.59159436.3253559014824.061876975710.61192995114448163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:05FORECAST2023252-3354.96841.82848.39855.1144624000.040.04FF22.968426.968159436.3121500161124.0471095867260.62686066330026163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:06FORECAST2023252-3359.84639.79449.8255.82766560.055118140.055118140.040.09511814FF27.846424.846159436.6046072657924.3746160138540.79657378906769164131124DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:06FORECAST2023252-3372.1444.11458.12755.89634880.318897810.318897810.040.35889781FF40.14427.14159436.6327436520924.4061761366780.982477300830191651321118DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:07FORECAST2023252-3372.1444.04258.09156.11253360.318897810.318897810.040.35889781FF40.14427.14159436.7212727088824.5055370887120.982477300830191651321118DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:15FORECAST2023252-3377.37845.06861.22354.6235746545450.330708840.330708840.040.37070884FF45.378438.378159436.1105477596123.8219170631820.996029900191251651321118DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:08FORECAST2023252-3349.78441.07245.42857.14789840.047244120.107244120.130.23724412FF17.784409.784159437.1445879451724.9818944980.4152694300828162132126DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:09FORECAST2023252-3349.80242.4446.12159.74158480.059055150.129055150.070.19905515FF17.802401.802159438.2001578793126.178771891320.4159973545161162132126DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:08FORECAST2023252-3354.7743.23249.00159.1416400.030.040.07FF22.77409.77159437.9566121935125.9014722939680.61906197038416163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023252-3349.85643.39446.62556.455713600.030.040.07FF17.856425.856159436.8617073148724.6633394309750.41818284760084162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:05FORECAST2023252-3349.85643.39446.62556.247302400.030.040.07FF17.856427.856159436.7764368003624.5674963219040.41818284760084162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:16FORECAST2023252-3355.9455.36455.65255.58116989090900.030.040.07FF23.94436.94159436.5035887448824.2613801240210.66434269385245163131123.5DRYL