MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 6, 2023

[ Monday, June 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 7, 2023 ]

DAY 249 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/07/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.952
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 383

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 156
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 25.13 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-07 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023249-3671.2200254.6099862.91557.702726086957000.30.3FF39.22002383.22002156435.53047312061 25.1312955930010.9516492179333816 5121118DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2023249-3564.14843.35853.75354.2817000.30.3FF32.148376.148157434.7346385454823.5981352291340.84863903930415164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2023249-3564.41844.97854.69857.1495488000.30.3FF32.418376.418157435.9188714424824.9125668163430.85420831564086165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2023249-3564.445.10454.75257.1346904000.30.3FF32.4376.4157435.9127581049124.9057404757340.8538413602356165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:13FORECAST2023249-3563.42844.58254.00557.6392831000.30.3FF31.428375.428157436.1202385688125.1376578965070.83310629518342164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:05FORECAST2023249-3667.67645.78856.73256.588000.30.3FF35.676379.676156435.0700878895824.6197461334960.91067147428215165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2023249-3668.945.2357.06560.7915696000.30.3FF36.9380.9156436.7993853948826.553720238470.92703183552021165121118DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2023249-3667.22646.0456.63360.8087896000.30.3FF35.226379.226156436.8064315883526.5616703943830.90401821177003165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2023249-3667.3746.99457.18258.4943232000.30.3FF35.37379.37156435.8566145033225.4951376776150.90618564121808165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2023249-3667.78448.05657.9258.4490592000.30.3FF35.784378.784156435.8379832135425.4743200824570.91221612654528165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:13FORECAST2023249-366847.51657.75858.084957485714000.30.3FF36380156435.6880359595825.3069210457470.91524571237356165121118DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023249-3667.29847.2157.25457.812864000.30.3FF35.298380.298156435.5758896913725.1818896724060.90510647057704165121124DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:04FORECAST2023249-3667.6446.61657.12861.3973008000.30.3FF35.64380.64156437.0470573355526.8335096429860.91015213780448165121124DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:06FORECAST2023249-3668.3648.34458.35261.2397624000.30.3FF36.36382.36156436.9826795474426.7607154684010.92012033056764165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2023249-3668.03647.51657.77659.6364328000.30.3FF36.036381.036156436.3260144370226.0209270388650.91574295324288165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023249-3668.8147.04857.92959.4981808000.30.3FF36.81382.81156436.2692661400425.9572276742830.92591272272962165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:14FORECAST2023249-3668.12647.3957.75859.061536472727000.30.3FF36.126382.126156436.0899058329125.7561398787390.91697650470743165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023249-3666.75847.17456.96657.8356144000.30.3FF34.758376.758156435.58526948425.1923416841970.8967208894827165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:04FORECAST2023249-3667.33447.04857.19161.5276024000.30.3FF35.334375.334156437.1002853920426.8937325685280.90564718994243165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:04FORECAST2023249-3666.61446.88656.7561.5965808000.30.3FF34.614374.614156437.1284558600326.9256182513620.89439678310223165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023249-3664.5843.05253.81660.868224000.30.3FF32.58368.58156436.8307489817226.5891118791070.85748311561245165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023249-3662.5143.0752.7961.1470896000.30.3FF30.51364.51156436.9447969360626.7179026485030.81186755000292164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:15FORECAST2023249-3665.62445.87855.75160.756105547826000.30.3FF33.624370.624156436.7848730085326.53734784620.87739399769825165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:06FORECAST2023249-3665.80446.92256.36361.565172000.30.3FF33.804373.804156437.1156292595626.9110988992530.88061992278571165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2023249-3664.02244.29454.15864.330468000.30.3FF32.022370.022156438.2409980194928.1922484993810.84599237730047164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:05FORECAST2023249-3665.73247.37256.55263.8410264000.30.3FF33.732372.732156438.0423894480427.9650757490720.87933679154558165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2023249-3667.147.15657.12861.865548000.30.3FF35.1380.1156437.2382537211427.0499841730220.90209179654281165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:05FORECAST2023249-3667.9148.81258.36161.8761752000.30.3FF35.91376.91156437.2425904192727.0548991296840.91399302019169165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:09FORECAST2023249-3667.11849.08258.161.402639890909000.30.3FF35.118376.118156437.0492386943126.8359770181430.90236871487978165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023249-3666.8347.2157.0269.6270856000.30.3FF34.83380.83156440.3745717265930.661998001670.897868962622165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:05FORECAST2023249-3664.43646.02255.22972.6580616000.30.3FF32.436365.436156441.5826531570332.0845396145750.85457465300669165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:04FORECAST2023249-3663.93246.41855.17572.6469424000.30.3FF31.932366.932156441.5782382601332.0793088399770.84408331850375164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:06FORECAST2023249-3662.09643.2552.67371.6381456000.30.3FF30.096368.096156441.1771745397331.6051146650730.80176775214841164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023249-3663.42844.9654.19471.3216912000.30.3FF31.428370.428156441.0511510036731.4565139952880.83310629518342164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:22FORECAST2023249-3662.63645.60854.12271.980504716667000.30.3FF30.636368.636156441.3134002404831.7659612875380.81487737641483164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:07FORECAST2023249-3666.93847.5757.25463.8290616000.30.3FF34.938387.938156438.037531206827.9595245625110.89957367590337165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:04FORECAST2023249-3666.77647.42657.10163.9400568000.30.3FF34.776388.776156438.0825945296128.0110259773150.89700877957585165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:05FORECAST2023249-3664.00444.4254.21264.3286384000.30.3FF32.004383.004156438.24025605328.1913989639570.84561180479823164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:05FORECAST2023249-3661.23242.90852.0764.7818688000.30.3FF29.232373.232156438.423951427228.4019229001340.77966491395253164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:06FORECAST2023249-3661.66441.95451.80965.082284000.30.3FF29.664372.664156438.5455939450828.5415488920820.79088792798384164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:14FORECAST2023249-3662.18642.47652.33164.276221054545000.30.3FF30.186375.186156438.2189975303728.1670611555640.80399069835556164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:07FORECAST2023249-3666.70445.08655.89563.98453360.094488240.094488240.30.39448824FF34.704376.704156438.1006482534428.0316656483540.89585372588259165122128DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:08FORECAST2023249-3669.24244.6956.96666.76291680.027559070.027559070.30.32755907FF37.242370.242156439.2243973276229.3239018953140.93116711483424165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023249-3669.11643.91656.51666.5376792000.30.3FF37.116372.116156439.1335924869329.2189301028390.92966505645562165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023249-3669.9849.69459.83763.967176000.30.3FF37.98384.98156438.0936028157328.0236105957880.93947483492166165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:04FORECAST2023249-3669.94450.03659.9963.6258264000.30.3FF37.944386.944156437.9549861137527.8652479174880.93908860394082165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:15FORECAST2023249-3671.38450.32460.85463.174009090909000.30.3FF39.384385.384156437.7713252963927.6557696840140.95310154414924165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023249-3672.03255.77863.90559.4421144000.30.3FF40.032405.032156436.2462468854325.9313993139340.95850271394746165131119DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:07FORECAST2023249-3672.6856.82264.75161.9780992000.30.3FF40.68415.68156437.2841771442727.1020421096380.96338992853591165131119DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:05FORECAST2023249-3669.3553.83461.59263.8223120.133858340.133858340.30.43385834FF37.35400.35156438.034790503727.9563930663820.932434870565371651321118DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:06FORECAST2023249-3669.38653.11461.2562.6264568000.30.3FF37.386396.386156437.5484661483927.4021101131480.93285343615514165121118DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:06FORECAST2023249-3671.61854.84263.2362.2422048000.30.3FF39.618395.618156437.3918866401427.2242353861140.9551133960596165121118DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:15FORECAST2023249-3673.09455.95864.52661.7400136190480.114173290.114173290.30.41417329FF41.094403.094156437.1870173779726.9919324069860.966258891459931651321118DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:07FORECAST2023249-3664.09446.8555.47262.5383496000.30.3FF32.094389.094156437.51257669627.3613144758110.84750847204925164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 20:00:06FORECAST2023249-3663.80646.61655.21164.5759384000.30.3FF31.806403.806156438.3405135526228.3062500013980.84138460844161164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023249-3665.71450.07257.89364.0327704000.30.3FF33.714408.714156438.1202259058728.0540518330270.87901450190714165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023249-3663.48244.27653.87962.693448000.30.3FF31.482399.482156437.5757488669927.4331324576540.83430563632327164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:05FORECAST2023249-3663.0544.2453.64563.0574296000.30.3FF31.05389.05156437.7239022682627.6017441515180.82455504340879164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:15FORECAST2023249-3656.78644.09650.44164.30154392381000.30.3FF24.786381.786156438.2292678961928.1788185183260.64635227142767163121123DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:09FORECAST2023249-3645.33835.74440.54168.4675800.140.320.46FF13.338356.338156439.909952772330.1195698842330.26012252289986162122125DRYL
2023-05-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023249-3646.34635.74441.04570.2605856000.320.32FF14.346360.346156440.627840497230.9587701049960.29003456326293162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023249-3654.01444.88849.45169.6597552000.320.32FF22.014372.014156440.3876427677930.677295388310.55127633576539163121123DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:06FORECAST2023249-3637.14831.134.12469.953479200.320.320.64FF5.148352.148156440.5051124481230.8148652211330.084997697336323161122124DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:05FORECAST2023249-3638.40833.1735.78968.804954400.310.320.63FF6.408362.408156440.0452813457630.277295516930.10384964807531161122124DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:16FORECAST2023249-3639.6538.87639.26369.68583502500.030.320.35FF7.65358.65156440.3980764747830.6895077025490.12522229156682161121122DRYL