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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 6, 2023

[ Wednesday, April 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, April 7, 2023 ]

DAY 188 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/07/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.277
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -39

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.77 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.64 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 173 in
SWE DAY: 95
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.86 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -97

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-07 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023188-9735.0999627.9199431.50995172.712909166670.77000000000010.79000000000014.645.4300000000001TF3.09996-38.9000495445.0359594112 76.8634552336870.2773979583233716 2113126WETL
2023-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2023188-9734.30425.12429.714178.470565157070.842520140.862520144.645.50252014TF2.304-39.69695447.2552438939479.8218961472150.25096627624293162113126WETL
2023-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2023188-9733.6224.06228.841176.024411448571.311024331.331024334.645.97102433TF1.62-40.3895446.3163395186178.5625709836420.22936303088651161114126WETL
2023-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2023188-9734.46625.10629.786175.513675659711.188977021.208977024.645.84897702TF2.466-39.53495446.1195671438178.3000850131310.25623589161397162114128WETL
2023-04-06 04:00:12FORECAST2023188-9732.93624.1728.553176.491196428211.29921331.31921334.645.9592133TF0.936-41.06495446.4959557367578.8026054283380.20884181363819161114126WETL
2023-04-06 00:00:04FORECAST2023188-9733.5326.11429.822181.024324986961.228347121.258347124.645.89834712TF1.53-40.4795448.229246259281.1403967434860.22660007474233161114126WETL
2023-04-05 20:00:01FORECAST2023188-9733.45826.18629.822180.529776684041.070866721.130866724.645.77086672TF1.458-41.54295448.041118805780.884763123260.22440327959847161114126WETL
2023-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2023188-9733.02625.03429.03181.080763031851.196851041.256851044.645.89685104TF1.026-41.97495448.2507004181981.1695788612870.21147862559675161114126WETL
2023-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023188-9733.38625.55629.471181.04364705321.157480941.217480944.645.85748094TF1.386-41.61495448.2365916274281.1503872909240.22221860139162161114126WETL
2023-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2023188-9733.76425.21429.489180.504619575741.035433631.075433634.645.71543363TF1.764-41.23695448.0315426588480.8717631655670.23382271940017161114126WETL
2023-04-05 04:00:13FORECAST2023188-9732.14425.03428.589180.977710274081.129921871.169921874.645.80992187TF0.144-42.85695448.2115239876581.1162953297430.18648330307321161114126WETL
2023-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2023188-9732.95422.06427.509190.759173647410.448819140.468819144.645.10881914TF0.954-40.04695451.8847028895886.2011525071210.20936762382958161112123WETL
2023-04-04 20:00:05FORECAST2023188-9732.73824.92628.832184.163734916931.157480941.237480944.615.84748094TF0.738-39.26295449.4179901186182.7664955991040.20310933318326161114126WETL
2023-04-04 16:00:04FORECAST2023188-9733.54824.94429.246184.072800589741.161417951.231417954.615.84141795TF1.548-38.45295449.3836907940282.7193145038090.22715116090501161114126WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2023188-9733.02624.76428.895184.408341262561.177165991.247165994.615.85716599TF1.026-38.97495449.5102133567482.8934328256930.21147862559675161114126WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023188-9733.63825.35829.498184.10791539721.110236821.190236824.615.80023682TF1.638-35.36295449.3969366121782.7375331855550.22991787560866161114126WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:13FORECAST2023188-9732.12624.2628.193184.625227454531.149606921.239606924.615.84960692TF0.126-39.87495449.5919374313683.0060137099850.18599297919074161114126WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023188-9732.57623.79228.184184.932407176831.066929711.126929714.595.71692971TF0.576-37.42495449.7076076632983.1655104109050.19848960629561161114126WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:04FORECAST2023188-9732.57623.79228.184183.365716953631.066929711.126929714.615.73692971TF0.576-37.42495449.1167169563782.3526088005650.19848960629561161114126WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:04FORECAST2023188-9732.7223.91828.319183.226619479981.027559611.077559614.615.68755961TF0.72-38.2895449.0641414071182.2805045597060.20259288897267161114126WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:02FORECAST2023188-9732.12624.2628.193184.588512037861.149606921.239606924.615.84960692TF0.126-39.87495449.5781059979582.9869536309610.18599297919074161114126WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023188-9731.96424.78228.373184.720783199891.224410111.284410114.615.89441011TF-0.036000000000001-40.03695449.6279291495383.0556232210480.18161602627215161114126WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:10FORECAST2023188-9731.42424.1727.797184.60235034751.248032171.328032174.555.87803217TF-0.576-39.57695449.5833193180482.9941374231380.16749575500473161114126WETL
2023-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2023188-9731.96424.18828.076182.936783587321.625985131.645985134.576.21598513TT-0.036000000000001-40.03695448.9545306114582.1302978070150.18161602627215161115127.5WETL
2023-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2023188-9731.24423.46827.356177.803284271231.637796161.657796164.696.34779616TT-0.756-43.75695446.9997005853779.4780148323340.16295016709941161115127.5WETL
2023-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2023188-9730.72222.11826.42177.510824932861.555118951.565118954.696.25511895TT-1.278-45.27895446.8875631476879.327379986580.15022476790976161115127.5WETL
2023-04-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023188-9733.11622.7327.923178.291046288620.948819411.048819414.725.76881941TF1.116-41.88495447.1865375474179.7293556655130.21413479313076161114126WETL
2023-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2023188-9734.08823.0928.589177.983118267750.897638280.957638284.825.77763828TF2.088-39.91295447.0686128353279.5706657920680.24403020995454161113124.5WETL
2023-04-02 04:00:14FORECAST2023188-9732.61223.59428.103178.167629009931.015748581.065748584.785.84574858TF0.612-42.38895447.1392845020579.6657461569260.19951070799906161114126WETL
2023-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023188-9731.31620.9326.123172.650186876460.637795620.687795624.795.47779562TF-0.684-43.68495445.0116039950676.831336591940.16475871339425161113124.5WETL
2023-04-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023188-9732.34220.60626.474164.05634965850.653543660.693543664.735.42354366TF0.342-41.65895441.63761274972.4534546194940.19192945357578161113124.5WETL
2023-04-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023188-9733.69221.68627.689163.408218184150.62992160.66992164.685.3499216TF1.692-39.30895441.3801533138972.125144394870.23158690175979161113124.5WETL
2023-04-01 12:00:06FORECAST2023188-9732.95422.06427.509166.759173647410.448819140.468819144.645.10881914TF0.954-40.04695442.7067071024973.8254046445760.20936762382958161112123WETL
2023-04-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023188-9731.83821.25426.546167.402241237640.43307110.48307114.825.3030711TF-0.162-42.16295442.9599916230574.1524953763050.17825657684245161112123WETL
2023-04-01 04:00:09FORECAST2023188-9733.54821.86627.707166.466287211580.212598540.252598544.734.98259854TF1.548-38.45295442.5912109607373.676515641110.22715116090501161112123WETL
2023-04-01 00:00:04FORECAST2023188-9733.06219.36426.213174.20352927550.03937010.05937015.435.4893701TF1.062-38.93895445.6136351509377.6274679365750.21253877438511161111121.5WETL
2023-03-31 20:00:05FORECAST2023188-9734.62821.05627.842166.276570580080.055118140.105118145.555.65511814TF2.628-36.37295442.5163526886673.5801015506750.26156253879115162112124WETL
2023-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2023188-9734.46621.14627.806166.076397620250.043307110.053307115.535.58330711TF2.466-37.53495442.4373294454473.4783978470220.25623589161397162111122WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:06FORECAST2023188-9734.77221.77628.274169.780210158960.11811030.11811035.415.5281103TF2.772-38.22895443.8930150490575.3642493831230.26634453954582162112124WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:05FORECAST2023188-9734.03420.40827.221169.296708240470.11811030.11811035.365.4781103TF2.034-35.96695443.703763674975.1175866240680.24231246733675161112123WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:14FORECAST2023188-9734.5221.4727.995169.025950121270.027559070.027559075.55.52755907TF2.52-32.4895443.5976824990574.9795197559940.25800514429679162111122WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2023188-9738.4821.99230.236171.5831689180500.065.235.29TF6.48-38.5295444.5966799331476.285307233370.4023617773794162111122WETL
2023-03-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023188-9741.12621.66831.397171.9340470906300.065.355.41TF9.126-31.87495444.7332476709776.4647871478310.50859123661707163111122.5WETL
2023-03-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023188-9738.22820.7529.489172.2903450674800.075.425.49TF6.228-36.77295444.8718003967276.6471160011410.39248950047404162111122WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023188-9735.61823.03629.327170.91180872969005.355.35TF3.618-32.38295444.3350356770575.9421046295360.29530140486597162111122WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:08FORECAST2023188-9735.92423.34229.633170.81931214863005.315.31TF3.924-31.07695444.2989526837375.8948414857930.30612029755653162111122WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:14FORECAST2023188-9735.88822.33429.111170.3151137059005.25.2TF3.888-41.11295444.1021153308775.6373022696110.30483842702772162111122WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:06FORECAST2023188-9733.00820.40826.708176.3040807401300.135.445.57TF1.008-43.99295446.4239802513978.706369458570.21094971223792161112123WETL
2023-03-29 20:00:06FORECAST2023188-9735.70822.74829.228175.7394318882500.135.395.52TF3.708-36.29295446.2065762553578.4160902159180.2984651581553162112124WETL
2023-03-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023188-9735.07820.13827.608178.7263548543400.45.485.88TF3.078-41.92295447.3530868823879.9537865513240.27665088640118162112124WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023188-9734.68222.31628.499183.2094119135600.745.766.5TT2.682-43.31895449.0576360635282.2715854184940.26335061815572162113126WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023188-9732.86421.70427.284181.9892022973100.645.696.33TF0.864-46.13695448.5956084800381.6395569413590.20674635200816161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:21FORECAST2023188-9730.66819.52625.097182.7611724930700.815.86.61TT-1.332-44.33295448.8880783407382.0393115157130.1489471123292161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023188-9730.34416.98823.666183.2829949214900.255.876.12TF-1.656-53.65695449.0854522268882.3097266598160.14143352574767161112123WETL
2023-03-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023188-9730.75817.29424.026184.446746909800.245.936.17TF-1.242-55.24295449.5246881254582.9133663803810.15108057351273161112123WETL
2023-03-28 16:00:06FORECAST2023188-9729.67820.28224.98185.266181806690.133858340.463858345.826.28385834TF-2.322-50.32295449.8331900888483.3388775776840.12680513241192161112123WETL
2023-03-28 12:00:07FORECAST2023188-9731.24422.78427.014184.333975514440.322834820.872834825.346.21283482TF-0.756-44.75695449.4821815109282.8548374408120.16295016709941161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 08:00:06FORECAST2023188-9729.96619.14824.557183.89519062290.322834820.882834825.236.11283482TF-2.034-42.03495449.3166756179482.6271757128090.13299671378446161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 04:00:18FORECAST2023188-9731.62218.21224.917184.280602610590.43307111.11307115.046.1530711TF-0.378-37.37895449.4620595625382.8271391867780.17258908936948161114126WETL
2023-03-28 00:00:08FORECAST2023188-9725.882324.44183.0555120209500.424.835.25TF-6.12-50.1295448.9994413574282.1918226348010.063233896857392161112123WETL
2023-03-27 20:00:08FORECAST2023188-9724.6222.31623.468185.3500889413700.45.185.58TF-7.38-56.3895449.8647433352283.382470188770.048801995426274161112123WETL
2023-03-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023188-9724.56621.70423.135188.616814653470.027559070.417559075.515.92755907TF-7.434-62.43495451.0879814892785.082778196970.048247662870132161112123WETL
2023-03-27 12:00:08FORECAST2023188-9724.04421.97423.009185.907649129620.07874020.31874025.245.5587402TF-7.956-62.95695450.0742429098183.6722444331580.043144230247959161112123WETL
2023-03-27 08:00:05FORECAST2023188-9724.54821.222.874184.439140460.07874020.29874025.215.5087402TF-7.452-53.45295449.5218214299882.909418362560.048064005113333161112123WETL
2023-03-27 04:00:15FORECAST2023188-9721.59619.18420.39178.3960106939300.064.594.65TF-10.404-51.40495447.2267138458379.7834616258520.024700836944038161111121.5WETL