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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 5, 2023

[ Tuesday, April 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 6, 2023 ]

DAY 187 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/06/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.195
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 172 in
SWE DAY: 94
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -98

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-06 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023187-9831.6413.6700622.65503172.3979491666700.114.774.88TF-0.36-38.3694444.33116528593 76.601781646130.1945270885624116 1112123WETL
2023-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2023187-9831.53214.73823.135177.030646186880.007874020.117874024.774.88787402TF-0.468-38.46894446.1276272507878.9782621340250.19139808268899161112123WETL
2023-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2023187-9830.57813.17221.875177.174759052670.043307110.153307114.774.92330711TF-1.422-39.42294446.1831728570479.0523961443030.16511227153405161112123WETL
2023-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2023187-9830.93814.66622.802177.097469068550.023622060.133622064.774.90362206TF-1.062-39.06294446.153385407779.012635372070.17474438447233161112123WETL
2023-04-05 04:00:12FORECAST2023187-9830.81215.04422.928177.120025823940.023622060.133622064.774.90362206TF-1.188-39.18894446.1620793532679.0242390167140.17133342372287161112123WETL
2023-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2023187-9832.32417.97825.151188.7184317670800.114.774.88TF0.324-36.67694450.5670671306285.0303103147830.21505598498942161112123WETL
2023-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2023187-9831.35214.01822.685180.044203241990.011811030.211811034.74.91181103TF-0.648-35.64894447.2849241233180.5310577859340.18625193875168161112123WETL
2023-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2023187-9831.42413.87422.64918000.24.74.9TF-0.576-35.57694447.2680126803580.5082422824630.18830004579075161112123WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2023187-9830.72215.45823.09180.2853316326400.24.74.9TF-1.278-36.27894447.3771425100880.6555365022910.16892320031781161112123WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:03FORECAST2023187-9832.50417.27624.89180.2833314501400.214.74.91TF0.504-33.49694447.3763777822480.6545037986770.22065996466312161112123WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:12FORECAST2023187-9828.65216.01622.334180.057573454980.031496080.221496084.74.92149608TF-3.348-36.34894447.2900389757980.5379590485620.11950595361007161112123WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023187-9830.52415.823.162180.7780928948200.174.74.87TF-1.476-34.47694447.565421115980.9100232749980.16369759875072161112123WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:04FORECAST2023187-9830.52415.823.162179.2114026716200.194.74.89TF-1.476-34.47694446.9659888225880.10140180340.16369759875072161112123WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2023187-9830.215.81823.009179.210947952900.184.74.88TF-1.8-34.894446.9658144958880.1011673183460.15537492058738161112123WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:02FORECAST2023187-9828.65216.01622.334180.020858038310.031496080.221496084.74.92149608TF-3.348-36.34894447.2759928638780.519008015290.11950595361007161112123WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023187-9829.35415.42222.388179.88935032580.019685050.189685054.74.88968505TF-2.646-35.64694447.2256715846380.4511355103790.1349780871477161112123WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:10FORECAST2023187-9829.69615.38622.541179.455150020940.035433090.145433094.74.84543309TF-2.304-35.30494447.0594059049680.2271127549460.14299172712788161112123WETL
2023-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2023187-9830.84816.7923.819176.063590002220.007874020.127874024.684.80787402TF-1.152-36.15294445.7543670889678.4811141288510.17230362321967161112123WETL
2023-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2023187-9831.49615.85423.675170.6303568867800.134.84.93TF-0.504-38.50494443.6401396029475.6984753497490.19036195798737161112123WETL
2023-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2023187-9830.12815.56622.847170.5747256854300.124.84.92TF-1.872-39.87294443.6183406430175.6700767642090.1535639377292161112123WETL
2023-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2023187-9830.61415.81823.216174.3067577909200.244.85.04TF-1.386-39.38694445.0739223798477.5793923873170.16605975912078161112123WETL
2023-04-02 08:00:02FORECAST2023187-9830.4715.87223.171174.4336685517300.244.865.1TF-1.53-37.5394445.1231784358977.6444689719770.16229079821539161112123WETL
2023-04-02 04:00:13FORECAST2023187-9830.07415.85422.964173.898688779900.184.875.05TF-1.926-38.92694444.9154367498977.370211068740.15221488571771161112123WETL
2023-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023187-9831.02816.03423.531169.6749553040700.244.825.06TF-0.972-38.97294443.2653395279375.2110266722430.1772069281721161112123WETL
2023-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2023187-9831.58615.09823.342161.0593995075800.24.794.99TF-0.414-38.41494439.844092201570.8410253669280.19295872061779161112123WETL
2023-04-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023187-9832.03615.18823.612160.6514174208100.24.744.94TF0.036000000000001-36.96494439.6802179999570.6352502335810.20626333380622161112123WETL
2023-04-01 12:00:06FORECAST2023187-9832.32417.97825.151164.7184317670800.114.774.88TF0.324-36.67694441.3062495044272.691273347380.21505598498942161112123WETL
2023-04-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023187-9831.04617.25824.152165.3862826943700.164.935.09TF-0.954-37.95494441.5716607816673.0298955198590.1777020482422161112123WETL
2023-04-01 04:00:09FORECAST2023187-9832.82816.89824.863165.5750139499300.234.764.99TF0.828-36.17294441.6465830932973.1256391566130.23095464389545161112123WETL
2023-04-01 00:00:04FORECAST2023187-9829.87615.00822.442173.9765441123400.215.465.67TF-2.124-36.12494444.9456868454177.4101129150560.14733567962557161112123WETL
2023-03-31 20:00:05FORECAST2023187-9831.116.2523.675166.0085135088600.225.65.82TF-0.9-34.994441.8185373072573.3456386190330.1791926264964161112123WETL
2023-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2023187-9830.75815.8923.324165.8949688348600.175.595.76TF-1.242-36.24294441.7735163797273.2880037318780.16988467021694161112123WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:06FORECAST2023187-9832.41416.3424.377169.2176968542100.065.575.63TF0.414-36.58694443.0856368584574.9779309783670.21784760133695161111121.5WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:05FORECAST2023187-9832.28816.3424.314168.6784523418200.075.515.58TF0.288-33.71294442.8734452729974.703207331940.21394516948631161111121.5WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:14FORECAST2023187-9833.1716.64624.908168.9354432194700.045.685.72TF1.17-30.8394442.9746068947474.8341115507310.2421056864944161111121.5WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2023187-9831.51417.56424.539171.7780009180500.155.365.51TF-0.486-41.48694444.0891547782676.2847472371940.19087958998131161112123WETL
2023-03-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023187-9832.91817.4225.169172.2482382906300.165.475.63TF0.918-37.08294444.2727572324276.5251997538060.23386106676557161112123WETL
2023-03-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023187-9830.54217.00623.774172.4480802674800.135.585.71TF-1.458-39.45894444.3507184208576.627428357150.16416828174968161112123WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023187-9833.20618.08625.646171.01473512969005.575.57TF1.206-31.79494443.7906732070475.8947444315280.24329620118708161111121.5WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:08FORECAST2023187-9832.97217.56425.268170.9430009486300.015.525.53TF0.972-31.02894443.7625911866475.8581090461860.23561458648609161111121.5WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:14FORECAST2023187-9830.3815.6223170.4316193059005.425.42TF-1.62-40.6294443.562250577775.5970326289290.15996362891472161111121.5WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:06FORECAST2023187-9829.9317.25823.594176.316872740130.090551230.240551235.555.79055123TF-2.07-41.0794445.8522167010578.6112685529820.14865588587255161112123WETL
2023-03-29 20:00:05FORECAST2023187-9831.6417.624.62175.841079088250.090551230.240551235.55.74055123TF-0.36-36.3694445.6683534626178.3668041883510.19452708856241161112123WETL
2023-03-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023187-9830.45215.1722.811178.795628454340.110236280.640236285.466.10023628TF-1.548-40.54894446.8065082716679.887050443920.16182361440024161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023187-9829.67817.8723.774183.277406313560.023622061.063622065.666.72362206TT-2.322-42.32294448.5167606524482.2029885805410.14256212797172161114126WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023187-9830.18217.3323.756182.001797497310.023622060.963622065.596.55362206TT-1.818-42.81894448.0319670738481.5426233436970.15492086253159161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:21FORECAST2023187-9829.1217.18623.153182.761172493070.051181131.121181135.716.83118113TT-2.88-38.8894448.3207558082981.9356269845030.1296753874254161114126WETL
2023-03-29 00:00:04FORECAST2023187-9827.12215.20621.164183.2829949214900.725.626.34TF-4.878-47.87894448.5188811420582.2058838145530.090210260209932161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2023187-9827.2315.33221.281184.446746909800.855.546.39TT-4.77-49.7794448.9597893123482.809172631970.092085357546075161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 16:00:06FORECAST2023187-9828.88617.8723.378183.9576896771800.835.546.37TT-3.114-44.11494448.774660022282.5555496433480.1245183196414161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 12:00:06FORECAST2023187-9833.45818.26625.862181.663235339690.031496080.711496085.46.11149608TF1.458-39.54294447.9030329462281.367514083470.25171755206665162113126WETL
2023-03-28 08:00:06FORECAST2023187-9832.2715.3523.81180.957130073460.019685050.709685055.36.00968505TF0.27-35.7394447.6337708898481.0025225041880.21339101427542161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 04:00:17FORECAST2023187-9832.32418.0525.187180.368548373460.397638010.847638015.095.93763801TF0.324-32.67694447.4089552427380.6985037864180.21505598498942161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 00:00:07FORECAST2023187-9830.61416.93423.774183.055512020950.031496080.561496084.915.47149608TF-1.386-40.38694448.4325428095182.0880487308490.16605975912078161113124.5WETL
2023-03-27 20:00:08FORECAST2023187-9829.24617.07823.162185.350088941370.031496080.591496085.215.80149608TF-2.754-44.75494449.3011391902283.2780061103670.13251253784362161113124.5WETL
2023-03-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023187-9828.54415.33221.938188.304160883070.007874020.857874025.266.11787402TF-3.456-51.45694450.4119547459584.8144451901390.11724106583451161113124.5WETL
2023-03-27 12:00:08FORECAST2023187-9826.29416.19621.245184.988205356930.019685050.569685055.135.69968505TF-5.706-50.70694449.1644866548983.0901322963550.076763952568376161113124.5WETL
2023-03-27 08:00:05FORECAST2023187-9826.90615.60221.254183.518537794540.019685050.529685055.125.64968505TF-5.094-42.09494448.6082259839382.3279256751730.086545124308726161113124.5WETL
2023-03-27 04:00:15FORECAST2023187-9833.29621.227.248178.3960106939300.164.714.87TF1.296-36.70494446.6530661180579.6811251596720.24628625841758161112123WETL
2023-03-27 00:00:06FORECAST2023187-9823.95419.54421.749183.0135384136700.074.614.68TF-8.046-47.04694448.4166067916282.0663098923850.046938556667002161111121.5WETL
2023-03-26 20:00:04FORECAST2023187-9821.72220.0320.876183.5039873166600.084.684.76TF-10.278-49.27894448.6027083246682.3203856986290.027921535611575161111121.5WETL
2023-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2023187-9822.24416.03419.139187.5698430882500.265.055.31TF-9.756-51.75694450.1366081778584.4320529641950.031668969745023161112123WETL
2023-03-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023187-9819.36417.45618.41182.8694699095100.174.564.73TF-12.636-41.63694448.3618957258281.9917021990010.015274102196659161112123WETL
2023-03-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023187-9819.36417.45618.41183.6073835387200.194.674.86TF-12.636-39.63694448.6419125872482.3739677159510.015274102196659161112123WETL
2023-03-26 04:00:10FORECAST2023187-9823.21622.78423183.5329618819100.34.424.72TF-8.784-44.78494448.6136955136282.3354002784040.039748695484192161112123WETL