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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 4, 2023

[ Monday, April 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 5, 2023 ]

DAY 186 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/05/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.063
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -30

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 177 in
SWE DAY: 93
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.55 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -99

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-05 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023186-9926.6300615.9000821.26507177.035407083330.0199999999999820.8799999999999844.88TF-5.36994-30.3699493445.55163735915 78.8784154965230.06305247428751416 1113124.5WETL
2023-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2023186-9927.93215.54821.74188.721482167080.023622060.8836220644.88362206TF-4.068-29.06893450.0072827728384.9260413908690.083860415626487161113124.5WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:01FORECAST2023186-9824.87212.57818.725180.285331632640.070866180.740866184.164.90086618TF-7.128-27.12894447.3771425100880.6555365022910.041593353614078161113124.5WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2023186-9826.02413.80219.913180.287267450140.07874020.74874024.164.9087402TF-5.976-25.97694447.377882625680.6565359761970.05484969774176161113124.5WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:12FORECAST2023186-9926.6915.04420.867179.909604832830.062992160.732992164.164.89299216TF-5.31-25.3193446.6598008598980.3583882674140.0639129223472161113124.5WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:02FORECAST2023186-9927.30212.14619.724180.778092894820.055118140.705118144.164.86511814TF-4.698-24.69893446.9930629243280.806553452670.073226786425438161113124.5WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2023186-9927.30212.14619.724179.211402671620.055118140.725118144.164.88511814TF-4.698-24.69893446.3913484548979.9984196970750.073226786425438161113124.5WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:01FORECAST2023186-9926.99612.34419.67179.21094795290.051181130.721181134.164.88118113TF-5.004-25.00493446.3911734644979.9981853543770.068448122190474161113124.5WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:02FORECAST2023186-9926.6915.04420.867179.872889416170.062992160.732992164.164.89299216TF-5.31-25.3193446.6456959710180.33945187960.0639129223472161113124.5WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023186-9926.99614.50420.75179.80103769630.03937010.70937014.164.8693701TF-5.004-25.00493446.6180890319380.3023958618810.068448122190474161113124.5WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:10FORECAST2023186-9926.72613.119.913179.290545325250.03937010.64937014.164.8093701TF-5.274-25.27493446.4218020175780.039208328810.064434065479607161113124.5WETL
2023-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2023186-9926.92415.38621.155176.01603891460.007874020.637874024.164.79787402TF-5.076-27.07693445.1566666101978.3547131531520.067359369532998161113124.5WETL
2023-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2023186-9926.29413.9120.102170.630356886780.015748040.765748044.164.92574804TF-5.706-29.70693443.0528369651475.5982636910610.058393771175706161113124.5WETL
2023-04-02 16:00:02FORECAST2023186-9926.25813.87420.066170.574725685430.007874020.757874024.164.91787402TF-5.742-29.74293443.0309550115775.5698836212550.057911125014536161113124.5WETL
2023-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2023186-9926.31213.80220.057174.306757790920.102362260.882362264.165.04236226TF-5.688-29.68893444.4920784816377.4779730638790.058636272046892161113124.5WETL
2023-04-02 08:00:02FORECAST2023186-9927.30214.91821.11174.433668551730.059055150.939055154.165.09905515TF-4.698-27.69893444.5415220667777.5430085176750.073226786425438161113124.5WETL
2023-04-02 04:00:12FORECAST2023186-9926.58214.32420.453173.89868877990.051181130.891181134.165.05118113TF-5.418-29.41893444.3329894605677.2689242488440.062369082896245161113124.5WETL
2023-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023186-9927.30213.92820.615169.674955304070.047244121.017244124.045.05724412TF-4.698-29.69893442.6766099403675.1111340057850.073226786425438161114126WETL
2023-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2023186-9927.33813.71220.525161.059399507580.043307110.9933071144.99330711TF-4.662-29.66293439.2423371413670.7441070582920.073805306049062161114126WETL
2023-04-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023186-9927.28413.69420.489160.651614220810.03937010.939370144.9393701TF-4.716-28.71693439.077918423970.5385763635120.072938826275814161113124.5WETL
2023-04-01 12:00:05FORECAST2023186-9927.93215.54821.74164.721482167080.023622060.8836220644.88362206TF-4.068-29.06893440.7112791176372.5946151040070.083860415626487161113124.5WETL
2023-04-01 08:00:04FORECAST2023186-9926.615.60221.101165.386282694370.047244120.957244124.135.08724412TF-5.4-29.493440.9764829709972.931461274210.062624357355514161113124.5WETL
2023-04-01 04:00:08FORECAST2023186-9927.91414.82821.371165.584460349930.043307111.003307113.994.99330711TF-4.086-29.08693441.0554538796373.0319293150540.083541364385177161114126WETL
2023-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2023186-9927.64413.87420.759173.976544112340.015748040.935748044.735.66574804TF-4.356-26.35693444.3633547251377.3088007852450.07886409282899161113124.5WETL
2023-03-31 20:00:04FORECAST2023186-9928.11215.2621.686166.008513508860.051181130.981181134.845.82118113TF-3.888-25.88893441.2242994120873.2469900693860.087101241299682161113124.5WETL
2023-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2023186-9927.6814.07220.876165.894968834860.007874020.947874024.815.75787402TF-4.32-27.3293441.1791070795673.1893942195540.07947605121813161113124.5WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:05FORECAST2023186-9927.42813.47820.453169.2218296542100.84.835.63TF-4.572-28.57293442.4978544150174.8802965421680.075266830722194161113124.5WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:05FORECAST2023186-9928.16613.42420.795168.6805187418200.794.795.58TF-3.834-25.83493442.2840404309774.6047013711260.088091436252536161113124.5WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:13FORECAST2023186-9928.79614.0921.443168.9519744194700.864.865.72TF-3.204-24.20493442.3913002518674.7428836435460.10026788299196161113124.5WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2023186-9926.88814.48620.687171.778000918050.055118140.835118144.675.50511814TF-5.112-33.11293443.5035616441376.1841552192610.066820019992789161113124.5WETL
2023-03-30 20:00:06FORECAST2023186-9928.414.0921.245172.258176690630.055118140.845118144.785.62511814TF-3.6-29.693443.691755925476.4295328883740.092479050768035161113124.5WETL
2023-03-30 16:00:05FORECAST2023186-9927.84215.22421.533172.448080267480.066929170.796929174.915.70692917TF-4.158-30.15893443.7661211194576.5266156747930.082274246456558161113124.5WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023186-9928.77816.35822.568171.0373671296900.5755.57TF-3.222-25.22293443.2128361756875.8059565775710.099903801469908161113124.5WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:07FORECAST2023186-9929.78615.4422.613170.9553009486300.584.955.53TF-2.214-24.21493443.1805885694475.7640708934810.12180241613956161113124.5WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:14FORECAST2023186-9927.87813.89220.885170.431619305900.484.945.42TF-4.122-31.12293442.9746513985375.496887149320.082905990474621161112123WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:06FORECAST2023186-9927.53613.67620.606175.718679261890.03937010.90937014.795.6993701TF-4.464-31.46493445.0412569819978.2020618939250.077049562470208161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 20:00:05FORECAST2023186-9927.78814.86421.326175.287618450530.03937010.89937014.755.6493701TF-4.212-28.21293444.8738011344677.9808691118920.081333414796565161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023186-9926.02413.53219.778178.094416595610.287401731.297401734.695.98740173TF-5.976-30.97693445.9608861441379.4231438422980.05484969774176161114126WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023186-9927.28416.41221.848183.123752280690.724409841.904409844.86.70440984TT-4.716-31.71693447.889489563282.0192039358960.072938826275814161115127.5WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023186-9926.70815.8921.299181.850193765080.622047581.802047584.736.53204758TT-5.292-33.29293447.4034440536281.3604029923160.06417308409301161115127.5WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:21FORECAST2023186-9925.9717.47421.722182.385079791480.763779941.913779944.876.78377994TT-6.03-28.0393447.6077714237281.6369791064020.054161648115802161115127.5WETL
2023-03-29 00:00:04FORECAST2023186-9925.48414.1819.832183.282994921490.251968641.441968644.96.34196864TT-6.516-34.51693447.9501529912882.1016456157820.048271376422307161114126WETL
2023-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2023186-9925.39413.22619.31184.44674690980.23622061.60622064.786.3862206TT-6.606-36.60693448.392739882.7045821940820.047238830633781161115127.5WETL
2023-03-28 16:00:06FORECAST2023186-9927.0515.4421.245183.957689677180.326771831.556771834.816.36677183TT-4.95-32.9593448.2069056802382.4511068662950.069273528046406161115127.5WETL
2023-03-28 12:00:06FORECAST2023186-9926.34816.721.524181.455320460970.523622331.303622334.786.08362233TT-5.652-32.65293447.2524235675181.1563318453890.059123636864456161114126WETL
2023-03-28 08:00:06FORECAST2023186-9924.60215.04419.823180.795596678240.543307381.293307384.75.99330738TF-7.398-28.39893446.9997720387380.8155905007770.038894597517213161114126WETL
2023-03-28 04:00:17FORECAST2023186-9927.1417.22222.181177.584383893990.283464720.973464724.575.54346472TF-4.86-24.8693445.7639240426779.1607118132830.070666157328391161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 00:00:07FORECAST2023186-9926.40217.54621.974182.789100222170.389763991.149763994.295.43976399TF-5.598-30.59893447.7619239861381.8459991991750.059860614203274161114126WETL
2023-03-27 20:00:07FORECAST2023186-9925.7917.18621.488185.083931181310.374015951.304015954.475.77401595TF-6.21-34.2193448.6345138315583.0350394835580.051917214008707161114126WETL
2023-03-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023186-9924.40415.60220.003188.221783470830.377952961.637952964.476.10795296TT-7.596-39.59693449.8194530311584.6658196893950.037007288047732161115127.5WETL
2023-03-27 12:00:08FORECAST2023186-9925.41215.3520.381184.792860720190.216535551.346535554.335.67653555TF-6.588-36.58893448.5241182221282.8840549082650.047443915805949161114126WETL
2023-03-27 08:00:05FORECAST2023186-9926.13215.7120.921183.337856942480.200787511.220787514.415.63078751TF-5.868-28.86893447.9710469766682.1300517249780.056246439099237161114126WETL
2023-03-27 04:00:15FORECAST2023186-9929.71418.51824.116178.422086693930.055118140.665118144.24.86511814TF-2.286-30.28693446.0872897322379.5918250816630.1201347934609161113124.5WETL
2023-03-27 00:00:05FORECAST2023186-9930.5620.40825.484183.013538413670.007874020.487874024.194.67787402TF-1.44-31.4493447.8474892589681.9621536789580.14075643195135161112123WETL
2023-03-26 20:00:04FORECAST2023186-9928.95817.92423.441183.5039873166600.54.264.76TF-3.042-31.04293448.0342993231882.216080380430.10358812723124161113124.5WETL
2023-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2023186-9929.76815.78222.775187.569843088250.145669370.885669374.425.30566937TF-2.232-34.23293449.574039084684.3265319676490.12138399831514161113124.5WETL
2023-03-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023186-9929.46217.47423.468182.869469909510.114173290.834173293.94.73417329TF-2.538-20.53893447.7925698955981.8875898862210.11442465335691161113124.5WETL
2023-03-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023186-9929.01216.59222.802183.607383538720.110236280.920236283.944.86023628TF-2.988-18.98893448.0736528453782.2696310315760.10471235400792161113124.5WETL
2023-03-26 04:00:10FORECAST2023186-9931.9118.91425.412183.532961881910.169291430.959291433.764.71929143TF-0.09-28.0993448.0453283428882.2310861681220.17837344880158161113124.5WETL
2023-03-26 00:00:06FORECAST2023186-9920.1213.2816.7186.5179116833900.954.345.29TF-11.88-44.8893449.1771961666983.7795926048090.011249943280342161113124.5WETL
2023-03-25 20:00:08FORECAST2023186-9918.96812.86615.917184.5751775838300.944.175.11TF-13.032-35.03293448.4415031941582.7711700880210.0078640055682941161113124.5WETL
2023-03-25 16:00:06FORECAST2023186-9924.06218.26621.164184.408640986760.059055150.899055154.165.05905515TF-7.938-33.93893448.3782684348282.6848271300640.033923587543763161113124.5WETL
2023-03-25 12:00:04FORECAST2023186-9924.72823.70224.215175.051229438940.047244120.197244123.663.85724412TF-7.272-35.27293444.7818923166877.8596170822150.040135782027838161112123DRYL
2023-03-25 08:00:06FORECAST2023186-9922.26220.80421.533174.169548547690.047244120.157244123.663.81724412TF-9.738-24.73893444.4386047426377.4076711451880.02097409285883161112123DRYL
2023-03-25 04:00:15FORECAST2023186-9923.41422.71223.063182.4617805692500.244.694.93TF-8.586-31.58693447.6370485000581.6766529180840.028658862407322161112123WETL