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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 6, 2023

[ Sunday, February 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 7, 2023 ]

DAY 129 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/07/2023 07:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.234
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -5

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.85 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.28 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 378.55 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -155

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-07 07:00:09OBSERVATION2023129-15528.0000422.5800625.29005117.317678750.389999999999991.854.286.13TT-3.99996-4.9999637378.55347439402 44.4110148986540.2338607020930816 1115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:10OBSERVATION2023129-15528.0000422.5800625.29005117.317678750.389999999999991.854.286.13TT-3.99996-4.9999637378.55347439402 44.4110148986540.2338607020930816 1115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:01FORECAST2023129-15527.39221.23624.314114.073839316920.287401731.747401734.286.02740173TT-4.608-5.60837376.7387352534642.9760339497610.21732751863394161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:09FORECAST2023129-15527.39221.224.296114.550257063180.307086781.767086784.286.04708678TT-4.608-5.60837377.0062008749343.1861572246340.21732751863394161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:10FORECAST2023129-15527.28421.36224.323114.49334716170.295275751.755275754.286.03527575TT-4.716-5.71637376.9742681143943.161045750250.21388189921747161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:01FORECAST2023129-15527.520.71424.107108.485973839390.362204921.632204924.285.91220492TF-4.5-7.537373.577372162240.5279050233770.22080491638514161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:01FORECAST2023129-15527.4120.78624.098108.522431830080.374015951.644015954.285.92401595TT-4.59-7.5937373.5981442151940.5437791374370.2179048831409161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2023129-15527.44620.64224.044108.494448862930.362204921.632204924.285.91220492TF-4.554-7.55437373.5822010046940.5315950030040.21906225694532161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:06FORECAST2023129-15527.8621.27224.566110.714741425030.271653691.541653694.285.82165369TF-4.14-7.1437374.843690446541.5007222625890.23262321401086161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:16FORECAST2023129-15527.89621.41624.656110.767761466310.311023791.571023794.285.85102379TF-4.104-6.10437374.8737276189341.5239236408820.23382404698678161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:15FORECAST2023129-15527.82421.5624.692110.710602067710.334645851.554645854.285.83464585TF-4.176-6.17637374.8413452273641.4989110099910.23142581137486161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:07FORECAST2023129-15527.91421.12824.521107.961657258180.326771831.436771834.285.71677183TF-4.086-7.08637373.2784283188240.2997577400280.23442574715326161114126WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:05FORECAST2023129-15527.91421.1124.512108.033046513080.299212761.449212764.285.72921276TF-4.086-8.08637373.3191549655140.3308056326110.23442574715326161114126WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:05FORECAST2023129-15527.8621.36224.611107.333621405480.251968641.281968644.285.56196864TF-4.14-8.1437372.9198235529440.026835155830.23262321401086161114126WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2023129-15527.78822.83825.313108.653547151020.224409571.224409574.285.50440957TF-4.212-7.21237373.6728316787240.600878635860.23023184760184161114126WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:13FORECAST2023129-15527.93222.71225.322108.680445182810.145669371.225669374.285.50566937TF-4.068-6.06837373.6881505799540.6125945645690.23502830164971161114126WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:17FORECAST2023129-15527.75221.93824.845109.005411524380.177165451.317165454.285.59716545TF-4.248-7.24837373.8731419354640.7541956945890.22904133108493161114126WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:05FORECAST2023129-15526.25822.0124.134109.162503834940.149606381.279606384.615.88960638TF-5.742-17.74237373.9625140616540.8226843753780.18276385581025161114126WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:06FORECAST2023129-15526.6921.75824.224108.849181547480.110236281.190236284.615.80023628TF-5.31-17.3137373.7842250288540.6861069697470.19550659830434161114126WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:05FORECAST2023129-15526.99621.99224.494109.392881396620.141732361.341732364.615.95173236TF-5.004-17.00437374.0935147666240.9231674921080.20485028562002161114126WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:07FORECAST2023129-15527.42822.33424.881111.8602787290.098425251.308425254.615.91842525TF-4.572-17.57237375.4917662292842.0026136308520.21848312953629161114126WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:17FORECAST2023129-15527.78822.1924.989111.55024496260.181102461.341102464.545.88110246TF-4.212-16.21237375.3165539312641.8666535295510.23023184760184161114126WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:17FORECAST2023129-15527.06821.54224.305111.702174972130.204724521.244724524.665.90472452TF-4.932-18.93237375.4024328066741.9332682343350.20708670931433161114126WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:05FORECAST2023129-15527.17621.7424.458113.058909452010.19685051.35685054.425.7768505TF-4.824-24.82437376.1678632796642.5291283932910.21046823923126161114126WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:08FORECAST2023129-15527.48222.35224.917112.862111684610.204724521.354724524.45.75472452TF-4.518-23.51837376.056999144142.4425870371810.22022315126476161114126WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:07FORECAST2023129-15527.87823.10825.493112.470173638060.216535551.266535554.45.66653555TF-4.122-23.12237375.8360394476742.2703446161210.23322320224409161114126WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:06FORECAST2023129-15527.89624.51226.204112.608564153040.267716681.217716684.525.73771668TF-4.104-23.10437375.9140838565842.3311452279960.23382404698678161114126WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:16FORECAST2023129-15528.68824.65626.672112.628969122620.259842661.159842664.55.65984266TF-3.312-18.31237375.9255887827342.3401115314110.26109135706412162114128WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:14FORECAST2023129-15529.10223.52226.312112.430047418510.295275751.215275754.415.62527575TF-2.898-20.89837375.8134054026742.2527189899340.27596789662593162114128WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:05FORECAST2023129-15528.63424.1726.402114.693401643460.338582861.208582864.455.65858286TF-3.366-20.36637377.0865004415143.2493334494640.2591817374946162114128WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023129-15528.54424.1726.357114.173942140890.338582861.128582864.45.52858286TF-3.456-21.45637376.7949608277443.0201660565250.25601513581006162114128WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023129-15528.54424.85426.699114.75263660510.425197081.245197084.415.65519708TF-3.456-21.45637377.1197208354443.2754822816470.25601513581006162114128WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:08FORECAST2023129-15528.79623.2726.033120.050957388981.157480942.227480944.446.66748094TT-3.204-22.20437380.071019837445.6278898072870.264932147219261621151210WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:16FORECAST2023129-15527.89623.37825.637120.399631049481.165354962.275354964.476.74535496TT-4.104-25.10437380.2638505551645.7836273082940.23382404698678161115127.5WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:14FORECAST2023129-15528.05823.14425.601122.087982458741.1811032.5611034.467.021103TT-3.942-25.94237381.1951657969246.539348715170.23927001078172161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:05FORECAST2023129-15528.52624.40426.465119.020587048960.618110571.488110574.576.05811057TT-3.474-24.47437379.5001841028245.1683346971060.25538424275359162114128WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2023129-15528.25624.18826.222119.310754733970.618110571.508110574.586.08811057TT-3.744-26.74437379.6610911244345.2976513251790.24601907753718161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:06FORECAST2023129-15527.4123.14425.277121.307691159040.566929441.806929444.716.51692944TT-4.59-27.5937380.7652439403246.1897526160090.2179048831409161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:06FORECAST2023129-15526.4220.44423.432124.279075018670.614173562.264173564.656.91417356TT-5.58-31.5837382.397859660247.5240522876880.18748050813262161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:17FORECAST2023129-15526.00620.24623.126124.761400455830.614173562.264173564.716.97417356TT-5.994-30.99437382.661711100847.7414109777590.17557524316868161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:14FORECAST2023129-15525.53820.31822.928123.60346254290.740157882.080157884.626.70015788TT-6.462-29.46237382.0277284943847.2199500293030.16270663366228161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:06FORECAST2023129-15527.42821.2924.359125.034166809710.610236551.670236554.636.30023655TT-4.572-31.57237382.8107822533547.8644272048220.21848312953629161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2023129-15527.42821.23624.332125.002895537960.594488511.654488514.636.28448851TT-4.572-31.57237382.7936972468547.8503205495360.21848312953629161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:06FORECAST2023129-15528.68822.6425.664120.856496912380.338582861.038582864.635.66858286TF-3.312-31.31237380.5162576144345.987861913490.26109135706412162114128WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:08FORECAST2023129-15528.3124.58426.447124.382044655190.740157881.810157884.446.25015788TT-3.69-33.6937382.454215339947.5704372909740.24787727300326161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:15FORECAST2023129-15528.3125.14226.726123.722974784820.740157881.800157884.436.23015788TT-3.69-31.6937382.0932489721447.2737134080290.24787727300326161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:19FORECAST2023129-15528.32823.6325.979123.50829507750.653543661.693543664.496.18354366TT-3.672-28.67237381.9755403840447.1771477541410.24849832961668161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:04FORECAST2023129-15528.3125.35826.834125.449787857870.523622331.523622334.966.48362233TT-3.69-30.6937383.0377272814648.0520016290220.24787727300326161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:04FORECAST2023129-15528.425.4326.915125.410344386320.523622331.523622334.966.48362233TT-3.6-30.637383.0161999216948.0341935377210.250990812506151621151210WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:10FORECAST2023129-15528.45424.76426.609123.917199503730.338582861.398582864.916.30858286TT-3.546-27.54637382.1996868295647.3611148431210.25286880741309162114128WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:08FORECAST2023129-15530.742326.87118.9290115091600.84.685.48TF-1.26-26.2637379.4493779884245.127539441930.33857871194735162113126WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:16FORECAST2023129-15530.72223.05426.888118.7074377131900.84.685.48TF-1.278-25.27837379.3263999345845.0288649932040.33786139038651162113126WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:21FORECAST2023129-15531.20822.78426.996118.7859797476600.874.635.5TF-0.792-25.79237379.3700003120545.0638371739380.35742787774007162113126WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:09FORECAST2023129-15530.16422.126.132109.0397536270800.463.984.44TF-1.836-29.83637373.8926827087340.7691660055270.31592708990511162112124WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:07FORECAST2023129-15530.12822.1926.159109.0436595629800.463.984.44TF-1.872-30.87237373.894905091640.7708687431420.31453292185199162112124WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:10FORECAST2023129-15530.21820.89425.556113.3001584380500.454.95.35TF-1.782-35.78237376.3036929980742.6352680375040.31802325125971162112124WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:12FORECAST2023129-15528.23820.96624.602112.957999386980.228346580.888346583.774.65834658TF-3.762-40.76237376.1110234846142.484748760210.24540134138616161113124.5WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:19FORECAST2023129-15528.29220.96624.629112.925044309420.228346580.888346583.744.62834658TF-3.708-40.70837376.0924576623642.4702574459590.24725704460558161113124.5WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:15FORECAST2023129-15528.65223.3626.006118.485472652510.492126251.592126253.855.44212625TF-3.348-43.34837379.2031353059844.9300627180420.259817475308231621151210WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:09FORECAST2023129-15526.45626.45626.456110.7776473485500.513.684.19TF-5.544-50.54437374.8793277697441.5282499699380.18853875799013161113124.5WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:06FORECAST2023129-15526.40226.40226.402110.9542376776800.513.724.23TF-5.598-50.59837374.9793389051241.6055466930970.18695275947459161113124.5WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:08FORECAST2023129-15526.36626.36626.366108.0801555934300.633.153.78TF-5.634-51.63437373.3460260423940.3512965848480.18590001684534161113124.5DRYL
2023-01-27 11:00:08FORECAST2023129-15526.8726.8726.87112.510499451220.047244120.737244123.284.01724412TF-5.13-54.1337375.8587837536742.2880594832530.20097121123583161113124.5WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:20FORECAST2023129-15526.8726.8726.87112.269415905380.047244120.767244123.334.09724412TF-5.13-50.1337375.7227746865142.1821764564040.20097121123583161113124.5WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:21FORECAST2023129-15525.64625.64625.646111.2939869572500.413.734.14TF-6.354-51.35437375.1716282442641.7543463005470.16562060137603161112123WETL