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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 2, 2023

[ Wednesday, February 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, February 3, 2023 ]

DAY 125 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/03/2023 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.863
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -25

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 33
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 367.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -159

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-03 07:00:13OBSERVATION2023125-15942.2900631.2600236.77504103.7415904166700.035.055.08TF10.29006-24.7099433367.38036288744 38.1126231337960.8634036625157116 5111123.5WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:13OBSERVATION2023125-15942.2900631.2600236.77504103.7415904166700.035.055.08TF10.29006-24.7099433367.38036288744 38.1126231337960.8634036625157116 5111123.5WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2023125-15936.3225.55630.938104.904945600.035.055.08TF4.32-30.6833368.0605250647238.6113693594220.65496408084101163111122.5WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:13FORECAST2023125-15936.55424.24230.398105.324226400.035.055.08TF4.554-30.44633368.3051676611538.7914568630330.66497061530906163111122.5WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:12FORECAST2023125-15936.44624.74630.596105.316551200.035.055.08TF4.446-30.55433368.3006916644338.7881586506720.66036622019997163111122.5WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:01FORECAST2023125-15937.79624.74631.271106.861551200.035.055.08TF5.796-32.20433369.1999426108339.4532785703450.71600823806875164111123WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:01FORECAST2023125-15937.63424.60231.118106.854466400.035.055.08TF5.634-32.36633369.1958270266239.4502230940360.70956550524369164111123WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2023125-15937.65224.831.226106.859878400.035.055.08TF5.652-32.34833369.1989708823539.4525571338930.71028472891223164111123WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:05FORECAST2023125-15937.32824.58430.956106.861846400.035.055.08TF5.328-32.67233369.200114091939.4534058829510.69721295449099163111122.5WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:14FORECAST2023125-15937.00426.97831.991106.6748510833300.035.055.08TF5.004-32.99633369.0914631398139.3727768665680.68388368355788163111122.5WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:12FORECAST2023125-15936.98626.97831.982106.6828214833300.035.055.08TF4.986-34.01433369.0960952796539.3762128429140.68313590115844163111122.5WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:04FORECAST2023125-15936.84226.45631.649107.87847600.025.055.07TF4.842-32.15833369.789910073839.8923719389380.67712691857619163111122.5WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2023125-15936.57226.0631.316107.893826400.025.055.07TF4.572-33.42833369.7988039164739.8990079526910.66573563456636163111122.5WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:05FORECAST2023125-15936.06825.82630.947107.904453600.025.055.07TF4.068-33.93233369.8049609890239.903602254090.64406554190636163111122.5WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:04FORECAST2023125-15936.10425.730.902107.996674220200.025.055.07TF4.104-33.89633369.8583837994439.9434753827980.645629949886163111122.5WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:15FORECAST2023125-15936.4126.74431.577108.3268033942300.035.055.08TF4.41-32.5933370.0495229540740.0862819191730.65882604888306163111122.5WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:13FORECAST2023125-15936.17625.66430.92108.20657051667005.055.05TF4.176-32.82433369.9799287268640.0342592475340.64875138595335163111122.5WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:05FORECAST2023125-15936.28425.8831.082110.944168846300.015.055.06TF4.284-33.71633371.5592735366741.2223347796610.65341473752067163111122.5WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2023125-15936.19425.64630.92110.9943505438500.025.055.07TF4.194-33.80633371.5881214293141.2441822078570.64953019028503163111122.5WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:05FORECAST2023125-15935.74426.16830.956111.032220804110.027559070.027559075.055.07755907TF3.744-35.25633371.6098894262941.260671295770.62987948870316163111122.5WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:07FORECAST2023125-15933.94426.02429.984110.9653632005.055.05TF1.944-38.05633371.5714579580541.2315617870680.54833818820461163111122.5WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:14FORECAST2023125-15933.83625.98829.912110.76048246667005.055.05TF1.836-37.16433371.4536465978941.1423851111850.5433431155283163111122.5WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:17FORECAST2023125-15937.14825.6131.379110.66060646667005.055.05TF5.148-33.85233371.3961932584541.0989279853910.68983870083453163111122.5WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2023125-15935.25824.06229.66109.9288568005.025.02TF3.258-37.74233370.9748118045640.7808369632710.60827079304719163111122.5WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2023125-15935.27624.3529.813109.9283648005.025.02TF3.276-37.72433370.9745282205240.7806232697330.609077563942163111122.5WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:09FORECAST2023125-15935.61824.02629.822109.9162616005.025.02TF3.618-38.38233370.9675519413840.7753664843010.62431338348021163111122.5WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:07FORECAST2023125-15936.51825.80831.163110.185176386780.066929170.066929175.025.08692917TF4.518-36.48233371.1225037627840.8921985382050.66343852575944163111122.5WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:15FORECAST2023125-15936.51825.77231.145109.964720226290.066929170.066929175.025.08692917TF4.518-35.48233370.9954821825840.7964144034260.66343852575944163111122.5WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:20FORECAST2023125-15936.64426.1531.397109.749685185060.023622060.023622065.025.04362206TF4.644-36.35633370.871515578340.7030320788250.66878881062643163111122.5WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:08FORECAST2023125-15933.1725.55629.363103.814594109680.129921330.169921334.64.76992133TF1.17-42.8333367.4231040380438.1438804122290.51241864851728163112125WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:06FORECAST2023125-15933.00825.46629.237103.875316682390.133858340.183858344.64.78385834TF1.008-43.99233367.4586489780138.1698835302750.50487802679568163112125WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:09FORECAST2023125-15932.01825.28628.652107.942418886860.566929441.016929444.65.61692944TF0.018000000000001-48.98233369.8269555502339.9200161516540.45885825010385162114128WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:11FORECAST2023125-15933.09825.35829.228104.223445698460.043307110.043307114.64.64330711TF1.098-45.90233367.6623261490238.3190344847630.50906764883704163111122.5WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:18FORECAST2023125-15933.13425.30429.219104.199401477220.043307110.043307114.574.61330711TF1.134-46.86633367.6482645702938.3087291223610.51074324347174163111122.5WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:14FORECAST2023125-15932.59424.6228.607104.00301622854004.584.58TF0.594-50.40633367.5333820873438.2245803017580.48560597846859162111122WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:07FORECAST2023125-15933.51225.03429.273103.1144024048300.363.994.35TF1.512-54.48833367.0128391736237.8443095862880.52831989712628163112125WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:06FORECAST2023125-15933.56625.19629.381103.2824179982600.364.034.39TF1.566-54.43433367.1113514656837.9161480539840.53082715069218163112125WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:07FORECAST2023125-15933.45825.44829.453100.7867520777500.063.93.96TF1.458-53.54233365.6437375168836.8520447218970.52581152072313163111122.5DRYL
2023-01-27 11:00:08FORECAST2023125-15931.29825.77228.535104.730216705570.263779670.263779673.984.24377967TF-0.702-54.70233367.9584970485238.5363731345450.42569765174358162112124WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:19FORECAST2023125-15932.4526.13229.291104.395689352650.248031630.248031634.064.30803163TF0.45-51.5533367.763032842738.3928753320340.47890823920156162112124WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:21FORECAST2023125-15932.84627.28430.065104.61907933840.248031630.248031634.134.37803163TF0.846-52.15433367.8935779491538.4886874195490.49733566168452162112124WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:08FORECAST2023125-15930.07423.23426.654111.498912291290.677165721.207165723.855.05716572TF-1.926-62.92633371.8779739789941.4639896037450.37062955617768162114128WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:07FORECAST2023125-15930.32623.25226.789111.809150680370.677165721.207165723.945.14716572TF-1.674-63.67433372.0560104244341.5992665310830.38179250273779162114128WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:06FORECAST2023125-15931.96424.29628.13105.824896729420.251968640.251968643.954.20196864TF-0.036000000000001-60.03633368.5969584399439.0067350616830.45635829264901162112124WETL
2023-01-26 07:00:21FORECAST2023125-15931.98224.29628.139106.188866671570.251968640.251968643.934.18196864TF-0.018000000000001-59.01833368.8088473944339.1633935232610.45719142483672162112124WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:15FORECAST2023125-15929.24624.15226.699109.005824436380.618110570.728110573.834.55811057TF-2.754-67.75433370.4421610443340.3803531706320.3347551053828162113126WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:09FORECAST2023125-15930.63222.2826.456108.335250503910.448819140.518819143.674.18881914TF-1.368-73.36833370.0544115836840.0899373789940.39547994193564162113126WETL
2023-01-25 19:00:09FORECAST2023125-15930.6522.24426.447108.244623581490.448819140.518819143.654.16881914TF-1.35-74.3533370.0019572276740.0507225845230.39628929722235162113126WETL
2023-01-25 15:00:06FORECAST2023125-15929.85821.59625.727107.912159848360.377952960.377952963.774.14795296TF-2.142-80.14233369.8094256481639.9069338539740.36114681455982162112124WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:11FORECAST2023125-15930.9221.27226.096105.761254712740.059055150.059055153.833.88905515TF-1.08-80.0833368.5598884415138.9793562383630.40848140593129162111122DRYL
2023-01-25 07:00:17FORECAST2023125-15930.57821.12825.853105.916012259230.062992160.062992163.833.89299216TF-1.422-78.42233368.6500206925339.0459401110370.39305459186105162111122DRYL
2023-01-25 03:00:20FORECAST2023125-15928.70618.87823.792113.869552623440.43307111.05307113.834.8830711TF-3.294-81.29433373.234859689842.5000864963510.31212223559612162114128WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:09FORECAST2023125-15929.33617.18623.261105.37568244511003.483.48FF-2.664-79.66433368.3351733670738.8135702620940.33858919991346162111122DRYL
2023-01-24 19:00:11FORECAST2023125-15929.13817.88823.513105.07483181336003.423.42FF-2.862-79.86233368.1596819270638.6843166589470.33017684596432162111122DRYL
2023-01-24 15:00:09FORECAST2023125-15934.19619.0426.618107.059572075770.161417410.161417413.483.64141741FF2.196-73.80433369.3149436467639.5386998280080.55996229723083163112125DRYL
2023-01-24 11:00:09FORECAST2023125-15927.7716.21421.992104.75366291536003.433.43FF-4.23-90.2333367.9721904328338.5464347988270.27455687633423162111122DRYL
2023-01-24 07:00:29FORECAST2023125-15927.66216.14221.902104.65716728412003.423.42FF-4.338-91.33833367.9158284720238.5050284068730.2703700032998162111122DRYL
2023-01-24 03:00:19FORECAST2023125-15925.44811.01218.23110.750118476570.031496080.491496083.694.18149608TF-6.552-85.55233371.4476854245141.1378751686130.19210959259856161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:10FORECAST2023125-15919.63419.63419.634115.795596598320.019685050.709685053.544.24968505TF-12.366-83.36633374.3312715437743.345912913820.060605267284605161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:09FORECAST2023125-15921.18221.18221.182116.816730994290.035433090.785433093.584.36543309TF-10.818-83.81833374.9103862445843.7958057368980.085563248552026161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:09FORECAST2023125-15924.20624.20624.206119.870901336280.070866180.710866183.954.66086618TF-7.794-89.79433376.6335563697545.1474038755290.15500863585805161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:11FORECAST2023125-15922.92822.92822.928123.126749946170.031496080.841496083.874.71149608TF-9.072-89.07233378.4558524305846.5980391078840.12211342403651161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:29FORECAST2023125-15922.92822.92822.928122.911369937320.031496080.841496083.874.71149608TF-9.072-88.07233378.3357693255246.5017677040910.12211342403651161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:16FORECAST2023125-15927.26627.26627.266121.10655628680.074803191.064803193.694.75480319TF-4.734-81.73433377.3269265076445.6967646636210.2552959867804162114128WETL