MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 9, 2022

[ Thursday, December 8, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 10, 2022 ]

DAY 70 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/10/2022 07:00:25 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.283
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -23

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.88 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 73 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-12-10 07:00:25OBSERVATION20237015027.7500218.8700823.3100572.5802354166670.881.687.178.85TT-4.24998-23.2499823338.72956536742 24.5850715969530.2831782888517216 22151212.5WETL
2022-12-10 03:00:24OBSERVATION20237015027.7500218.8700823.3100572.5802354166670.881.687.178.85TT-4.24998-23.2499823338.72956536742 24.5850715969530.2831782888517216 22151212.5WETL
2022-12-09 11:00:04FORECAST20237015028.2919.2123.7568.1331899665010.62741.42747.178.5974TT-3.71-22.7123335.7855109293722.8781380041490.300679886392311622141210WETL
2022-12-09 07:00:18FORECAST20237015028.6318.9223.77568.4983873264080.65841.45847.178.6284TT-3.37-22.3723336.0285359360723.0174128072750.311944048008631622141210WETL
2022-12-09 03:00:10FORECAST20237015031.518.1724.83567.5006802980030.6791.4797.178.649TT-0.5-19.523335.3640660092522.6373026031290.413166258041531622141210WETL
2022-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20237015031.2416.723.9764.6884702667370.68761.05767.178.2276TT-0.76-20.7623333.4820546798721.5724439786490.403633877628191622141210WETL
2022-12-08 19:00:01FORECAST20237015030.8117.3724.0964.4692228930460.60060.97067.178.1406TT-1.19-21.1923333.3347624032321.4898330953750.38799618928907162213127.5WETL
2022-12-08 15:00:03FORECAST20237015030.5819.2924.93565.3565596116070.65361.02367.178.1936TT-1.42-21.4223333.9303774044821.8245406169620.379704040786891622141210WETL
2022-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20237015030.5820.0225.367.1393638005960.63681.00687.178.1768TT-1.42-21.4223335.1230146616222.4999459993190.379704040786891622141210WETL
2022-12-08 07:00:26FORECAST20237015030.6620.4425.5568.180392271540.67851.18857.178.3585TT-1.34-20.3423335.8169349620522.8961303571390.382582215502121622141210WETL
2022-12-08 03:00:25FORECAST20237015030.7620.3725.56568.8902530741760.64461.40467.178.5746TT-1.24-18.2423336.289057142123.1670382525950.386189054149091622141210WETL
2022-12-07 23:00:07FORECAST20237015025.3119.4922.470.9619795947810.49951.32957.178.4995TT-6.69-23.6923337.6620866799323.9611701049120.21075175157377161214128WETL
2022-12-07 19:00:03FORECAST20237015024.8719.1722.0270.2473076418690.43461.14467.178.3146TT-7.13-25.1323337.189256419423.6866374292270.19895263810636161214128WETL
2022-12-07 15:00:06FORECAST20237015024.7118.4521.5870.1957599755460.41521.21527.178.3852TT-7.29-23.2923337.1551190473723.6668598111760.19476251758987161214128WETL
2022-12-07 11:00:09FORECAST20237015028.1217.4222.7770.5314282524980.48371.24377.178.4137TT-3.88-20.8823337.3773347173323.7957052776350.295117462451111622141210WETL
2022-12-07 07:00:17FORECAST20237015031.2919.5825.43570.3690501792020.45061.19067.178.3606TT-0.71-17.7123337.2698625080823.7333598787640.405462775634861622141210WETL
2022-12-07 03:00:11FORECAST20237015033.2520.5826.91569.4610829263050.38141.15147.178.3214TT1.25-9.7523336.6680940444123.385330399060.478386508397121622141210WETL
2022-12-06 23:00:05FORECAST20237015033.3719.0526.2170.0884912337840.52531.24537.158.3953TT1.37-4.6323337.0840661389123.6257136146250.482900491875731622141210WETL
2022-12-06 19:00:06FORECAST20237015029.8320.3425.08570.6719970767510.59971.34977.158.4997TT-2.17-6.1723337.4703363799323.8497026261320.353064202132691622141210WETL
2022-12-06 15:00:06FORECAST20237015028.1319.5523.8471.1464504222540.64381.43387.158.5838TT-3.87-7.8723337.7839941276324.0321321916320.295443350052431622141210WETL
2022-12-06 11:00:04FORECAST20237015028.2320.0624.14572.5780964821010.63741.54747.158.6974TT-3.77-5.7723338.7281573181524.5842448830410.298711281425791622151212.5WETL
2022-12-06 07:00:19FORECAST20237015029.7318.8624.29573.1445382662070.66581.54587.178.7158TT-2.27-15.2723339.10077583224.8033696739440.349562742059221622151212.5WETL
2022-12-06 03:00:28FORECAST20237015031.1917.8324.5172.3713895649750.61111.47117.188.6511TT-0.81-5.8123338.5920471539224.5043769481790.401807083885211622141210WETL
2022-12-05 23:00:09FORECAST20237015031.8919.5125.773.2032485879520.7181.7086.878.578TT-0.113.8923339.1393661862824.8261033288940.427559595672381622151212.5WETL
2022-12-05 19:00:10FORECAST20237015030.2619.825.0372.1586644452080.56581.45586.888.3358TT-1.743.2623338.45189955424.422237050760.36825928498791622141210WETL
2022-12-05 15:00:04FORECAST20237015031.5319.825.66571.8964959984890.55811.46816.888.3481TT-0.476.5323338.279073489324.3210800534960.414269563554171622141210WETL
2022-12-05 11:00:10FORECAST20237015030.1519.1724.6673.5456757247750.64761.87766.878.7476TT-1.858.1523339.3643292635224.958778912570.364351404181391622151212.5WETL
2022-12-05 07:00:22FORECAST20237015030.9619.3225.1474.2938747102110.69931.77936.918.6893TT-1.044.9623339.8551904546625.2491589392530.393432014528781622151212.5WETL
2022-12-05 03:00:35FORECAST20237015030.1818.6224.474.7981765823680.7971.8576.968.817TT-1.821.1823340.185515349125.4452562478460.365415812633681622151212.5WETL
2022-12-04 23:00:07FORECAST20237015034.118.1326.11575.1306106716110.71671.54676.948.4867TT2.11.123340.4030331252425.5746877531680.510386659725871632151215WETL
2022-12-04 19:00:09FORECAST20237015026.5316.6121.5775.7593512160440.65551.49556.998.4855TT-5.47-2.4723340.8139278474625.8198420591150.24553295938669161214128WETL
2022-12-04 15:00:09FORECAST20237015029.7918.223.99574.0758422371030.56511.38516.968.3451TT-2.2111.7923339.7122450206325.164470668160.351662105594491622141210WETL
2022-12-04 11:00:10FORECAST20237015026.9517.422.17576.1673058350270.50361.41366.988.3936TT-5.054.9523341.0801836804125.9791586646530.258182556953651622141210WETL
2022-12-04 07:00:28FORECAST20237015028.8616.7822.8276.395521445410.50361.51366.878.3836TT-3.143.8623341.2290106806426.0683682032490.319665700642321622151212.5WETL
2022-12-04 03:00:16FORECAST20237015028.2517.9623.10576.1682378193970.40961.50966.858.3596TT-3.7512.2523341.0807916339125.97952285280.299366832593051622151212.5WETL
2022-12-03 23:00:10FORECAST20237015030.7616.4923.62573.6129778631790.5671.5676.778.337TT-1.2417.7623339.4085214950124.9848719793870.386189054149091622151212.5WETL
2022-12-03 19:00:06FORECAST20237015030.3716.5423.45573.9117583695990.5671.4076.788.187TT-1.6315.3723339.6046169026825.1007743857110.372180837959371622141210WETL
2022-12-03 15:00:06FORECAST20237015029.4517.6923.5774.769574326080.54921.42926.788.2092TT-2.5518.4523340.16679178125.4341262213340.339827297470481622141210WETL
2022-12-03 11:00:07FORECAST20237015031.4616.1523.80578.8336330175390.81741.59746.758.3474TT-0.5417.4623342.8136120277127.0252424840090.411696251395521622151212.5WETL
2022-12-03 07:00:25FORECAST20237015031.2316.223.71578.9647011429610.81741.58746.848.4274TT-0.779.2323342.8985194780427.0768791129480.403268349313931622151212.5WETL
2022-12-03 03:00:30FORECAST20237015026.6316.4221.52577.1967863327610.69891.37896.828.1989TT-5.377.6323341.7508595501726.3820680837320.24851429875986161214128WETL
2022-12-02 23:00:04FORECAST20237015031.7218.0824.975.7023702812460.34390.693977.6939TT-0.2821.7223340.7767166827325.7976051895440.42127253296925162213127.5WETL
2022-12-02 19:00:06FORECAST20237015031.3718.6925.0374.4989678628730.31360.66366.97.5636TT-0.6318.3723339.9895804350325.3288728265410.40839329355716162213127.5WETL
2022-12-02 15:00:05FORECAST20237015028.617.9223.2675.5000145965090.31720.73726.887.6172TT-3.417.623340.6445256041625.7186666553350.31094284104833162213127.5WETL
2022-12-02 11:00:08FORECAST20237015021.8917.0419.46576.3164742598110.26990.92996.887.8099TT-10.1114.8923341.1774711436626.0374616945630.1298937269496161213126WETL
2022-12-02 07:00:31FORECAST20237015028.3326.7827.55576.0509829777140.21560.87566.927.7956TT-3.679.3323341.0042924718425.9337116421030.30199553084917162213127.5WETL
2022-12-02 03:00:16FORECAST20237015028.824.8626.8373.3728776502430.10710.83716.977.8071TT-3.221.823339.2508312138924.89180973140.31764363381142162213127.5WETL