morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 6, 2022

[ Wednesday, October 5, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, October 7, 2022 ]

DAY 6 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/07/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 72.86°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 57.53°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 65.19°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.962 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 41 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 580 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.35 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.35 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 88 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.47 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 86 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 4 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 65.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-07 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2023	6	86	72.86	57.52994	65.19497	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	40.86	579.86	88	354.46750114127	0.96157160255378	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	6	86	57.35	57.35	57.35	0.0011	0.0011	0.35	0.3511	F	F	25.35	564.35	87	353.54069783457	0.63928502208277	16	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2022-10-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.95	58.79	64.87	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.95	577.95	87	353.54069783457	0.94462664423135	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.89	57.36	64.125	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.89	577.89	87	353.54069783457	0.94401163906865	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.98	55.82	62.9	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.98	576.98	87	353.54069783457	0.93401140324352	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.47	55.13	62.8	0.0012	0.0012	0.35	0.3512	F	F	38.47	566.47	88	354.46750114127	0.9395550589944	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	6	86	67.04	54.76	60.9	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	35.04	573.04	88	354.46750114127	0.89220914343956	16	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	DRY	L
2022-10-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	6	86	71.35	57.73	64.54	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39.35	577.35	88	354.46750114127	0.94859184358214	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.95	57.61	64.28	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.95	576.95	88	354.46750114127	0.94462664423135	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	6	86	71.39	57.95	64.67	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39.39	576.39	88	354.46750114127	0.9489756572045	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-05 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	6	86	71.39	57.95	64.67	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39.39	576.39	88	354.46750114127	0.9489756572045	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.99	58.01	64.5	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.99	563.99	88	354.46750114127	0.94503368535329	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-04 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.55	57.69	64.12	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.55	574.55	88	354.46750114127	0.9404246092779	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.31	55.49	62.9	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.31	573.31	88	354.46750114127	0.93778629647318	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	6	86	71	57.69	64.345	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39	574	88	354.46750114127	0.94513507652811	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-04 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.86	57.69	64.275	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.86	574.86	88	354.46750114127	0.94370212937536	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-04 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.43	58.08	64.255	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.43	572.43	88	354.46750114127	0.93911658817108	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	6	86	67.55	58.36	62.955	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	35.55	558.55	88	354.46750114127	0.90057363399508	16	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	DRY	L
2022-10-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	71.21	55.86	63.535	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39.21	575.21	88	354.46750114127	0.94723044538634	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-03 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.67	57.46	64.065	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.67	573.67	88	354.46750114127	0.94171057758912	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-03 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	67.92	55.2	61.56	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	35.92	570.92	88	354.46750114127	0.90633892024841	16	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	DRY	L
2022-10-03 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	67.35	56.81	62.08	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	35.35	570.35	88	354.46750114127	0.89735163878793	16	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	DRY	L
2022-10-03 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.67	54.73	62.7	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.67	573.67	88	354.46750114127	0.94171057758912	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-03 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.21	56.54	63.375	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.21	558.21	88	354.46750114127	0.93666055180964	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-02 20:00:13	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.83	55.35	62.59	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.83	572.83	88	354.46750114127	0.93223812773908	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-02 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.46	55.98	62.72	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.46	571.46	88	354.46750114127	0.9277073332924	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-02 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.36	56.33	62.845	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.36	568.36	88	354.46750114127	0.92644393772582	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-02 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	6	86	66.03	56.61	61.32	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	34.03	565.03	88	354.46750114127	0.8741787518369	16	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	DRY	L
2022-10-02 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70	53.39	61.695	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38	569	88	354.46750114127	0.93424510727623	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	6	86	68.67	52.78	60.725	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	36.67	558.67	88	354.46750114127	0.91726382272568	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.72	56.51	63.115	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.72	573.72	88	354.46750114127	0.93091457791805	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-01 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.72	56.69	63.205	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.72	569.72	88	354.46750114127	0.93091457791805	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	71.03	58.17	64.6	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39.03	575.03	88	354.46750114127	0.94543836626934	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-01 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.09	56.98	63.535	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.09	562.09	88	354.46750114127	0.93528887057322	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-01 04:00:18	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.05	56.95	63.5	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.05	576.05	88	354.46750114127	0.9348265698659	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-10-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	6	86	68.97	56.52	62.745	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	36.97	571.97	88	354.46750114127	0.92135555190845	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-30 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.01	56.42	62.715	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.01	580.01	88	354.46750114127	0.92188936116313	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.01	56.42	62.715	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.01	577.01	88	354.46750114127	0.92188936116313	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-30 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.74	57.13	63.435	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.74	580.74	88	354.46750114127	0.93115668882731	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.31	56.96	63.135	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.31	571.31	88	354.46750114127	0.92580596389682	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-30 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	6	86	69.31	56.98	63.145	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.31	575.31	88	354.46750114127	0.92580596389682	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.07	53.32	61.695	0	0	0.12	0.12	F	F	38.07	575.07	88	354.46750114127	0.9350580384672	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-29 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.63	54.86	62.745	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	38.63	582.63	88	354.46750114127	0.94128435828712	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-29 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	6	86	70.62	54.86	62.74	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	38.62	583.62	88	354.46750114127	0.94117742345215	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	6	86	62.28	52.26	57.27	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	30.28	577.28	88	354.46750114127	0.78959895628816	16	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2022-09-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	6	86	55.55	53.55	54.55	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	23.55	566.55	88	354.46750114127	0.57645086697631	16	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2022-09-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	6	86	55.48	54.74	55.11	0	0	0.15	0.15	F	F	23.48	569.48	88	354.46750114127	0.57395603295451	16	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L