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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 29, 2022

[ Wednesday, September 28, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, September 30, 2022 ]

DAY 364 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/30/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.210
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 479

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.54 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 271
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 79

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-30 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223647945.6400441.5799643.6100.230000000000020.350000000000020.190.54000000000002FF13.64004478.64004271476.45764666845 00.2101379995464316 14325240DRYM
2022-09-30 00:00:01FORECAST20223647942.7742.7742.77000.120.190.31FF10.77475.77272476.918251906900.148471639929211614325240DRYM
2022-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST20223647950.0943.246.64500.00680.12680.190.3168FF18.09483.09272476.918251906900.33050122036871624325245DRYM
2022-09-29 08:00:01FORECAST20223647951.2741.8746.5700.01370.13370.190.3237FF19.27484.27272476.918251906900.366508542739551624325245DRYM
2022-09-29 04:00:06FORECAST20223647948.9940.5244.75500.02620.14620.190.3362FF16.99481.99272476.918251906900.298283954795551624325245DRYM
2022-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST20223647950.6940.3345.5100.04960.04960.190.2396FF18.69462.69271476.4576466684500.348639394297681624315222.5DRYL
2022-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST20223647949.9541.8745.9100.06510.24510.190.4351FF17.95479.95271476.4576466684500.326323710996921624325245DRYM
2022-09-28 16:00:01FORECAST20223647950.2941.3245.80500.04590.22590.190.4159FF18.29480.29271476.4576466684500.336505775234161624325245DRYM
2022-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST20223647950.2241.245.7100.04630.22630.190.4163FF18.22480.22271476.4576466684500.334399339509961624325245DRYM
2022-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST20223647950.640.6145.60500.05280.24280.190.4328FF18.6476.6271476.4576466684500.345895261332421624325245DRYM
2022-09-28 04:00:26FORECAST20223647950.5440.5445.5400.05140.17140.190.3614FF18.54476.54271476.4576466684500.344070312675821624325245DRYM
2022-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST20223647950.940.9445.9200.04050.26050.190.4505FF18.9464.9271476.4576466684500.355073018480591624325245DRYM
2022-09-27 20:00:04FORECAST20223647950.1541.3745.7600.0430.1430.190.333FF18.15476.15271476.4576466684500.332298101427511624325245DRYM
2022-09-27 16:00:03FORECAST20223647949.7141.3945.5500.09630.30630.190.4963FF17.71475.71271476.4576466684500.319212900684291624325245DRYM
2022-09-27 12:00:02FORECAST20223647950.0640.8645.4600.09930.35930.190.5493FF18.06476.06271476.4576466684500.329604238709341624325245DRYM
2022-09-27 08:00:02FORECAST20223647949.7341.0445.38500.0810.3210.190.511FF17.73473.73271476.4576466684500.319802983160091624325245DRYM
2022-09-27 04:00:09FORECAST20223647949.8841.4245.6500.1220.3320.190.522FF17.88475.88271476.4576466684500.324243050908141624325245DRYM
2022-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST20223647949.3940.745.04500.13360.30360.190.4936FF17.39460.39271476.4576466684500.309834613189291624325245DRYM
2022-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST20223647950.1240.0645.0900.13640.23640.190.4264FF18.12473.12271476.4576466684500.331399176090121624325245DRYM
2022-09-26 16:00:01FORECAST20223647950.6740.1945.4300.33770.47770.190.6677FF18.67473.67271476.4576466684500.348028896433151624325245DRYM
2022-09-26 12:00:06FORECAST20223647949.640.4145.00500.37070.51070.190.7007FF17.6472.6271476.4576466684500.315975654521651624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-26 08:00:02FORECAST20223647949.9840.6545.31500.39720.58720.190.7772FF17.98470.98271476.4576466684500.327217083329421624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-26 04:00:10FORECAST20223647950.1240.3345.22500.35210.56210.190.7521FF18.12469.12271476.4576466684500.331399176090121624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-26 00:00:06FORECAST20223647948.8240.9344.87500.43040.63040.190.8204FF16.82455.82271476.4576466684500.293434955165341624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-25 20:00:05FORECAST20223647948.0840.6544.36500.31270.53270.190.7227FF16.08466.08271476.4576466684500.272764728873021624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-25 16:00:03FORECAST20223647948.0840.9444.5100.3040.4340.190.624FF16.08467.08271476.4576466684500.272764728873021624325245DRYM
2022-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST20223647947.8140.644.20500.37340.42340.190.6134FF15.81467.81271476.4576466684500.265406725602271624325245DRYM
2022-09-25 08:00:05FORECAST20223647946.4640.1343.29500.28480.30480.190.4948FF14.46466.46271476.4576466684500.230186651350941614325240DRYM
2022-09-25 04:00:13FORECAST20223647946.4640.0543.25500.28480.30480.190.4948FF14.46464.46271476.4576466684500.230186651350941614325240DRYM
2022-09-25 00:00:04FORECAST20223647948.5540.4744.5100.20040.26040.190.4504FF16.55457.55271476.4576466684500.285809509653381624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 20:00:04FORECAST20223647947.9241.0844.500.2540.3240.190.514FF15.92466.92271476.4576466684500.268392248571691624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 16:00:08FORECAST20223647947.8241.0144.41500.2540.3240.190.514FF15.82466.82271476.4576466684500.265677439675531624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 12:00:07FORECAST20223647952.1240.7446.4300.3680.4480.190.638FF20.12474.12271476.4576466684500.393216947781061624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 08:00:03FORECAST20223647951.6440.846.2200.3680.4080.190.598FF19.64468.64271476.4576466684500.378063779374311624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 04:00:09FORECAST20223647949.7140.6545.1800.41860.45860.190.6486FF17.71468.71271476.4576466684500.319212900684291624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 00:00:05FORECAST20223647957.5243.3950.45500.05510.07510.190.2651FF25.52464.52271476.4576466684500.569398162307331634315225DRYL
2022-09-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022364795343.0248.0100.06910.09910.190.2891FF21471271476.4576466684500.4214061823881624325245DRYM
2022-09-23 16:00:06FORECAST20223647953.1243.1448.1300.06910.09910.190.2891FF21.12471.12271476.4576466684500.425285055287111624325245DRYM
2022-09-23 12:00:03FORECAST20223647953.1942.5447.86500.18010.28010.190.4701FF21.19468.19271476.4576466684500.427551100391151624325245DRYM
2022-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20223647953.1642.6547.90500.1810.2810.190.471FF21.16463.16271476.4576466684500.426579641013431624325245DRYM
2022-09-23 04:00:10FORECAST20223647951.3242.4446.8800.2120.2920.190.482FF19.32464.32271476.4576466684500.368063275128751624325245DRYM
2022-09-23 00:00:04FORECAST20223647948.3641.3544.85500.16240.22240.210.4324FF16.36448.36271476.4576466684500.280500518107051624325245DRYM
2022-09-22 20:00:06FORECAST20223647947.2440.9544.09500.17790.25790.220.4779FF15.24459.24271476.4576466684500.250210564785481624325245DRYM
2022-09-22 16:00:04FORECAST20223647946.5140.9343.7200.14130.22130.210.4313FF14.51458.51271476.4576466684500.231442793452451614325240DRYM
2022-09-22 12:00:07FORECAST20223647958.9444.1751.55500.09570.09570.210.3057FF26.94486.94271476.4576466684500.614882586597631634325250DRYMH
2022-09-22 08:00:05FORECAST20223647958.8946.2752.5800.06240.09240.20.2924FF26.89475.89271476.4576466684500.613303692949941634325250DRYMH
2022-09-22 04:00:10FORECAST20223647956.5751.6254.09500.01530.04530.20.2453FF24.57478.57271476.4576466684500.538405216254381634315225DRYL