MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 7, 2022

[ Wednesday, July 6, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, July 8, 2022 ]

DAY 280 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.372
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 480

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 187
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 26.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -5

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-08 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022280-557.0300843.7300650.3800759.05157652173900.220.180.4FF25.03008480.03008187454.06760650043 26.8134080113030.3718068529651316 2132126DRYL
2022-07-08 00:00:01FORECAST2022280-447.2347.2347.2358.9167426666670.00410.22410.180.4041FF15.23470.23188454.5640514372326.7814332440450.087080328129243161132125DRYL
2022-07-07 12:00:01FORECAST2022280-456.150.1353.11558.5013680.05350.27350.180.4535FF24.1479.1188454.4127448035926.5837672076450.33543882735559162132126DRYL
2022-07-07 08:00:01FORECAST2022280-456.1646.7851.4758.1187013333330.06320.28320.180.4632FF24.16479.16188454.2732112173926.4017690864780.33774330500881162132126DRYL
2022-07-07 04:00:06FORECAST2022280-458.2444.9851.6158.1180757575760.07090.29090.180.4709FF26.24481.24188454.2729829996426.4014716405930.42083658023794162132126DRYL
2022-07-07 00:00:02FORECAST2022280-557.345.8451.5758.2695093333330.09150.12150.180.3015FF25.3473.3187453.7816065793326.4416315598690.3825965774584162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 20:00:01FORECAST2022280-557.1249.0453.0860.3629893333330.08010.21010.180.3901FF25.12483.12187454.5459134952627.4377501278240.37539060097512162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 16:00:01FORECAST2022280-557.3149.9653.63560.3376786666670.08510.21510.180.3951FF25.31483.31187454.5366970947627.4256891715110.38299812948903162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2022280-556.3749.8953.1358.8084880.0860.2160.180.396FF24.37482.37187453.9787705076526.6978050776540.34585647623875162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2022280-556.449.7953.09558.4228146666670.09660.26660.180.4466FF24.4482.4187453.8377147150826.5144766955430.34702140431282162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 04:00:06FORECAST2022280-556.1449.7752.95557.7622648985510.09550.29550.180.4755FF24.14481.14187453.5958046486926.2007210249890.33697446480042162132126DRYL
2022-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2022280-555.9850.025356.5311466666670.12060.40060.180.5806FF23.98472.98187453.1438533463825.6167416346230.33084845874369162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2022280-555.0749.7452.40558.6330453333330.07010.42010.180.6001FF23.07484.07187453.9146214078126.6143965744670.29690128571581162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2022280-555.3449.4552.39558.6103586666670.10810.54810.180.7281FF23.34484.34187453.906324136126.6036124586850.30680738106948162133129DRYL
2022-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2022280-555.2949.4352.3656.8779720.10010.46010.180.6401FF23.29484.29187453.2713181449425.7811533418510.30496195203737162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2022280-555.1849.2952.23556.4280653333330.08140.48140.180.6614FF23.18483.18187453.1059473764325.5678920014790.30091945943466162132126DRYL
2022-07-05 04:00:06FORECAST2022280-554.7849.2652.0256.4039143768120.10260.50260.180.6826FF22.78481.78187453.0970649402225.5564480552730.28642733219919162133129DRYL
2022-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2022280-555.2249.6752.44556.841820.10310.44310.180.6231FF23.22472.22187453.2580368502625.7640117441960.3023866636497162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 20:00:02FORECAST2022280-557.9850.2554.11557.6879333333330.06920.33920.220.5592FF25.98489.98187453.5685571305426.1654326858430.41016791834004162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2022280-558.7449.9154.32557.7025840.10510.33510.220.5551FF26.74488.74187453.5739279923326.1723876801870.44151082978858162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2022280-559.5649.9154.73556.4547080.11750.32750.220.5475FF27.56490.56187453.1157456020725.5805171081670.47573813535358162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2022280-559.2350.5354.8856.2303560.05360.32360.220.5436FF27.23486.23187453.0332161913625.4742190262650.46192779488149162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 04:00:07FORECAST2022280-559.350.4154.85555.89625550.05440.38440.210.5944FF27.3490.3187452.9102278489925.315985814410.46485399415896162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2022280-560.0550.7555.457.2942986666670.04540.38540.070.4554FF28.05487.05187453.4241777621225.9786202633910.4962933247147162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2022280-559.2349.7254.47558.239960.04470.38470.140.5247FF27.23497.23187453.7707893231726.427592619350.46192779488149162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 16:00:03FORECAST2022280-559.2349.7354.4858.2941346666670.04760.38760.160.5476FF27.23494.23187453.7906206646526.4533315514950.46192779488149162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2022280-558.9551.1855.06557.5892626666670.02750.34750.150.4975FF26.95487.95187453.5323797468726.1185953450810.45024515972479162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2022280-558.9551.255.07557.2672760.02750.34750.230.5775FF26.95489.95187453.4142609519525.9657996242710.45024515972479162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 04:00:07FORECAST2022280-558.9552.1255.53556.6368471666670.02550.27550.250.5255FF26.95491.95187453.1827121543425.6668400068610.45024515972479162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 00:00:04FORECAST2022280-564.3854.1359.25557.8344080.03080.16080.360.5208FF32.38491.38187453.622245028726.2349739968660.67232715603075163132127DRYL
2022-07-02 20:00:04FORECAST2022280-564.3554.559.42559.4554586666670.03080.12080.390.5108FF32.35515.35187454.2150828348327.0055660832630.67118632541911163142128DRYL
2022-07-02 16:00:04FORECAST2022280-564.2953.6758.9859.6382093333330.07590.20590.540.7459FF32.29511.29187454.2817639839627.0925509367920.66889988485888163142128DRYL
2022-07-02 12:00:04FORECAST2022280-565.7754.3160.0457.3196320.04980.08980.550.6398FF33.77520.77187453.433474000625.9906398661960.72328388555202164141124.5DRYL
2022-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2022280-565.7454.2960.01557.0627533333330.04980.09980.520.6198FF33.74515.74187453.3391829066225.8687819705350.72222621285484164142129DRYL
2022-07-02 04:00:08FORECAST2022280-565.4254.5159.96556.780051750.0550.0950.350.445FF33.42511.42187453.235341996425.7347261734850.71082332816544164142129DRYL
2022-07-02 00:00:04FORECAST2022280-565.2955.1760.2358.4631146666670.03150.05150.750.8015FF33.29496.29187453.8524604640126.5336284378560.70612892815771164131124DRYL
2022-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2022280-565.7555.3860.56560.6473960.04230.07230.660.7323FF33.75511.75187454.6494340785427.5733042697370.72257898941401164141124.5DRYL
2022-07-01 16:00:04FORECAST2022280-565.6755.3560.5160.5326506666670.04230.07230.670.7423FF33.67513.67187454.6076771655427.5186077122470.71975066889917164141124.5DRYL
2022-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2022280-563.8151.3757.5959.3051653333330.00060.10060.550.6506FF31.81510.81187454.1602213556726.9340470153210.65038746449206163142128DRYL
2022-07-01 08:00:04FORECAST2022280-564.9553.1259.03558.6606453333330.01750.07750.580.6575FF32.95505.95187453.9247150049926.6275167149420.69368783375667163141124DRYL
2022-07-01 04:00:06FORECAST2022280-564.953.1459.0257.6512490833330.01750.07750.540.6175FF32.9513.9187453.555107989526.1480185037210.69183881099719163141124DRYL
2022-07-01 00:00:04FORECAST2022280-561.1950.9456.06558.6481640.02620.07620.730.8062FF29.19491.19187453.9201505436826.6215834319910.5440603090627163131123.5DRYL
2022-06-30 20:00:04FORECAST2022280-561.6853.4757.57560.9405213333330.0330.0330.850.883FF29.68508.68187454.7560499233327.7130707618150.56443760954414163141124DRYL
2022-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2022280-560.5253.4957.00561.3738640.0290.0290.60.629FF28.52506.52187454.9135204121627.9198005335370.51601947845314163141124DRYL
2022-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2022280-565.3456.761.0260.39117600.040.60.64FF33.34510.34187454.5561764394527.4511820532420.70793863168869164141124.5DRYL
2022-06-30 08:00:04FORECAST2022280-559.3156.8958.160.25215866666700.040.630.67FF27.31507.31187454.5055522208727.3849406472930.46527218155956162141123.5DRYL
2022-06-30 04:00:08FORECAST2022280-558.3656.8957.62560.66020708333300.040.580.62FF26.36505.36187454.6540953978427.5794115781190.42578075889379162141123.5DRYL