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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 5, 2022

[ Monday, July 4, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 6, 2022 ]

DAY 278 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/06/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.433
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 449

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 63 in
SWE DAY: 185
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 28.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -7

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-06 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022278-756.5100641.9199849.2150262.5486595652170.0299999999999730.189999999999970.831.02FF24.51006448.51006185454.25196636942 28.4128516012710.4330345978987116 2132126DRYL
2022-07-06 00:00:01FORECAST2022278-648.1948.1948.1961.9114946666670.00890.16890.830.9989FF16.19440.19186454.5650074962828.142799037260.1691007666037161132125DRYL
2022-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2022278-658.7652.2855.5262.3210226666670.14470.30470.831.1347FF26.76450.76186454.7140271973628.3382431958180.51782448696978163132127DRYL
2022-07-05 08:00:02FORECAST2022278-659.2446.5552.89561.8701320.09430.25430.831.0843FF27.24451.24186454.5499477627128.1230652686720.53593968493475163132127DRYL
2022-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2022278-660.1741.9851.07561.7611930434780.08760.24760.831.0776FF28.17452.17186454.5102766053928.071096933670.5707939021882163132127DRYL
2022-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2022278-757.0841.8449.4662.3016533333330.10250.26250.831.0925FF25.08439.08185454.161813914628.2950318877450.45437726957373162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 20:00:01FORECAST2022278-760.6646.9553.80563.2635506666670.09710.29710.831.1271FF28.66453.66185454.5125691539928.754078947310.58895568975754163132127DRYL
2022-07-04 16:00:01FORECAST2022278-759.4347.2253.32563.2818640.08450.28450.831.1145FF27.43452.43185454.5192387894828.762824654460.54309184637006163132127DRYL
2022-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2022278-758.5747.3952.9862.099260.08750.28750.831.1175FF26.57451.57185454.0879021254228.1985226969410.51064161175416163132127DRYL
2022-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2022278-757.6647.1452.461.9448813333330.11750.31750.831.1475FF25.66447.66185454.0314992071428.1249273399820.47623238234932162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2022278-757.6347.0952.3661.5999568333330.1460.3360.831.166FF25.63451.63185453.9053995991727.9605530217260.47509961864837162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2022278-760.0147.5953.863.1811880.15250.20250.831.0325FF28.01448.01185454.4825691973128.7147486471790.56482893681041163132127DRYL
2022-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2022278-759.5847.9153.74564.180040.11760.23760.831.0676FF27.58456.58185454.8459700935629.1920325544430.54872856255107163132127DRYL
2022-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2022278-758.747.9553.32564.2627506666670.17470.31470.831.1447FF26.7453.7185454.876020456129.2315842868160.51555672493725163132127DRYL
2022-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2022278-758.3547.8153.0863.3669280.15170.28170.831.1117FF26.35452.35185454.5502146573228.8034507245750.50232043765079163132127DRYL
2022-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2022278-757.984852.9963.0692133333330.13620.34620.831.1762FF25.98453.98185454.441773233828.6612851436610.48832531473891162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 04:00:07FORECAST2022278-757.9947.9352.9662.5008311666670.09340.32340.831.1534FF25.99452.99185454.2345143526428.3900346916270.48870344990447162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2022278-758.0846.9452.5164.5708720.07030.41030.831.2403FF26.08440.08185454.987911263729.3789661797560.49210708257639162132126DRYL
2022-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2022278-761.9146.8654.38566.2711346666670.03280.36280.871.2328FF29.91463.91185455.6037702079130.1933788100890.63434742306039163132127DRYL
2022-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2022278-757.9347.4152.6766.4005306666670.05550.53550.871.4055FF25.93459.93185455.6505304331330.2554370193080.48643480311904162133129DRYL
2022-07-02 12:00:03FORECAST2022278-762.9147.5755.2464.3968333333330.03280.52280.871.3928FF30.91466.91185454.9247218354229.2957114912480.669385053638771631331210.5DRYL
2022-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2022278-762.2847.5354.90564.0745186666670.03970.50970.861.3697FF30.28463.28185454.807623014829.1415795306040.647461209591251631331210.5DRYL
2022-07-02 04:00:07FORECAST2022278-762.1547.4554.863.6547130833330.02580.31580.871.1858FF30.15462.15185454.654961351128.9409311167180.64287265587332163132127DRYL
2022-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2022278-760.5145.1852.84565.4161133333330.02460.66460.921.5846FF28.51443.51185455.2944019608129.7835901987010.583414283417111631331210.5DRYL
2022-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2022278-760.4344.652.51567.4909520.02090.58090.911.4909FF28.43459.43185456.043969448430.7788416519310.580452001101611631331210.5DRYL
2022-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2022278-760.3646.0453.267.3759880.02090.57090.931.5009FF28.36461.36185456.0025402246430.7236216781450.577856253232561631331210.5DRYL
2022-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2022278-761.4746.4353.9565.6145733333330.02790.387911.3879FF29.47463.47185455.3662696731929.8786634949980.61854704899201163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 08:00:04FORECAST2022278-755.1146.8250.96565.2200986666670.04690.42691.011.4369FF23.11456.11185455.2233841997529.6897140328820.38154984296212162132126DRYL
2022-07-01 04:00:06FORECAST2022278-759.7246.8353.27564.2150210833330.04690.45690.941.3969FF27.72463.72185454.8586801586429.2087597363240.55398067110023163132127DRYL
2022-07-01 00:00:04FORECAST2022278-761.7645.8953.82564.90356133333300.590.951.54FF29.76445.76185455.1086253848629.5381705809950.628984955209711631331210.5DRYL
2022-06-30 20:00:04FORECAST2022278-762.5644.4353.49567.13594933333300.690.971.66FF30.56460.56185455.9159992176730.6083534237340.657270973587421631331210.5DRYL
2022-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2022278-762.4844.4353.45566.95265200.41.011.41FF30.48460.48185455.8498795936930.5203583526780.65447863222202163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2022278-758.8745.9352.465.6753653333330.03810.45810.991.4481FF26.87454.87185455.3882768468229.9077914504320.52198050037067163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 08:00:04FORECAST2022278-759.5346.7753.1564.9269786666670.03530.44531.031.4753FF27.53456.53185455.1171183670429.5493794350520.54685069150184163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 04:00:08FORECAST2022278-759.4146.7453.07564.8979670833330.03560.45560.971.4256FF27.41457.41185455.106596391429.5354929120170.54233960353848163132127DRYL
2022-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2022278-761.3946.8554.1266.1267133333330.00160.33160.951.2816FF29.39447.39185455.551562080230.1241275542290.61565202519415163132127DRYL
2022-06-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022278-763.6147.5655.58566.81429333333300.270.951.22FF31.61458.61185455.7999500030430.4539515608220.69307847351479163132127DRYL
2022-06-29 16:00:04FORECAST2022278-763.6247.5355.57566.67013733333300.2411.24FF31.62462.62185455.7479096561630.3847757261560.69341148520255163132127DRYL
2022-06-29 12:00:04FORECAST2022278-757.4546.1551.865.1547226666670.02530.42530.971.3953FF25.45464.45185455.199690061429.6584095639030.46830758171547162132126DRYL
2022-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2022278-757.5146.1151.8165.1299040.02530.48530.991.4753FF25.51459.51185455.1906940340329.6465262041290.4705706674736162132126DRYL
2022-06-29 04:00:07FORECAST2022278-756.6646.1751.41565.721622250.02410.49410.981.4741FF24.66456.66185455.4050199315829.9299566906970.43863313466743162133129DRYL
2022-06-29 00:00:04FORECAST2022278-760.3247.854.0667.5343653333330.00710.24711.051.2971FF28.32452.32185456.0596110315630.7996963851830.57637144151135163132127DRYL
2022-06-28 20:00:03FORECAST2022278-760.5646.8353.69568.7967106666670.04310.17311.131.3031FF28.56459.56185456.5136736439631.406639121060.58526331887534163132127DRYL
2022-06-28 16:00:04FORECAST2022278-763.1650.0656.6168.8473866666670.00360.09361.121.2136FF31.16465.16185456.5318713021831.4310262691980.67793157838086163132127DRYL
2022-06-28 12:00:05FORECAST2022278-756.1948.252.19568.17864933333300.071.151.22FF24.19466.19185456.2915403584331.1093409238640.4211302698382162131123DRYL
2022-06-28 08:00:05FORECAST2022278-749.6548.1948.9268.38364933333300.121.221.34FF17.65454.65185456.3652566896531.2079216813820.20633238787602161132125DRYL
2022-06-28 04:00:07FORECAST2022278-749.0948.548.79568.112049500.121.131.25FF17.09454.09185456.2675833386431.0773202216070.1915124207899161132125DRYL