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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 4, 2022

[ Sunday, July 3, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 5, 2022 ]

DAY 277 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/05/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.245
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 438

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.16 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 64 in
SWE DAY: 184
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-05 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022277-851.7400635.5699443.65564.16625304347800.161.251.41FF19.74006437.74006184454.29630186917 29.1504914624540.2454436716539316 1132125DRYL
2022-07-05 00:00:01FORECAST2022277-742.0942.0942.0964.9448413333330.00020.16021.251.4102FF10.09428.09185455.1235964469529.5579297583030.052604255587198161132125DRYL
2022-07-04 12:00:01FORECAST2022277-753.2344.7148.9764.7666653333330.04450.20451.251.4545FF21.23439.23185455.058965928929.472651753250.29277123659902162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2022277-750.1938.1944.1964.5982920.04210.20211.251.4521FF18.19436.19185454.9978642867629.3920848965730.20092913803466161132125DRYL
2022-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2022277-754.1339.5746.8564.2571941666670.02790.18791.251.4379FF22.13440.13185454.8740018714929.2289270596250.32326911216387162132126DRYL
2022-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2022277-852.5739.4245.99565.9146853333330.04670.04671.251.2967FF20.57433.57184454.9326344516929.9867414477480.27129149847716162131123DRYL
2022-07-03 20:00:02FORECAST2022277-852.5244.248.3666.8891013333330.05070.12071.251.3707FF20.52442.52184455.2860435333130.4536743015520.2696967760377162132126DRYL
2022-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2022277-851.3743.7947.5866.9677666666670.07430.14431.251.3943FF19.37441.37184455.3145363736830.4913976318140.2343593930745161132125DRYL
2022-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2022277-850.344.8847.5966.0466880.06090.13091.251.3809FF18.3440.3184454.9805614832830.0499591903510.2039193138414161132125DRYL
2022-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2022277-850.5844.5847.5865.7141506666670.07460.21461.251.4646FF18.58441.58184454.8597943234129.8907250563770.21164911460126161132125DRYL
2022-07-03 04:00:06FORECAST2022277-850.3144.5547.4365.1384978333330.08440.23441.251.4844FF18.31441.31184454.6504939363729.6152502141980.20419245400622161132125DRYL
2022-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2022277-850.5444.6247.5867.1773240.11670.33671.251.5867FF18.54427.54184455.390410945830.5919091825990.21053449197813161132125DRYL
2022-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2022277-851.8644.3948.12569.0240933333330.08570.36571.251.6157FF19.86447.86184456.0573286765231.4789436199190.24909562297424162132126DRYL
2022-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2022277-852.0344.1648.09569.0626333333330.07430.52431.251.7743FF20.03448.03184456.0712132029631.4974789713250.25432084952355162133129DRYL
2022-07-02 12:00:03FORECAST2022277-853.0544.6448.84567.2122760.06370.53371.251.7837FF21.05450.05184455.4030621119230.6086763019110.28683546772108162133129DRYL
2022-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2022277-852.6644.3748.51566.8383560.08050.50051.251.7505FF20.66446.66184455.26766038730.4293419602330.27417377711674162133129DRYL
2022-07-02 04:00:07FORECAST2022277-851.6344.2247.92566.4307410833330.06270.33271.251.5827FF19.63445.63184455.1199106786430.2339529481620.24211798882881161132125DRYL
2022-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2022277-851.2942.9547.1268.0520853333330.17310.73311.251.9831FF19.29429.29184455.7067006051231.0117912765520.23200006603671161133127.5DRYL
2022-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2022277-851.8542.4147.1370.0866346666670.13530.63531.251.8853FF19.85444.85184456.4396253636331.9903172702510.24879004254558161133127.5DRYL
2022-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2022277-853.3141.6447.47570.0106480.18080.65081.251.9008FF21.31447.31184456.4123200087431.9537222789950.29542752005697162133129DRYL
2022-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2022277-855.1242.6848.968.2726306666670.07560.52561.251.7756FF23.12448.12184455.7863328729131.1177319671470.3582365831535162133129DRYL
2022-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2022277-853.3342.7148.0267.7461906666670.09850.54851.261.8085FF21.33447.33184455.5961773972630.8649055009590.29609331733173162133129DRYL
2022-07-01 04:00:05FORECAST2022277-853.5745.9549.7666.880731750.0780.5181.251.768FF21.57449.57184455.2830117078330.4496609763630.30413596624697162133129DRYL
2022-07-01 00:00:03FORECAST2022277-850.5344.447.46567.683580.18520.70521.251.9552FF18.53429.53184455.5735448651830.8348484697660.2102563744904161133127.5DRYL
2022-06-30 20:00:03FORECAST2022277-852.3143.1347.7269.8578026666670.17780.81781.262.0778FF20.31444.31184456.3573799865331.8801237965760.26305056549009162133129DRYL
2022-06-30 16:00:02FORECAST2022277-852.3143.3847.84569.6686560.18130.57131.261.8313FF20.31444.31184456.289361969331.7890665954990.26305056549009162133129DRYL
2022-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2022277-848.8341.7545.2968.0514520.20370.57371.261.8337FF16.83441.83184455.7064718633231.0114870960960.16616589118084161133127.5DRYL
2022-06-30 08:00:04FORECAST2022277-848.6744.846.73567.4267213333330.15030.60031.261.8603FF16.67442.67184455.4806577976530.7115673860460.16234732917724161133127.5DRYL
2022-06-30 04:00:07FORECAST2022277-848.6544.846.72567.3889630833330.15080.55081.261.8108FF16.65443.65184455.4669982796230.6934487327420.16187404688147161133127.5DRYL
2022-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2022277-852.2243.9548.08568.9288720.0810.4311.271.701FF20.22432.22184456.0230181488331.4331522470340.26022799888055162132126DRYL
2022-06-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022277-853.7444.4349.08569.8126506666670.06290.36291.281.6429FF21.74440.74184456.3411460874131.8583850166270.30989100148163162132126DRYL
2022-06-29 16:00:04FORECAST2022277-853.4844.4348.95569.6731960.06290.37291.291.6629FF21.48445.48184456.2909949571231.7912519246820.30110857456331162132126DRYL
2022-06-29 12:00:04FORECAST2022277-852.845.7949.29567.6211733333330.3490.4991.291.789FF20.8452.8184455.5509824931230.8048919493370.27868713740504162133129DRYL
2022-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2022277-852.8645.7649.3167.5988693333330.3490.5691.31.869FF20.86447.86184455.5429178853630.7941861818580.28063243418036162133129DRYL
2022-06-29 04:00:06FORECAST2022277-851.1245.5448.3368.1461435833330.36410.55411.321.8741FF19.12446.12184455.7406676578431.0569689749750.22703060846555161133127.5DRYL
2022-06-29 00:00:04FORECAST2022277-853.9645.4849.7270.2494946666670.04060.32061.391.7106FF21.96437.96184456.4981303830832.0687629756890.31740818262787162132126DRYL
2022-06-28 20:00:03FORECAST2022277-853.6747.150.38571.0247053333330.08240.21241.471.6824FF21.67444.67184456.776281691932.4424008104230.30751553162259162132126DRYL
2022-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2022277-857.5747.0352.370.7526840.02370.17371.461.6337FF25.57447.57184456.6787407970832.3112466371340.44943462562069162132126DRYL
2022-06-28 12:00:05FORECAST2022277-857.7547.2152.4869.3982080.00490.19491.451.6449FF25.75455.75184456.1920508326331.658910831630.45630586505382162132126DRYL
2022-06-28 08:00:04FORECAST2022277-856.9147.0851.99569.1184786666670.00190.32191.441.7619FF24.91450.91184456.0913297849131.524338847790.42438485919066162132126DRYL
2022-06-28 04:00:07FORECAST2022277-856.6147.0851.84568.4797921666670.00190.32191.351.6719FF24.61450.61184455.8610920227731.2172728385890.41309256873192162132126DRYL
2022-06-28 00:00:05FORECAST2022277-852.0843.8647.9768.6004946666670.22040.36041.351.7104FF20.08437.08184455.9046322543331.2752832934720.25586852787231162132126DRYL
2022-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022277-852.1543.8848.01572.2382906666670.21450.43451.361.7945FF20.15454.15184457.2106267260333.0281141493240.25804349532749162132126DRYL
2022-06-27 16:00:04FORECAST2022277-852.148.550.372.4355826666670.11860.34861.431.7786FF20.1454.1184457.2811115589133.123423758230.25648897075178162132126DRYL
2022-06-27 12:00:04FORECAST2022277-853.7749.251.48569.6185546666670.02870.30871.411.7187FF21.77467.77184456.2713398228831.7649512142920.31091150053058162132126DRYL
2022-06-27 08:00:04FORECAST2022277-850.847.7449.2769.4123520.00730.22731.411.6373FF18.8453.8184456.1971417069631.6657165815570.2178408627351161132125DRYL
2022-06-27 04:00:07FORECAST2022277-850.8549.9750.4169.4660316666670.0040.2241.431.654FF18.85454.85184456.2164610578531.6915471306990.21926248307909161132125DRYL