Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 3, 2022

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DAY 246 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/04/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.02°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.95°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.266 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 236 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.37 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.38 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.12 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 141 in SWE DAY: 153 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.01 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 65.60 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -39 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-04 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	246	-39	46.02002	37.86998	41.945	141.06271	0.37	0.74	3.38	4.12	T	F	14.02002	236.02002	153	465.00751622684	65.595220409328	0.26579853289514	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-04 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	246	-38	38.28	38.28	38.28	142.96566933333	0.0091	0.3791	3.38	3.7591	T	F	6.28	228.28	154	466.14990718407	66.643433490241	0.080494246147276	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-06-03 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	246	-38	46.94	35.65	41.295	142.50012999643	0.2586	0.6286	3.38	4.0086	T	F	14.94	236.94	154	465.9940245178	66.404209071344	0.29688231035608	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-03 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	246	-38	45.89	35.78	40.835	142.47525547091	0.4459	0.8159	3.38	4.1959	T	F	13.89	235.89	154	465.98569026419	66.39143026618	0.26154212946988	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	246	-38	45.67	36.53	41.1	142.12105383266	0.4786	0.8486	3.38	4.2286	T	F	13.67	235.67	154	465.86695722967	66.209502907294	0.25442052385117	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	46.79	37.24	42.015	143.80504133333	0.4116	0.5016	3.38	3.8816	T	F	14.79	223.79	153	465.92996529218	67.003077917281	0.29170242237045	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-06-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.15	36.63	40.89	144.951384	0.3737	0.7337	3.38	4.1137	T	F	13.15	234.15	153	466.31366492902	67.592811109574	0.23799970875165	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-02 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.8	37.44	41.62	144.804932	0.4275	0.7875	3.38	4.1675	T	F	13.8	234.8	153	466.26470727561	67.517429231045	0.25861644292946	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.33	37.58	41.455	143.65097333333	0.4228	0.7828	3.38	4.1628	T	F	13.33	234.33	153	465.87831099319	66.923872829062	0.24361731464228	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.43	37.26	41.345	143.32854933333	0.4399	0.8499	3.38	4.2299	T	F	13.43	228.43	153	465.77014662717	66.758159438847	0.24676882799564	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-02 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.2	37.93	41.565	142.70601116667	0.4528	0.9028	3.38	4.2828	T	F	13.2	225.2	153	465.5610514284	66.438360603907	0.23955300655036	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.32	38.62	41.97	143.712292	0.4357	0.7057	3.38	4.0857	T	F	13.32	221.32	153	465.8988716926	66.955394691158	0.24330336125362	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.9	37.76	41.83	144.93363733333	0.4642	0.9542	3.38	4.3342	T	F	13.9	227.9	153	466.30773333951	67.583675909558	0.26186824999123	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.43	37.96	41.695	144.69468933333	0.4821	0.9021	3.38	4.2821	T	F	13.43	228.43	153	466.22784207715	67.460692767904	0.24676882799564	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.53	37.69	41.61	143.56024666667	0.5028	0.9028	3.38	4.2828	T	F	13.53	228.53	153	465.84788365246	66.877237086292	0.24994200559377	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	44.97	38.37	41.67	143.28702266667	0.4219	0.8719	3.38	4.2519	T	F	12.97	225.97	153	465.7562091347	66.736820495425	0.2324537466684	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.75	38.63	42.19	143.21787841667	0.4081	0.9481	3.38	4.3281	T	F	13.75	224.75	153	465.73299915901	66.701292048184	0.25699840448029	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.28	38.64	41.96	142.883036	0.3071	0.8871	3.38	4.2671	T	F	13.28	215.28	153	465.62054334433	66.529276857008	0.24204973394082	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.88	40.38	43.13	143.85624933333	0.279	0.779	3.5	4.279	T	F	13.88	222.88	153	465.94712929662	67.029406408245	0.26121621728439	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.89	40.16	43.025	143.89571866667	0.2746	0.8246	3.5	4.3246	T	F	13.89	221.89	153	465.96035718681	67.049700467573	0.26154212946988	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	46.45	39.69	43.07	142.56977866667	0.3063	0.8063	3.5	4.3063	T	F	14.45	224.45	153	465.51525018538	66.368406184888	0.28011984199844	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	47.21	41.07	44.14	142.13867733333	0.1693	0.6393	3.51	4.1493	T	F	15.21	225.21	153	465.37020983539	66.147106096338	0.30631049465472	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-31 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	48.03	41.07	44.55	142.47645025	0.1913	0.7013	3.52	4.2213	T	F	16.03	226.03	153	465.48386410734	66.320488606667	0.33571835119866	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	48.74	41.62	45.18	142.99960533333	0.1862	0.7362	3.48	4.2162	T	F	16.74	224.74	153	465.65970365595	66.589153842438	0.36202877372446	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	48.36	41.91	45.135	142.979652	0.2274	0.8274	3.51	4.3374	T	F	16.36	224.36	153	465.65300135394	66.578904086342	0.34785657061568	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	48.36	41.91	45.135	142.792528	0.2433	0.7733	3.5	4.2733	T	F	16.36	226.36	153	465.59013008199	66.482791686256	0.34785657061568	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	48.88	42.43	45.655	142.43051720219	0.1824	0.7024	3.53	4.2324	T	F	16.88	225.88	153	465.46841422327	66.296906979101	0.3672993893549	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.53	42.34	43.935	142.92449400703	0.1383	0.6883	3.52	4.2083	T	F	13.53	216.53	153	465.63447207927	66.550571314161	0.24994200559377	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-30 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	45.61	42.34	43.975	142.70277765008	0.1457	0.6057	3.51	4.1157	T	F	13.61	224.61	153	465.55996450667	66.436700097772	0.25249603131262	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	49.83	43.89	46.86	144.23871856505	0.0968	0.4168	3.39	3.8068	T	F	17.83	226.83	153	466.07525555024	67.226097615445	0.40367963356672	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-05-29 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	48.97	43.1	46.035	143.47986395891	0.1357	0.3757	3.62	3.9957	T	F	16.97	229.97	153	465.82091954494	66.835922165523	0.37070096063512	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-05-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	48.68	43.1	45.89	143.63979464845	0.1408	0.4408	3.65	4.0908	T	F	16.68	221.68	153	465.87456233467	66.918126465689	0.35977785210614	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	51.88	43.77	47.825	144.39559338107	0.1473	0.4673	3.66	4.1273	T	F	19.88	227.88	153	466.12777224223	67.306796264315	0.48466595752422	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	52.13	43.47	47.8	145.0466395591	0.069	0.379	3.69	4.069	T	F	20.13	222.13	153	466.34549827583	67.641847398422	0.49465476271722	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	52.74	43.47	48.105	144.6307104292	0.069	0.359	3.76	4.119	T	F	20.74	227.74	153	466.2064427679	67.427769024194	0.51902889339918	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	52.44	44.65	48.545	145.98820599208	0.0706	0.4906	3.5	3.9906	T	F	20.44	232.44	153	466.65974530224	68.126819025395	0.50704484101018	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-05-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	53.13	44.12	48.625	145.93015213401	0.0375	0.4075	3.77	4.1775	T	F	21.13	239.13	153	466.64039160743	68.096903339149	0.53458087568808	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	53.53	44.12	48.825	144.84772107022	0.0375	0.4675	3.8	4.2675	T	F	21.53	240.53	153	466.27901317972	67.539452441956	0.55047673393892	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	47.06	40.86	43.96	144.55230831411	0.4108	0.6308	3.8	4.4308	T	F	15.06	237.06	153	466.18021452071	67.387426099335	0.30105624893059	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	44.92	39.87	42.395	144.93887388491	0.386	0.586	3.91	4.496	T	F	12.92	231.92	153	466.30948361569	67.586371437111	0.23092603368496	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-28 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	44.92	39.87	42.395	144.84626044002	0.386	0.576	4.03	4.606	T	F	12.92	238.92	153	466.27852486486	67.538700650163	0.23092603368496	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	54.58	41.93	48.255	146.5384334839	0.5338	0.7138	3.74	4.4538	T	F	22.58	240.58	153	466.8430356614	68.410447128691	0.59175609763929	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	54.39	41.65	48.02	146.62487579953	0.5919	0.7719	3.91	4.6819	T	F	22.39	249.39	153	466.87180782602	68.455020836793	0.58434769580984	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-27 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	54.54	41.68	48.11	146.69711147162	0.5284	0.7084	3.71	4.4184	T	F	22.54	249.54	153	466.89584649085	68.492272038304	0.59019906218014	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	46.81	43.63	45.22	148.5932633176	0.2477	0.4377	3.79	4.2277	T	F	14.81	228.81	153	467.5252751085	69.471106311832	0.29239063774352	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-27 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	46.21	44.35	45.28	148.6023986441	0.0051	0.1351	3.86	3.9951	T	F	14.21	226.21	153	467.52830025322	69.475826851629	0.27208024304443	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-05-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	246	-39	46.14	44.37	45.255	148.75534759439	0.0009	0.1309	3.94	4.0709	T	F	14.14	234.14	153	467.57893856148	69.554867533531	0.26975713214913	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L