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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 9, 2021

[ Wednesday, September 8, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, September 10, 2021 ]

DAY 344 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/10/2021 12:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.198
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 461

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 251
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-10 00:00:01FORECAST20213445952.0552.0552.0500.00050.00050.10.1005FF20.05461.05252467.3652216514200.197619179546079313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20213445967.4451.959.6700.00340.00340.10.1034FF35.44476.44252467.3652216514200.771677072930619343315225DRYL
2021-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20213445967.3350.7459.03500.00310.00310.10.1031FF35.33476.33252467.3652216514200.76821537878049343315225DRYL
2021-09-09 04:00:06FORECAST20213445965.0651.1458.100.00110.00110.10.1011FF33.06474.06252467.3652216514200.690679086974269333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20213445965.9949.6857.83500.00680.00680.10.1068FF33.99464.99251466.8682458376700.72378842244299343315225DRYL
2021-09-08 20:00:01FORECAST20213445964.8148.5856.69500.00110.00110.10.1011FF32.81476.81251466.8682458376700.681491835761749333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 16:00:01FORECAST20213445965.7849.6457.7100.00020.00020.10.1002FF33.78477.78251466.8682458376700.716465866568949343315225DRYL
2021-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20213445965.0949.4157.250000.10.1FF33.09477.09251466.8682458376700.691773745886359333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20213445964.1948.6456.4150000.10.1FF32.19476.19251466.8682458376700.658230859774179333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 04:00:09FORECAST20213445964.2548.556.37500.00020.01020.10.1102FF32.25477.25251466.8682458376700.660510157602649333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20213445963.9448.7756.35500.00140.04140.10.1414FF31.94459.94251466.8682458376700.648672416946619333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20213445963.3349.0756.200.00450.08450.10.1845FF31.33475.33251466.8682458376700.624962747365919333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20213445962.2547.9255.08500.00220.06220.10.1622FF30.25474.25251466.8682458376700.581858912034789333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20213445962.2647.5854.9200.00460.05460.10.1546FF30.26475.26251466.8682458376700.582263446620799333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20213445962.3647.6655.0100.00370.06370.10.1637FF30.36474.36251466.8682458376700.586303938049799333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20213445961.9246.6254.2700.00750.04750.10.1475FF29.92473.92251466.8682458376700.568463185739079333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20213445959.2345.952.56500.00810.04810.10.1481FF27.23459.23251466.8682458376700.457702213212229323315220DRYL
2021-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20213445958.9546.4552.700.01560.06560.10.1656FF26.95467.95251466.8682458376700.446213991610579323315220DRYL
2021-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20213445961.7546.1853.96500.01120.05120.10.1512FF29.75470.75251466.8682458376700.561530484739739333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20213445959.2544.4751.8600.0030.0430.10.143FF27.25468.25251466.8682458376700.458524270367839323315220DRYL
2021-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20213445954.8445.450.1200.00560.05560.10.1556FF22.84465.84251466.8682458376700.287383944974139323315220DRYL
2021-09-06 04:00:07FORECAST20213445959.9545.5552.75000.060.10.16FF27.95469.95251466.8682458376700.487382993979639323315220DRYL
2021-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20213445961.2645.5953.425000.040.10.14FF29.26461.26251466.8682458376700.541449490825489333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20213445960.3144.8452.57500.00610.11610.10.2161FF28.31466.31251466.8682458376700.50225999577229333325245DRYM
2021-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20213445962.947.1255.0100.00030.07030.10.1703FF30.9469.9251466.8682458376700.60795472971239333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20213445962.0247.1454.5800.00030.05030.10.1503FF30.02471.02251466.8682458376700.572531558122169333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20213445956.1445.2150.67500.00050.14050.110.2505FF24.14461.14251466.8682458376700.334924786542639323325240DRYM
2021-09-05 04:00:08FORECAST20213445960.845.2153.00500.00050.14050.110.2505FF28.8474.8251466.8682458376700.522500198747989333325245DRYM
2021-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20213445958.84652.400.00030.05030.110.1603FF26.8460.8251466.8682458376700.44007748470019323315220DRYL
2021-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20213445958.7846.252.4900.00110.03110.120.1511FF26.78474.78251466.8682458376700.43926033717399323315220DRYL
2021-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20213445959.2946.252.74500.00110.02110.110.1311FF27.29477.29251466.8682458376700.460168913436279323315220DRYL
2021-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20213445958.8244.1651.4900.0010.1810.110.291FF26.82472.82251466.8682458376700.440894887524739323325240DRYM
2021-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20213445957.5544.2550.900.00170.16170.110.2717FF25.55456.55251466.8682458376700.389633444652229323325240DRYM
2021-09-04 04:00:06FORECAST20213445957.5443.0150.27500.00170.16170.110.2717FF25.54462.54251466.8682458376700.389236110071239323325240DRYM
2021-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20213445958.6346.4552.5400.00780.09780.120.2178FF26.63458.63251466.8682458376700.433140213671919323325240DRYM
2021-09-03 20:00:03FORECAST20213445960.5148.1954.3500.00830.03830.120.1583FF28.51477.51251466.8682458376700.510524963244259333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20213445960.4746.6453.55500.00860.03860.120.1586FF28.47479.47251466.8682458376700.508872217671759333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20213445959.4443.6651.5500.00130.18130.120.3013FF27.44471.44251466.8682458376700.46634216793119323325240DRYM
2021-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20213445961.1644.6252.8900.00060.17060.130.3006FF29.16463.16251466.8682458376700.537336586768479333325245DRYM
2021-09-03 04:00:06FORECAST20213445961.2144.5252.86500.00060.17060.130.3006FF29.21463.21251466.8682458376700.539393565576369333325245DRYM
2021-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20213445964.5445.3754.955000.050.110.16FF32.54479.54251466.8682458376700.671442961699939333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20213445967.3147.6557.48000.050.110.16FF35.31493.31251466.8682458376700.767582858604419343315225DRYL
2021-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20213445967.347.3957.345000.050.110.16FF35.3494.3251466.8682458376700.767266239462079343315225DRYL
2021-09-02 12:00:04FORECAST20213445951.9744.0648.015000.110.110.22FF19.97476.97251466.8682458376700.195322663439759313325235DRYL
2021-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20213445953.7850.0651.92000.110.110.22FF21.78480.78251466.8682458376700.251150148029959323325240DRYM
2021-09-02 04:00:07FORECAST20213445953.7851.7952.785000.110.110.22FF21.78486.78251466.8682458376700.251150148029959323325240DRYM