MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 6, 2021

[ Sunday, September 5, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 7, 2021 ]

DAY 341 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/07/2021 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.648
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 408

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 248
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 56

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-07 04:00:03OBSERVATION20213415664.2700443.2300253.750030000.20.2FF32.27004408.27004248465.36593694953 00.6478073680755891 33315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20213415655.4855.4855.4800.00090.00090.20.2009FF23.48399.48249465.8686107041100.335739995974239123315220DRYL
2021-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20213415663.9854.6759.3250000.20.2FF31.98407.98249465.8686107041100.637915949249099133315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20213415664.6346.9955.810000.20.2FF32.63408.63249465.8686107041100.659945057787139133315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 04:00:06FORECAST20213415664.4847.2755.8750000.20.2FF32.48408.48249465.8686107041100.654906365805879133315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20213415665.8146.9956.400.00310.00310.20.2031FF33.81396.81248465.3659369495300.698532656110099133215220DRYL
2021-09-05 20:00:01FORECAST20213415665.8947.2456.56500.00480.00480.20.2048FF33.89405.89248465.3659369495300.701076250724289143315225DRYL
2021-09-05 16:00:01FORECAST20213415666.2847.256.740000.20.2FF34.28406.28248465.3659369495300.713334382295529143315225DRYL
2021-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20213415666.2247.5756.8950000.20.2FF34.22406.22248465.3659369495300.71146409374479143315225DRYL
2021-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20213415666.8147.9857.395000.010.20.21FF34.81407.81248465.3659369495300.729600788179969143315225DRYL
2021-09-05 04:00:07FORECAST20213415666.9748.1657.565000.010.20.21FF34.97407.97248465.3659369495300.734419258589699143315225DRYL
2021-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20213415667.3648.2357.795000.010.20.21FF35.36396.36248465.3659369495300.745979227238699143215222.5DRYL
2021-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20213415668.2847.8558.065000.020.20.22FF36.28410.28248465.3659369495300.772168608394279143315150DRYMH
2021-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20213415668.5948.1658.375000.010.20.21FF36.59410.59248465.3659369495300.780639117203249143315150DRYMH
2021-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20213415669.7149.2359.47000.010.20.21FF37.71411.71248465.3659369495300.809695481671349143315150DRYMH
2021-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20213415670.3549.559.925000.010.20.21FF38.35406.35248465.3659369495300.825185676862429143315150DRYMH
2021-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20213415670.5649.9160.235000.010.20.21FF38.56406.56248465.3659369495300.830089329741739143315150DRYMH
2021-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20213415670.3949.5859.985000.020.20.22FF38.39397.39248465.3659369495300.826126549431529143215145DRYM
2021-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20213415672.2549.2260.735000.020.20.22FF40.25414.25248465.3659369495300.866314254813419153315155DRYH
2021-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20213415672.7149.7561.23000.020.20.22FF40.71415.71248465.3659369495300.875181994190579153315155DRYH
2021-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20213415671.8350.3761.100.00030.02030.20.2203FF39.83414.83248465.3659369495300.857848710756269153315155DRYH
2021-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20213415669.0950.1359.6100.00030.03030.20.2303FF37.09408.09248465.3659369495300.793913347901269143315150DRYMH
2021-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20213415671.4949.0260.25500.00030.03030.20.2303FF39.49408.49248465.3659369495300.850736061807259153315155DRYH
2021-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20213415672.3251.0461.68000.010.20.21FF40.32413.32248465.3659369495300.867690857952439153315155DRYH
2021-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20213415672.4651.2961.875000.010.20.21FF40.46426.46248465.3659369495300.870414757972739153315155DRYH
2021-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20213415672.4751.6862.075000.010.20.21FF40.47427.47248465.3659369495300.870607829289289153315155DRYH
2021-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST2021341567351.1962.095000.010.20.21FF41428248465.3659369495300.880557247664949153315155DRYH
2021-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20213415668.9551.0259.985000.010.20.21FF36.95421.95248465.3659369495300.790245310901779143315150DRYMH
2021-09-02 04:00:06FORECAST20213415672.9752.4762.72000.010.20.21FF40.97427.97248465.3659369495300.880008859652679153315155DRYH
2021-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20213415670.5851.2760.925000.010.210.22FF38.58413.58248465.3659369495300.830551711909769143315150DRYMH
2021-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20213415670.149.4459.77000.020.210.23FF38.1427.1248465.3659369495300.819232398127849143315150DRYMH
2021-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20213415670.0349.5759.8000.020.20.22FF38.03427.03248465.3659369495300.817543019347499143315150DRYMH
2021-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20213415670.1851.1460.66000.030.20.23FF38.18429.18248465.3659369495300.821151094888959143315150DRYMH
2021-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20213415668.3550.3359.34000.090.210.3FF36.35417.35248465.3659369495300.774097205928359143315150DRYMH
2021-09-01 04:00:10FORECAST20213415668.3750.4359.4000.090.210.3FF36.37422.37248465.3659369495300.774646536447439143315150DRYMH
2021-09-01 00:00:04FORECAST20213415663.5946.7555.17000.140.20.34FF31.59409.59248465.3659369495300.624470149651229133325245DRYM
2021-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20213415664.8446.555.67000.120.210.33FF32.84420.84248465.3659369495300.666951358509329133325245DRYM
2021-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20213415664.9646.555.73000.120.210.33FF32.96419.96248465.3659369495300.670929159784619133325245DRYM
2021-08-31 12:00:04FORECAST20213415663.9345.354.61500.00060.33060.210.5406FF31.93417.93248465.3659369495300.636201205409959133325245DRYM
2021-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20213415664.4844.6454.5600.00060.39060.240.6306FF32.48414.48248465.3659369495300.654906365805879133325245DRYM
2021-08-31 04:00:09FORECAST20213415664.544.6454.5700.00060.39060.240.6306FF32.5411.5248465.3659369495300.655579803411879133325245DRYM
2021-08-31 00:00:04FORECAST20213415669.2847.9358.605000.040.230.27FF37.28429.28248465.3659369495300.798830209827569143315150DRYMH
2021-08-30 20:00:04FORECAST20213415669.2847.558.39000.040.250.29FF37.28443.28248465.3659369495300.798830209827569143315150DRYMH
2021-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20213415667.2947.5957.4400.00060.17060.250.4206FF35.29436.29248465.3659369495300.743923948758039143325250DRYMH
2021-08-30 12:00:04FORECAST20213415654.145.1649.6300.00320.06320.240.3032FF22.1424.1248465.3659369495300.291065779042069123315220DRYL
2021-08-30 08:00:04FORECAST20213415646.0744.145.08500.0030.0730.230.303FF14.07406.07248465.3659369495300.0994289445271159113315217.5DRYL
2021-08-30 04:00:10FORECAST20213415646.0745.4145.7400.0030.0730.220.293FF14.07410.07248465.3659369495300.0994289445271159113315217.5DRYL