MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 5, 2021

[ Saturday, September 4, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, September 6, 2021 ]

DAY 340 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/06/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.50°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.599
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 406

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 247
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 55

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-06 04:00:05OBSERVATION20213405563.6000849.4000656.500070000.20.2FF31.60008405.60008247464.86134940078 00.5991949909724494 33315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 00:00:01FORECAST20213405550.7850.7850.7800.00110.00110.20.2011FF18.78392.78248465.3659369495300.198884698676649413215215DRYL
2021-09-05 12:00:01FORECAST20213405560.3449.454.8700.00450.00450.20.2045FF28.34402.34248465.3659369495300.488971739991819423315220DRYL
2021-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20213405560.7249.2654.9900.00780.00780.20.2078FF28.72402.72248465.3659369495300.50194006371659433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-05 04:00:06FORECAST20213405560.6750.3655.51500.00530.00530.20.2053FF28.67402.67248465.3659369495300.500233527095229433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20213405561.6850.325600.01190.01190.20.2119FF29.68390.68247464.8613494007800.534661995512419433215220DRYL
2021-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20213405561.5850.1655.8700.01220.02220.20.2222FF29.58403.58247464.8613494007800.531260573458829433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-04 16:00:01FORECAST20213405561.8850.7956.33500.00310.01310.20.2131FF29.88403.88247464.8613494007800.541457001342879433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20213405561.6749.6655.66500.00440.01440.20.2144FF29.67403.67247464.8613494007800.534321963105899433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20213405561.6351.2256.42500.00440.01440.20.2144FF29.63397.63247464.8613494007800.532961585362619433215220DRYL
2021-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20213405561.5650.9556.25500.0020.0120.20.212FF29.56397.56247464.8613494007800.530580007131499433215220DRYL
2021-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20213405560.95055.4500.00620.01620.20.2162FF28.9388.9247464.8613494007800.508083077558299433215220DRYL
2021-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20213405560.8550.7755.8100.00720.01720.20.2172FF28.85403.85247464.8613494007800.506376814857599433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20213405561.385055.6900.00610.01610.20.2161FF29.38405.38247464.8613494007800.524451127192939433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20213405561.0650.2155.63500.00730.01730.20.2173FF29.06405.06247464.8613494007800.513541970645849433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20213405558.4249.3853.900.01910.02910.20.2291FF26.42401.42247464.8613494007800.42390638034889423315220DRYL
2021-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20213405559.3149.5754.4400.0170.0270.20.227FF27.31399.31247464.8613494007800.453918476013739423315220DRYL
2021-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20213405561.3550.4455.89500.00260.01260.20.2126FF29.35403.35247464.8613494007800.523429045077999433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20213405563.1451.0857.1100.00410.01410.20.2141FF31.14416.14247464.8613494007800.583908429695859433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20213405563.7250.6257.1700.00110.01110.20.2111FF31.72416.72247464.8613494007800.603155622098329433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20213405564.3850.957.6400.00080.01080.20.2108FF32.38417.38247464.8613494007800.624753454337129433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20213405561.3751.1956.2800.00170.01170.20.2117FF29.37415.37247464.8613494007800.524110450697439433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-02 04:00:06FORECAST20213405564.9949.9457.465000.010.20.21FF32.99416.99247464.8613494007800.644374895584999433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20213405562.7749.3356.0500.00140.02140.20.2214FF30.77404.77247464.8613494007800.571520916114399433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20213405562.7748.6655.71500.00570.02570.20.2257FF30.77418.77247464.8613494007800.571520916114399433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20213405562.7749.6956.2300.00580.01580.20.2158FF30.77418.77247464.8613494007800.571520916114399433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20213405565.1149.4957.300.00890.02890.20.2289FF33.11421.11247464.8613494007800.648192124551729433315222.5DRYL
2021-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20213405560.9347.7854.35500.0030.1030.20.303FF28.93410.93247464.8613494007800.509106766190229433325245DRYM
2021-09-01 04:00:09FORECAST20213405560.9247.7954.35500.0030.1030.20.303FF28.92415.92247464.8613494007800.508765542977839433325245DRYM
2021-09-01 00:00:04FORECAST20213405558.5845.0451.8100.06640.13640.20.3364FF26.58407.58247464.8613494007800.429274566997879423325240DRYM
2021-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20213405557.3846.4851.9300.07060.12060.210.3306FF25.38418.38247464.8613494007800.3893990001059423325240DRYM
2021-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20213405557.3746.4951.9300.07060.12060.210.3306FF25.37417.37247464.8613494007800.389070930753729423325240DRYM
2021-08-31 12:00:04FORECAST20213405556.5245.5251.0200.06540.32540.210.5354FF24.52415.52247464.8613494007800.361496161631759423325240DRYM
2021-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20213405556.4845.3750.92500.06870.38870.240.6287FF24.48412.48247464.8613494007800.360214814871699423325240DRYM
2021-08-31 04:00:09FORECAST20213405556.3745.450.88500.06870.38870.240.6287FF24.37409.37247464.8613494007800.356699233530569423325240DRYM
2021-08-31 00:00:04FORECAST20213405560.6148.2954.4500.04220.04220.230.2722FF28.61421.61247464.8613494007800.498185680257059423315220DRYL
2021-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20213405560.548.3154.40500.04220.04220.250.2922FF28.5435.5247464.8613494007800.494431457477479423315220DRYL
2021-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20213405559.0848.6553.86500.08170.17170.250.4217FF27.08431.08247464.8613494007800.446130175609989423325240DRYM
2021-08-30 12:00:04FORECAST20213405560.1347.9954.0600.05790.05790.240.2979FF28.13432.13247464.8613494007800.481809157310439423315220DRYL
2021-08-30 08:00:04FORECAST20213405558.6946.4752.5800.06430.07430.230.3043FF26.69421.69247464.8613494007800.43297285934379423315220DRYL
2021-08-30 04:00:10FORECAST20213405558.6946.4752.5800.06430.07430.220.2943FF26.69425.69247464.8613494007800.43297285934379423315220DRYL
2021-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20213405554.0947.4150.7500.46790.46790.260.7279FF22.09412.09247464.8613494007800.286933155046699423325240DRYM
2021-08-29 20:00:03FORECAST20213405554.9447.2151.07500.2860.2860.230.516FF22.94434.94247464.8613494007800.312193958446079423325240DRYM
2021-08-29 16:00:11FORECAST20213405554.0948.8651.47500.1020.1020.220.322FF22.09433.09247464.8613494007800.286933155046699423325240DRYM
2021-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20213405561.0450.2255.6300.00120.00120.220.2212FF29.04447.04247464.8613494007800.512859726767579433315222.5DRYL
2021-08-29 08:00:04FORECAST20213405553.4751.7352.60000.210.21FF21.47429.47247464.8613494007800.269140230577989423315220DRYL
2021-08-29 04:00:08FORECAST20213405553.3252.4552.8850000.210.21FF21.32434.32247464.8613494007800.264920076504839423315220DRYL