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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 27, 2021

[ Sunday, September 26, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 28, 2021 ]

DAY 362 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/28/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.239
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 402

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 269
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 475.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 77

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 100.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-28 04:00:05OBSERVATION20213627746.1899432.8800239.5349801.081.673.675.34TF14.18994402.18994269475.53116862601 00.2394478798426590 143552100WETM
2021-09-28 00:00:01FORECAST20213627737.1937.1937.1900.0120.6023.674.272TF5.19393.19270475.9952878003100.0720967634221189014235252.5WETM
2021-09-27 12:00:02FORECAST20213627741.9535.5838.76500.33480.92483.674.5948TF9.95397.95270475.9952878003100.14405773258199014235252.5WETM
2021-09-27 08:00:02FORECAST20213627743.1736.9840.07500.56481.15483.674.8248TF11.17399.17270475.9952878003100.168446021896969014345280WETMH
2021-09-27 04:00:04FORECAST20213627745.9936.7441.36500.92391.51393.675.1839TF13.99401.99270475.9952878003100.2342944485123890143552100WETMH
2021-09-27 00:00:02FORECAST20213627748.3236.8142.56500.9590.9993.674.669TF16.32400.32269475.5311686260100.297982441891579024345290WETMH
2021-09-26 20:00:01FORECAST20213627748.8636.842.8300.98231.36233.675.0323TF16.86409.86269475.5311686260100.313794382136699024345290WETMH
2021-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST20213627747.837.942.8501.07821.45823.675.1282TF15.8408.8269475.5311686260100.283108503528549024345290WETMH
2021-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20213627747.7536.6742.2100.92841.30843.674.9784TF15.75408.75269475.5311686260100.281697281712119024345290WETMH
2021-09-26 08:00:02FORECAST20213627747.4936.7642.12500.88842.05843.675.7284TT15.49407.49269475.5311686260100.2744140420156590243552112.5WETH
2021-09-26 04:00:07FORECAST20213627747.7136.9142.3100.82322.06323.675.7332TT15.71408.71269475.5311686260100.2805707488926690243552112.5WETH
2021-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST20213627747.9237.0442.4800.951.643.675.31TF15.92392.92269475.5311686260100.2865091947949890242552100WETMH
2021-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20213627748.753742.87500.98541.56543.675.2354TF16.75408.75269475.5311686260100.3105442967535590243552112.5WETMH
2021-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST20213627748.3737.2742.8200.92691.50693.675.1769TF16.37407.37269475.5311686260100.2994311855887390243552112.5WETMH
2021-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST20213627747.5337.442.46501.1091.7293.675.399TF15.53407.53269475.5311686260100.2755284724332290243552112.5WETMH
2021-09-25 08:00:03FORECAST20213627746.8136.6441.72500.95641.48643.675.1564TF14.81400.81269475.5311686260100.255815643761279024345290WETMH
2021-09-25 04:00:07FORECAST2021362774736.9941.99500.95041.49043.675.1604TF15403269475.5311686260100.26094532743179024345290WETMH
2021-09-25 00:00:02FORECAST20213627746.2936.9741.6300.90931.53933.675.2093TF14.29391.29269475.5311686260100.242049934139319014255287.5WETMH
2021-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20213627746.7538.3542.5500.89181.68183.675.3518TF14.75404.75269475.5311686260100.2542067332178690243552112.5WETMH
2021-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST20213627746.7436.8941.81500.93881.86883.675.5388TF14.74402.74269475.5311686260100.2539390975419790243552112.5WETMH
2021-09-24 12:00:03FORECAST20213627747.135.9641.5300.94861.87863.675.5486TF15.1403.1269475.5311686260100.2636662230184190243552112.5WETMH
2021-09-24 08:00:03FORECAST2021362774635.9540.97501.11351.88353.675.5535TF14405269475.5311686260100.234550732803990143552100WETMH
2021-09-24 04:00:07FORECAST20213627746.1737.2641.71501.26412.03413.675.7041TF14.17407.17269475.5311686260100.2389311698328890143552100WETMH
2021-09-24 00:00:03FORECAST20213627748.5436.9942.76500.83421.63423.675.3042TF16.54405.54269475.5311686260100.3043806063016790243552112.5WETMH
2021-09-23 20:00:03FORECAST20213627748.1638.7543.45500.78851.41853.685.0985TF16.16414.16269475.5311686260100.293368056267789024345290WETMH
2021-09-23 16:00:02FORECAST20213627747.3337.1642.24500.96261.34263.685.0226TF15.33413.33269475.5311686260100.269978665387639024345290WETMH
2021-09-23 12:00:03FORECAST20213627748.0340.0544.0401.05131.28133.684.9613TF16.03408.03269475.5311686260100.289643401025869024345290WETMH
2021-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20213627748.8140.8744.8401.04471.25473.674.9247TF16.81410.81269475.5311686260100.312315260322469024345290WETMH
2021-09-23 04:00:06FORECAST20213627748.8240.8844.8501.04471.17473.674.8447TF16.82414.82269475.5311686260100.312610844044699024345290WETMH
2021-09-23 00:00:03FORECAST20213627748.1641.1644.6600.85140.87143.64.4714TF16.16408.16269475.5311686260100.293368056267789024335267.5WETMH
2021-09-22 20:00:02FORECAST20213627748.641.3444.9700.72670.76673.644.4067TF16.6415.6269475.5311686260100.306136107381069024335267.5WETMH
2021-09-22 16:00:03FORECAST20213627748.5942.0345.3100.66750.70753.644.3475TF16.59414.59269475.5311686260100.305843213324189024335267.5WETMH
2021-09-22 12:00:04FORECAST20213627750.5739.7945.1800.43680.47683.644.1168TF18.57415.57269475.5311686260100.366044754952919024325245WETMH
2021-09-22 08:00:04FORECAST20213627751.4941.9846.73500.3860.4163.654.066TF19.49412.49269475.5311686260100.395299184274179024325245WETMH
2021-09-22 04:00:09FORECAST20213627751.454246.72500.3860.4163.654.066TF19.45414.45269475.5311686260100.3940135566139024325245WETMH
2021-09-22 00:00:04FORECAST20213627745.336.9341.11501.48751.53753.645.1775TF13.3395.3269475.5311686260100.216989092520059014255287.5WETMH
2021-09-21 20:00:04FORECAST20213627745.3236.8641.0901.48751.53753.675.2075TF13.32410.32269475.5311686260100.2174800881662390143552100WETMH
2021-09-21 16:00:03FORECAST20213627744.434.9439.6701.28381.29383.644.9338TF12.4410.4269475.5311686260100.195564063649449014345280WETM
2021-09-21 12:00:03FORECAST20213627760.9845.353.1400.22720.27723.653.9272TF28.98427.98269475.5311686260100.700839701088059044325255DRYH
2021-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20213627760.6344.152.36500.22840.22843.643.8684TF28.63428.63269475.5311686260100.690614511078619034325250DRYMH
2021-09-21 04:00:07FORECAST20213627761.1744.1452.65500.22840.22843.643.8684TF29.17429.17269475.5311686260100.706325559945879044325255DRYH
2021-09-21 00:00:03FORECAST20213627757.0645.5751.31500.14510.15513.623.7751TF25.06426.06269475.5311686260100.57907177496319034325250DRYMH
2021-09-20 20:00:04FORECAST20213627763.2946.8855.08500.00670.00673.613.6167FF31.29444.29269475.5311686260100.764148572199179044315227.5DRYL
2021-09-20 16:00:02FORECAST20213627763.3646.6154.98500.00670.00673.633.6367FF31.36441.36269475.5311686260100.765944798072719044315227.5DRYL
2021-09-20 12:00:04FORECAST20213627758.9846.9452.960003.623.62FF26.98445.98269475.5311686260100.640511352754819034315225DRYL
2021-09-20 08:00:04FORECAST20213627747.3744.6646.0150003.63.6FF15.37419.37269475.5311686260100.271084142122699024315222.5DRYL
2021-09-20 04:00:10FORECAST20213627747.3646.2546.8050003.63.6FF15.36430.36269475.5311686260100.270807561686649024315222.5DRYL