Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 21, 2021

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DAY 356 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/22/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.920 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 38 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 439 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.71 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.89 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.60 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 263 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.71 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 71 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 4 D2: 3 D3: 3 D4: 5 D5: 1 HSdry: 180.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-22 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	356	71	70.19996	45.84002	58.01999	0	0	0.71	2.89	3.6	T	F	38.19996	439.19996	263	472.70911005348	0	0.91972316914379	93	5	4	3	3	5	1	180	DRY	VH
2021-09-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	50.95	50.95	50.95	0	0	0.71	2.89	3.6	T	F	18.95	419.95	264	473.18393270088	0	0.40463139005445	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-21 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.33	52.29	59.81	0	0.0061	0.7161	2.89	3.6061	T	F	35.33	436.33	264	473.18393270088	0	0.87650857157584	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-21 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.33	46.8	57.065	0	0	0.71	2.89	3.6	T	F	35.33	436.33	264	473.18393270088	0	0.87650857157584	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	356	71	66.46	46.32	56.39	0	0	0.71	2.89	3.6	T	F	34.46	435.46	264	473.18393270088	0	0.86066962176571	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.82	46.46	57.14	0	0	0.7	2.89	3.59	T	F	35.82	432.82	263	472.70911005348	0	0.88485406306246	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.69	46.7	57.195	0	0	0.7	2.89	3.59	T	F	35.69	440.69	263	472.70911005348	0	0.88267994833495	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 16:00:01	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.44	46.58	57.01	0	0	0.7	2.89	3.59	T	F	35.44	440.44	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87841785416659	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.14	46.08	56.61	0	0	0.7	2.89	3.59	T	F	35.14	440.14	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87316160639487	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.76	46.83	57.295	0	0	0.7	2.89	3.59	T	F	35.76	435.76	263	472.70911005348	0	0.88385420005147	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.4	45.99	56.695	0	0	0.7	2.89	3.59	T	F	35.4	440.4	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87772597701845	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.44	46.49	56.965	0	0	0.01	2.89	2.9	F	F	35.44	438.44	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87841785416659	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2021-09-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.44	46.45	56.945	0	0	0.26	2.89	3.15	F	F	35.44	446.44	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87841785416659	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.55	46.6	57.075	0	0	0.26	2.89	3.15	F	F	35.55	446.55	263	472.70911005348	0	0.88030635668431	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.44	46.98	57.21	0	0	0.28	2.89	3.17	F	F	35.44	446.44	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87841785416659	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.42	45.98	56.7	0	0	0.32	2.89	3.21	F	F	35.42	446.42	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87807225924732	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-19 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.56	45.9	56.73	0	0	0.36	2.89	3.25	F	F	35.56	446.56	263	472.70911005348	0	0.88047701040511	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	66.88	45.98	56.43	0	0	0.66	0.92	1.58	F	F	34.88	434.88	263	472.70911005348	0	0.86848030245015	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	68.84	46.13	57.485	0	0	0.67	1.69	2.36	F	F	36.84	443.84	263	472.70911005348	0	0.9009260509946	93	5	4	3	3	5	1	180	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	63.38	46.31	54.845	0	0	0.72	1.69	2.41	F	F	31.38	437.38	263	472.70911005348	0	0.79393354595525	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	64.62	45.81	55.215	0	0	0.84	1.69	2.53	F	F	32.62	439.62	263	472.70911005348	0	0.82279911568015	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	64.5	45.76	55.13	0	0	0.83	1.66	2.49	F	F	32.5	434.5	263	472.70911005348	0	0.82012247177242	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.32	44.62	55.97	0	0	0.84	1.92	2.76	F	F	35.32	438.32	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87633396798009	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.52	43.88	55.7	0	0	0.83	2.19	3.02	F	F	35.52	437.52	263	472.70911005348	0	0.8797933679382	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.38	42.74	55.06	0	0	0.8	2.5	3.3	F	F	35.38	445.38	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87737900712618	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	67.24	42.46	54.85	0	0	0.83	2.62	3.45	T	F	35.24	445.24	263	472.70911005348	0	0.87493093427642	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	64.09	42.7	53.395	0	0	0.79	2.38	3.17	F	F	32.09	437.09	263	472.70911005348	0	0.81078749847584	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	66.5	42.86	54.68	0	0	0.72	2.43	3.15	F	F	34.5	445.5	263	472.70911005348	0	0.86142677410091	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	356	71	66.51	42.86	54.685	0	0	0.76	2.29	3.05	F	F	34.51	447.51	263	472.70911005348	0	0.86161562459523	93	5	4	3	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	65.18	41.77	53.475	0	0	0.71	2.07	2.78	F	F	33.18	436.18	263	472.70911005348	0	0.83495591157733	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	64.71	40.83	52.77	0	0	1.01	2.37	3.38	T	F	32.71	442.71	263	472.70911005348	0	0.8247900400398	93	4	4	3	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	64.7	42.63	53.665	0	0	1.01	2.69	3.7	T	F	32.7	442.7	263	472.70911005348	0	0.82456952772289	93	4	4	3	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	65.88	41.88	53.88	0	0	1.02	2.65	3.67	T	F	33.88	442.88	263	472.70911005348	0	0.84937542116817	93	5	4	3	4	5	2	120	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	65.75	43.37	54.56	0	0	0.94	2.51	3.45	T	F	33.75	434.75	263	472.70911005348	0	0.84676279847849	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	356	71	65.75	43.39	54.57	0	0	0.76	2.54	3.3	F	F	33.75	440.75	263	472.70911005348	0	0.84676279847849	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	61.73	39.71	50.72	0	0	0.51	2.86	3.37	F	F	29.73	425.73	263	472.70911005348	0	0.75149645041453	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	356	71	61.76	39.71	50.735	0	0	0.49	2.81	3.3	F	F	29.76	441.76	263	472.70911005348	0	0.75230739410214	93	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2021-09-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	62.1	41.44	51.77	0	0	0.39	2.52	2.91	F	F	30.1	443.1	263	472.70911005348	0	0.76139864965749	93	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2021-09-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	61.78	39.2	50.49	0	0	0.52	2.36	2.88	F	F	29.78	439.78	263	472.70911005348	0	0.75284723824587	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	61.7	39.12	50.41	0	0	0.79	2.59	3.38	T	F	29.7	437.7	263	472.70911005348	0	0.75068409629445	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	356	71	60.41	38.18	49.295	0	0	0.68	2.67	3.35	F	F	28.41	436.41	263	472.70911005348	0	0.71446282616052	93	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	54.5	39.35	46.925	0	0.0304	0.9104	2.27	3.1804	F	F	22.5	417.5	263	472.70911005348	0	0.52462902622852	93	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	356	71	54.41	40.17	47.29	0	0.0305	0.8205	2.56	3.3805	T	F	22.41	438.41	263	472.70911005348	0	0.52156808491375	93	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	356	71	54.68	40.16	47.42	0	0.0305	0.7905	2.54	3.3305	F	F	22.68	437.68	263	472.70911005348	0	0.5307463702747	93	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	356	71	44.5	38.5	41.5	0	0.0068	0.5768	2.27	2.8468	F	F	12.5	423.5	263	472.70911005348	0	0.21411373537746	93	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	356	71	42.17	40.68	41.425	0	0.0068	0.5368	2.21	2.7468	F	F	10.17	420.17	263	472.70911005348	0	0.16076953806025	93	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	356	71	41.66	41.03	41.345	0	0.0068	0.5368	2.21	2.7468	F	F	9.66	418.66	263	472.70911005348	0	0.15036113140785	93	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H