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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 17, 2021

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DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 48.53°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 41.70°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 45.11°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.278 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 437 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.64 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.64 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.25 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.89 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 259 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 67.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-18 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2021	352	67	48.52994	41.70002	45.11498	0.63999999999999	0.63999999999999	0.25	0.88999999999999	F	F	16.52994	436.52994	259	470.791672921	0.27801677174279	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	47.69	47.69	47.69	0.0819	0.0819	0.25	0.3319	F	F	15.69	435.69	260	471.27376800312	0.25363902701577	92	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-09-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.43	44.13	46.78	0.4664	0.4664	0.25	0.7164	F	F	17.43	437.43	260	471.27376800312	0.30534534976747	92	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-09-17 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.83	44.22	47.525	0.466	0.466	0.25	0.716	F	F	18.83	438.83	260	471.27376800312	0.35004720259757	92	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-09-17 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.58	44.3	47.44	0.3212	0.3212	0.25	0.5712	F	F	18.58	438.58	260	471.27376800312	0.34188767744051	92	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-09-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.56	44.42	47.49	0.3119	0.3119	0.25	0.5619	F	F	18.56	429.56	259	470.791672921	0.34123803174027	92	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-09-16 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.48	42.7	46.59	0.5767	0.5767	0.25	0.8267	F	F	18.48	440.48	259	470.791672921	0.33864416497157	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.71	43.6	47.155	0.8493	0.8493	0.25	1.0993	F	F	18.71	440.71	259	470.791672921	0.34612171138621	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	51.09	44.23	47.66	0.8129	0.8129	0.25	1.0629	F	F	19.09	441.09	259	470.791672921	0.35860709421536	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.01	42.93	45.97	0.6392	0.6392	0.25	0.8892	F	F	17.01	439.01	259	470.791672921	0.29244451173488	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.54	43.63	47.085	0.6355	0.6355	0.25	0.8855	F	F	18.54	438.54	259	470.791672921	0.34058885595651	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.47	43.6	46.535	0.6355	0.6355	0.25	0.8855	F	F	17.47	428.47	259	470.791672921	0.30658705007198	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.07	43.66	46.865	0.7272	0.7272	0.25	0.9772	F	F	18.07	444.07	259	470.791672921	0.32547257622829	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.04	43.14	46.59	0.7614	0.7614	0.25	1.0114	F	F	18.04	444.04	259	470.791672921	0.32451704941567	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.66	42.71	46.185	0.9203	0.9203	0.25	1.1703	F	F	17.66	439.66	259	470.791672921	0.31251527365462	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.8	42.36	46.08	1.0369	1.0469	0.25	1.2969	F	F	17.8	442.8	259	470.791672921	0.31691478523455	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.93	42.25	46.09	1.2878	1.3078	0.25	1.5578	F	F	17.93	444.93	259	470.791672921	0.3210233557169	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	48.52	42.37	45.445	1.1077	1.1377	0.22	1.3577	F	F	16.52	433.52	259	470.791672921	0.27772173824019	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	50.83	42.39	46.61	1.346	1.376	0.24	1.616	F	F	18.83	447.83	259	470.791672921	0.35004720259757	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	51.69	41.65	46.67	1.2733	1.2933	0.24	1.5333	F	F	19.69	448.69	259	470.791672921	0.37862725746606	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	47.65	41.19	44.42	1.2879	1.3179	0.24	1.5579	F	F	15.65	445.65	259	470.791672921	0.25250671425846	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	48.17	39.86	44.015	1.3338	1.3638	0.26	1.6238	F	F	16.17	444.17	259	470.791672921	0.26743171595472	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	352	67	44.72	39.1	41.91	1.2116	1.2816	0.26	1.5416	F	F	12.72	437.72	259	470.791672921	0.17722406968408	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	46.86	38.76	42.81	1.1736	1.2436	0.26	1.5036	F	F	14.86	439.86	259	470.791672921	0.23069918484301	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	46.99	38.82	42.905	1.0728	1.1328	0.27	1.4028	F	F	14.99	455.99	259	470.791672921	0.23421394812473	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	47.7	38.75	43.225	1.2572	1.3272	0.28	1.6072	F	F	15.7	451.7	259	470.791672921	0.25392252073522	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	42.21	39.74	40.975	1.5293	1.5993	0.28	1.8793	F	F	10.21	450.21	259	470.791672921	0.12542133346568	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	46.3	39.46	42.88	1.4495	1.5195	0.25	1.7695	F	F	14.3	448.3	259	470.791672921	0.2158997261398	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	352	67	46.29	39.46	42.875	1.4495	1.5095	0.25	1.7595	F	F	14.29	454.29	259	470.791672921	0.21564053961694	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	45.65	39.53	42.59	1.3689	2.2889	0.26	2.5489	F	F	13.65	441.65	259	470.791672921	0.19943046891352	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2021-09-12 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	41.33	37.66	39.495	1.3348	1.3648	0.27	1.6348	F	F	9.33	453.33	259	470.791672921	0.11004599920488	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	47.42	37.67	42.545	1.1981	1.2581	0.28	1.5381	F	F	15.42	447.42	259	470.791672921	0.2460478767709	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	48.66	37.87	43.265	0.8585	0.9185	0.26	1.1785	F	F	16.66	453.66	259	470.791672921	0.28189115133136	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	48.11	38.03	43.07	0.7516	0.7916	0.27	1.0616	F	F	16.11	450.11	259	470.791672921	0.26568719246532	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-12 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	352	67	48.78	38.04	43.41	0.7516	0.7916	0.29	1.0816	F	F	16.78	456.78	259	470.791672921	0.28548874204672	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	44.6	37.95	41.275	1.0486	1.1986	0.11	1.3086	F	F	12.6	443.6	259	470.791672921	0.17447672169172	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	42.58	37.34	39.96	0.9725	1.1025	0.08	1.1825	F	F	10.58	452.58	259	470.791672921	0.13231274066912	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	42.54	37.42	39.98	0.9725	1.1025	0.22	1.3225	F	F	10.54	452.54	259	470.791672921	0.13155542121188	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	352	67	43.25	38.73	40.99	1.324	1.354	0.26	1.614	F	F	11.25	449.25	259	470.791672921	0.14544399109845	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	46.95	39.11	43.03	1.3211	1.3511	0.11	1.4611	F	F	14.95	449.95	259	470.791672921	0.23312934131004	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-11 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	352	67	46.96	39.1	43.03	1.3211	1.3511	0.11	1.4611	F	F	14.96	458.96	259	470.791672921	0.23340023174218	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.85	35.23	42.54	0.4911	0.5011	0.02	0.5211	F	F	17.85	459.85	259	470.791672921	0.31849237242599	92	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-09-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.94	32.81	41.375	0.2649	0.2849	0.1	0.3849	F	F	17.94	472.94	259	470.791672921	0.32134031683196	92	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-09-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	352	67	49.96	32.84	41.4	0.005	0.025	0.09	0.115	F	F	17.96	470.96	259	470.791672921	0.32197462906552	92	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-09-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	43.78	36.96	40.37	0.7025	0.7425	0.11	0.8525	F	F	11.78	464.78	259	470.791672921	0.15643097897523	92	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	352	67	38.74	36.68	37.71	0.6493	0.6893	0.14	0.8293	F	F	6.74	448.74	259	470.791672921	0.072705218927801	92	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-10 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	352	67	38.71	37.8	38.255	0.4089	0.4489	0.13	0.5789	F	F	6.71	454.71	259	470.791672921	0.072338023104822	92	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	DRY	M