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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 16, 2021

[ Wednesday, September 15, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, September 17, 2021 ]

DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/17/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.440
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 435

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 258
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-17 04:00:06OBSERVATION20213516654.8099630.3299642.56996000.030.220.25FF22.80996434.80996258470.30774239242 00.4404138232834393 23315220DRYL
2021-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20213516645.6845.6845.68000.030.220.25FF13.68425.68259470.79167292100.178498710618989313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20213516656.8445.5851.21000.030.220.25FF24.84436.84259470.79167292100.508587389434539333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-16 08:00:01FORECAST20213516656.8934.4745.68000.030.220.25FF24.89436.89259470.79167292100.510271552293979333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-16 04:00:08FORECAST20213516654.7434.8644.800.00090.03090.220.2509FF22.74434.74259470.79167292100.438084068041279323315220DRYL
2021-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20213516656.7434.5645.6500.00010.03010.220.2501FF24.74425.74258470.3077423924200.505218634430199333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-15 20:00:01FORECAST20213516656.5534.4645.505000.030.220.25FF24.55440.55258470.3077423924200.498817173106759323315220DRYL
2021-09-15 16:00:01FORECAST20213516656.5433.9745.255000.030.220.25FF24.54440.54258470.3077423924200.498480248107539323315220DRYL
2021-09-15 12:00:03FORECAST20213516653.0135.1344.07000.030.220.25FF21.01437.01258470.3077423924200.381350311485899323315220DRYL
2021-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20213516656.4635.846.13000.040.220.26FF24.46440.46258470.3077423924200.495784907322879323315220DRYL
2021-09-15 04:00:09FORECAST20213516657.0535.3646.205000.050.220.27FF25.05442.05258470.3077423924200.515659495054259333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20213516656.8335.246.015000.030.220.25FF24.83431.83258470.3077423924200.508250537529719333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20213516656.5635.0945.825000.050.220.27FF24.56443.56258470.3077423924200.499154098949649333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-14 16:00:03FORECAST20213516656.3435.0445.69000.040.220.26FF24.34444.34258470.3077423924200.491742295346379323315220DRYL
2021-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20213516656.7135.1345.92000.050.220.27FF24.71444.71258470.3077423924200.504207924418259333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20213516656.2735.6445.955000.070.220.29FF24.27443.27258470.3077423924200.489384470025859323315220DRYL
2021-09-14 04:00:05FORECAST20213516655.533545.265000.110.220.33FF23.53439.53258470.3077423924200.464497613081129323325240DRYM
2021-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20213516656.6635.6746.165000.110.220.33FF24.66439.66258470.3077423924200.502523350910479333325245DRYM
2021-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20213516659.1337.1748.15000.110.220.33FF27.13456.13258470.3077423924200.585088752675449333325245DRYM
2021-09-13 16:00:04FORECAST20213516657.4237.3347.375000.130.220.35FF25.42451.42258470.3077423924200.528106523533949333325245DRYM
2021-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20213516657.137.647.35000.130.220.35FF25.1455.1258470.3077423924200.51734268725249333325245DRYM
2021-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20213516652.8637.0744.965000.10.220.32FF20.86448.86258470.3077423924200.376530917670559323325240DRYM
2021-09-13 04:00:06FORECAST20213516657.4935.346.395000.090.220.31FF25.49455.49258470.3077423924200.530458652528949333315222.5DRYL
2021-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20213516656.2736.2246.245000.950.231.18FF24.27443.27258470.3077423924200.489384470025859323335260DRYH
2021-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20213516655.3935.0945.24000.040.260.3FF23.39459.39258470.3077423924200.459801909371439323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20213516650.4533.0441.745000.080.260.34FF18.45447.45258470.3077423924200.302177628855029323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20213516655.9334.7145.3200.00020.07020.250.3202FF23.93451.93258470.3077423924200.477938956614589323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 08:00:03FORECAST20213516648.9434.741.8200.00020.05020.260.3102FF16.94448.94258470.3077423924200.259240705644889323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 04:00:06FORECAST20213516655.9835.8145.895000.070.260.33FF23.98454.98258470.3077423924200.479621206414229323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20213516655.4234.9745.19500.110.20.060.26FF23.42446.42258470.3077423924200.460807682276599323325240DRYM
2021-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20213516655.8134.0444.92500.11070.15070.060.2107FF23.81456.81258470.3077423924200.473903217348019323325240DRYM
2021-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20213516655.7934.0444.91500.11070.31070.040.3507FF23.79456.79258470.3077423924200.473230843207819323325240DRYM
2021-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20213516653.0335.6944.36000.250.040.29FF21.03453.03258470.3077423924200.381994307682749323325240DRYM
2021-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20213516653.3136.5844.945000.090.050.14FF21.31450.31258470.3077423924200.391043780614549323315220DRYL
2021-09-11 04:00:10FORECAST20213516653.3136.5844.945000.090.050.14FF21.31459.31258470.3077423924200.391043780614549323315220DRYL
2021-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20213516652.7236.2344.475000.010.020.03FF20.72456.72258470.3077423924200.372050091552589323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20213516651.6533.7942.72000.020.10.12FF19.65469.65258470.3077423924200.338413427223779323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20213516651.4833.7542.615000.020.090.11FF19.48468.48258470.3077423924200.333177891582179323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 12:00:04FORECAST20213516653.1235.9344.52500.0220.0520.10.152FF21.12468.12258470.3077423924200.384896307792489323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 08:00:04FORECAST20213516652.3336.9444.63500.02210.06210.120.1821FF20.33457.33258470.3077423924200.359660505631699323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 04:00:08FORECAST20213516652.3136.6944.500.02210.06210.110.1721FF20.31463.31258470.3077423924200.359028970892549323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 00:00:04FORECAST20213516650.0935.4442.76500.40130.63130.050.6813FF18.09463.09258470.3077423924200.291655888757759323335260DRYH
2021-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20213516650.5231.9941.25500.04080.29080.050.3408FF18.52476.52258470.3077423924200.304243129001619323325240DRYM
2021-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20213516649.4131.9240.66500.02080.27080.030.3008FF17.41476.41258470.3077423924200.272261090065679323325240DRYM
2021-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20213516646.0236.0541.03500.00290.06290.070.1329FF14.02485.02258470.3077423924200.186096908001429313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-09 08:00:04FORECAST20213516635.1634.4534.805000.080.060.14FF3.16463.16258470.3077423924200.035027883374319313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-09 04:00:07FORECAST20213516635.2934.935.095000.080.070.15FF3.29462.29258470.3077423924200.0358890821998269313315217.5DRYL