MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 15, 2021

[ Tuesday, September 14, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 16, 2021 ]

DAY 350 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.205
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 446

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 257
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-16 04:00:07OBSERVATION20213506547.7399234.9899841.36495000.030.220.25FF15.73992445.73992257469.82196942943 00.204931188173993 13315217.5DRYL
2021-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20213506536.7136.7136.7100.00020.03020.220.2502FF4.71434.71258470.3077423924200.0387446008235659313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20213506552.3236.7344.52500.00470.03470.220.2547FF20.32450.32258470.3077423924200.332157648916699323315220DRYL
2021-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20213506551.8636.9744.41500.00580.03580.220.2558FF19.86449.86258470.3077423924200.31805476904229323315220DRYL
2021-09-15 04:00:08FORECAST20213506553.1337.1445.13500.02290.05290.220.2729FF21.13451.13258470.3077423924200.357567197201289323315220DRYL
2021-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20213506552.6337.0944.8600.02580.02580.220.2458FF20.63440.63257469.8219694294300.341799159600249323315220DRYL
2021-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20213506552.4737.1644.81500.03180.05180.220.2718FF20.47453.47257469.8219694294300.336809525083699323315220DRYL
2021-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20213506552.9237.6645.2900.02350.04350.220.2635FF20.92453.92257469.8219694294300.350913125168189323315220DRYL
2021-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20213506552.5337.2744.900.02690.04690.220.2669FF20.53453.53257469.8219694294300.338677334279679323315220DRYL
2021-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20213506552.1136.6744.3900.030.070.220.29FF20.11453.11257469.8219694294300.325688341238219323315220DRYL
2021-09-14 04:00:05FORECAST20213506551.7736.5344.1500.06840.10840.220.3284FF19.77449.77257469.8219694294300.315325262330049323325240DRYM
2021-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20213506552.4536.5344.4900.07410.11410.220.3341FF20.45449.45257469.8219694294300.33618781196479323325240DRYM
2021-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20213506552.4537.6145.0300.05750.10750.220.3275FF20.45463.45257469.8219694294300.33618781196479323325240DRYM
2021-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20213506548.7137.9443.32500.06570.12570.220.3457FF16.71459.71257469.8219694294300.229200327474949313325235DRYL
2021-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20213506553.1337.9645.54500.06820.12820.220.3482FF21.13464.13257469.8219694294300.357567197201289323325240DRYM
2021-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20213506553.2137.5845.39500.06730.09730.220.3173FF21.21462.21257469.8219694294300.360113640050269323325240DRYM
2021-09-13 04:00:06FORECAST20213506553.537.945.700.06480.09480.220.3148FF21.5463.5257469.8219694294300.369395868977379323325240DRYM
2021-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20213506553.5638.6646.1100.92260.96260.221.1826FF21.56452.56257469.8219694294300.371326077473279323335260DRYH
2021-09-12 20:00:03FORECAST20213506555.1839.0447.1100.02650.04650.250.2965FF23.18470.18257469.8219694294300.424514207976749323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20213506548.923843.4600.05860.08860.250.3386FF16.92462.92257469.8219694294300.234658200494339313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20213506548.4435.4741.95500.06230.07230.250.3223FF16.44462.44257469.8219694294300.222288673429769313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20213506553.1535.4744.3100.0430.0530.260.313FF21.15466.15257469.8219694294300.358203219229479323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 04:00:06FORECAST20213506551.0436.0643.5500.04170.08170.250.3317FF19.04465.04257469.8219694294300.29356716048799323315220DRYL
2021-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20213506552.7635.8644.3100.03660.09660.050.1466FF20.76456.76257469.8219694294300.345873724291229323325240DRYM
2021-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20213506552.4236.0344.22500.02050.05050.050.1005FF20.42467.42257469.8219694294300.335256081703849323315220DRYL
2021-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20213506552.4737.4944.9800.0180.1980.040.238FF20.47467.47257469.8219694294300.336809525083699323325240DRYM
2021-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20213506551.5336.9144.2200.02670.24670.040.2867FF19.53465.53257469.8219694294300.308095964171989323325240DRYM
2021-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20213506546.8637.6742.26500.02670.08670.050.1367FF14.86462.86257469.8219694294300.184295253303559313315217.5DRYL
2021-09-11 04:00:09FORECAST20213506551.5237.6744.59500.02670.08670.050.1367FF19.52471.52257469.8219694294300.307796325842179323315220DRYL
2021-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20213506552.1736.9244.54500.00990.00990.020.0299FF20.17470.17257469.8219694294300.327531476596769323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20213506553.1136.6544.8800.0150.0150.10.115FF21.11484.11257469.8219694294300.356931570296529323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20213506552.2236.6344.42500.01530.01530.090.1053FF20.22483.22257469.8219694294300.32907064030519323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 12:00:04FORECAST20213506551.2936.3243.80500.02350.03350.10.1335FF19.29481.29257469.8219694294300.300940301186869323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 08:00:04FORECAST20213506552.5438.1845.3600.02160.04160.120.1616FF20.54470.54257469.8219694294300.338989023212089323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 04:00:08FORECAST20213506552.6638.1445.400.02160.04160.110.1516FF20.66476.66257469.8219694294300.342737831465779323315220DRYL
2021-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20213506547.5935.6941.6400.22640.22640.050.2764FF15.59478.59257469.8219694294300.20132149725789313325235DRYL
2021-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20213506545.3233.2539.28500.25360.25360.050.3036FF13.32492.32257469.8219694294300.15141714430399313325235DRYL
2021-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20213506545.2932.9639.12500.25360.25360.030.2836FF13.29493.29257469.8219694294300.150817908253869313325235DRYL
2021-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20213506555.8438.5547.19500.04680.06680.060.1268FF23.84504.84257469.8219694294300.44664499800439323415222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 08:00:04FORECAST20213506551.3536.243.77500.06550.08550.050.1355FF19.35494.35257469.8219694294300.302722191721089323315220DRYL
2021-09-09 04:00:07FORECAST20213506550.2536.1943.2200.06550.08550.060.1455FF18.25493.25257469.8219694294300.27083527827249323315220DRYL
2021-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20213506565.5246.9956.2550000.050.05FF33.52505.52257469.8219694294300.755023745339999343415227.5DRYL
2021-09-08 20:00:03FORECAST20213506563.8246.2855.0500.0040.0040.020.024FF31.82518.82257469.8219694294300.707318202677099343415227.5DRYL
2021-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20213506563.8446.2855.0600.00020.00020.030.0302FF31.84521.84257469.8219694294300.707903605767659343415227.5DRYL
2021-09-08 12:00:04FORECAST20213506550.2544.5847.41500.15630.15630.020.1763FF18.25503.25257469.8219694294300.27083527827249323425245DRYM
2021-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20213506548.0842.0445.0600.13110.13110.010.1411FF16.08495.08257469.8219694294300.213260465987799313325235DRYL
2021-09-08 04:00:10FORECAST20213506548.0745.1146.5900.06690.06690.020.0869FF16.07501.07257469.8219694294300.213012767359399313415220DRYL