MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 13, 2021

[ Sunday, September 12, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 14, 2021 ]

DAY 348 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/14/2021 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.258
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 447

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 255
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-14 04:00:04OBSERVATION20213486351.6599637.8199444.73995000.190.050.24FF19.65996446.65996255468.84486811521 00.2575502230377997 23325240DRYM
2021-09-14 00:00:01FORECAST20213486346.7446.7446.74000.190.050.24FF14.74441.74256469.3343470174500.130140523561929713325235DRYL
2021-09-13 12:00:01FORECAST20213486359.5944.8852.235000.190.050.24FF27.59454.59256469.3343470174500.545378581003349733325245DRYM
2021-09-13 08:00:01FORECAST20213486359.4740.549.98500.00010.19010.050.2401FF27.47454.47256469.3343470174500.540787979561969733325245DRYM
2021-09-13 04:00:06FORECAST20213486359.3741.0450.20500.00290.19290.050.2429FF27.37454.37256469.3343470174500.536958293205669733325245DRYM
2021-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20213486358.1939.5948.8900.01210.20210.050.2521FF26.19443.19255468.8448681152100.491605733563929723325240DRYM
2021-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20213486358.8839.3749.12500.01040.23040.050.2804FF26.88458.88255468.8448681152100.518149932921329733325245DRYM
2021-09-12 16:00:01FORECAST20213486358.9441.350.1200.0050.2250.050.275FF26.94458.94255468.8448681152100.520456016525599733325245DRYM
2021-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20213486359.1642.7150.93500.00380.22380.050.2738FF27.16459.16255468.8448681152100.528905214823859733325245DRYM
2021-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20213486359.1642.7450.95000.230.050.28FF27.16458.16255468.8448681152100.528905214823859733325245DRYM
2021-09-12 04:00:06FORECAST20213486358.6142.6550.6300.00620.22620.050.2762FF26.61458.61255468.8448681152100.507766153200819733325245DRYM
2021-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20213486359.1342.3950.7600.00930.02930.050.0793FF27.13449.13255468.8448681152100.527753732038169733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20213486358.8742.8150.8400.00660.02660.050.0766FF26.87458.87255468.8448681152100.517765524513629733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20213486359.5243.1351.32500.00030.01030.050.0603FF27.52459.52255468.8448681152100.542701426796079733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20213486359.6342.8651.245000.010.050.06FF27.63459.63255468.8448681152100.546907466404579733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20213486359.9342.8351.38000.020.050.07FF27.93463.93255468.8448681152100.558350409342449733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-11 04:00:09FORECAST20213486360.3342.8851.605000.020.050.07FF28.33464.33255468.8448681152100.573530622854759733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20213486360.7442.3851.56000.020.020.04FF28.74461.74255468.8448681152100.588977912548419733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20213486362.8342.1352.48000.020.10.12FF30.83474.83255468.8448681152100.665131610393239733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20213486362.1443.1452.64000.010.10.11FF30.14475.14255468.8448681152100.640559268650389733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20213486362.4541.4751.96000.020.10.12FF30.45474.45255468.8448681152100.651678330456339733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20213486357.5642.9350.245000.030.110.14FF25.56463.56255468.8448681152100.467399188149929723315220DRYL
2021-09-10 04:00:08FORECAST20213486359.9141.8550.88000.020.110.13FF27.91469.91255468.8448681152100.557588951690029733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20213486360.7642.7551.7550000.070.07FF28.76475.76255468.8448681152100.589728125979429733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20213486361.5342.7552.14000.010.060.07FF29.53491.53255468.8448681152100.618337016767019733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20213486361.5743.6852.6250000.050.05FF29.57492.57255468.8448681152100.619807142075559733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20213486360.5942.1751.3800.00630.00630.080.0863FF28.59491.59255468.8448681152100.583341119471639733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 08:00:04FORECAST20213486360.8243.4252.1200.00630.00630.070.0763FF28.82487.82255468.8448681152100.591976786720119733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 04:00:06FORECAST20213486360.8443.6452.2400.00630.00630.080.0863FF28.84487.84255468.8448681152100.592725671647539733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20213486362.1842.5352.3550000.070.07FF30.18482.18255468.8448681152100.642000927161099733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20213486361.4743.2552.360000.040.04FF29.47496.47255468.8448681152100.616128631852799733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20213486361.4743.2152.340000.050.05FF29.47499.47255468.8448681152100.616128631852799733415225DRYL
2021-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20213486361.1841.4951.3350000.040.04FF29.18492.18255468.8448681152100.605402757613469733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20213486360.742.1751.4350000.030.03FF28.7487.7255468.8448681152100.587476511792099733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 04:00:09FORECAST20213486360.6939.8150.250000.040.04FF28.69493.69255468.8448681152100.587100960642719733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20213486360.0840.6550.3650000.10.1FF28.08477.08255468.8448681152100.564054279276979733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20213486359.3140.2849.7950000.120.12FF27.31490.31255468.8448681152100.534658813151989733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20213486359.3140.2849.7950000.080.08FF27.31492.31255468.8448681152100.534658813151989733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20213486361.344.7530000.070.07FF29.3495.3255468.8448681152100.609851257815429733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 08:00:04FORECAST20213486361.7344.7453.2350000.080.08FF29.73492.73255468.8448681152100.625670163749939733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-07 04:00:05FORECAST20213486361.844.8453.320000.070.07FF29.8502.8255468.8448681152100.628226218885719733415225DRYL
2021-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20213486359.445.9652.680000.080.08FF27.4485.4255468.8448681152100.538107575165329733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST20213486360.6746.453.5350000.10.1FF28.67495.67255468.8448681152100.586349619516359733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20213486360.9646.4953.7250000.070.07FF28.96497.96255468.8448681152100.597211776229779733315222.5DRYL
2021-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20213486352.5243.8648.19000.010.060.07FF20.52480.52255468.8448681152100.285033978612279723315220DRYL
2021-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20213486345.6543.8344.74000.010.080.09FF13.65468.65255468.8448681152100.109161287082189713315217.5DRYL
2021-09-06 04:00:08FORECAST20213486343.4242.4442.93000.010.080.09FF11.42472.42255468.8448681152100.0740157708247649713315217.5DRYL