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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 1, 2021

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DAY 336 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/02/2021 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 55.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 32.41°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 43.91°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.357 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 23 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 411 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.45 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 243 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.82 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 51 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 3 D₂: 3 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-02 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	336	51	55.4	32.41004	43.90502	0	0	0.45	0.45	F	F	23.4	411.4	243	462.82371512226	0.35670497277362	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-09-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2021	336	51	45.23	45.23	45.23	0	0	0.45	0.45	F	F	13.23	401.23	244	463.33603098816	0.094407456126636	94	1	3	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-09-01 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.76	44.85	50.805	0.0008	0.0008	0.45	0.4508	F	F	24.76	412.76	244	463.33603098816	0.40487857919304	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-09-01 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.61	38.15	47.38	0.0047	0.0047	0.45	0.4547	F	F	24.61	412.61	244	463.33603098816	0.39947896130635	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-09-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	336	51	55.84	38.68	47.26	0.0014	0.0014	0.45	0.4514	F	F	23.84	411.84	244	463.33603098816	0.37208342261027	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-09-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	57.15	36.31	46.73	0.0016	0.0016	0.45	0.4516	F	F	25.15	409.15	243	462.82371512226	0.41900012199004	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.98	37.79	47.385	0.0018	0.0118	0.45	0.4618	F	F	24.98	418.98	243	462.82371512226	0.41283060336844	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-31 16:00:01	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.99	38.51	47.75	0.0018	0.0118	0.45	0.4618	F	F	24.99	418.99	243	462.82371512226	0.41319293667759	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-31 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.86	38.17	47.515	0.0042	0.0142	0.45	0.4642	F	F	24.86	418.86	243	462.82371512226	0.40848847938374	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.87	38.99	47.93	0.0018	0.0418	0.45	0.4918	F	F	24.87	418.87	243	462.82371512226	0.4088499021967	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-31 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.87	38.95	47.91	0.0018	0.0418	0.45	0.4918	F	F	24.87	418.87	243	462.82371512226	0.4088499021967	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	55.89	38.59	47.24	0.0025	0.0325	0.45	0.4825	F	F	23.89	411.89	243	462.82371512226	0.37384448787187	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	55.66	38.92	47.29	0.0023	0.0523	0.45	0.5023	F	F	23.66	423.66	243	462.82371512226	0.36576594299688	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.75	38.09	46.42	0.0018	0.0518	0.45	0.5018	F	F	22.75	422.75	243	462.82371512226	0.33441280927714	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.52	39.08	46.8	0.0018	0.0418	0.45	0.4918	F	F	22.52	423.52	243	462.82371512226	0.32665769173089	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.61	38.85	46.73	0.0027	0.0327	0.45	0.4827	F	F	22.61	420.61	243	462.82371512226	0.32968363035728	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.61	38.85	46.73	0.0027	0.0227	0.45	0.4727	F	F	22.61	421.61	243	462.82371512226	0.32968363035728	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	55.68	38.85	47.265	0.002	0.062	0.45	0.512	F	F	23.68	405.68	243	462.82371512226	0.36646612699263	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.87	39.07	47.97	0.0018	0.0318	0.45	0.4818	F	F	24.87	425.87	243	462.82371512226	0.4088499021967	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-29 16:00:10	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.56	38.82	46.69	0.0022	0.0222	0.45	0.4722	F	F	22.56	423.56	243	462.82371512226	0.32800116188968	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	59.66	39	49.33	0.0022	0.0222	0.45	0.4722	F	F	27.66	428.66	243	462.82371512226	0.51160299630788	94	3	3	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	55.14	39.61	47.375	0.0032	0.0132	0.45	0.4632	F	F	23.14	423.14	243	462.82371512226	0.34772411095934	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-29 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	336	51	59.32	39.63	49.475	0.0037	0.0137	0.45	0.4637	F	F	27.32	427.32	243	462.82371512226	0.49898410733284	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	58.5	41.1	49.8	0.0044	0.0044	0.45	0.4544	F	F	26.5	418.5	243	462.82371512226	0.4685789222783	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	59.24	40.45	49.845	0.0044	0.0144	0.46	0.4744	F	F	27.24	432.24	243	462.82371512226	0.49601463690381	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	59.89	39.78	49.835	0.0044	0.0144	0.46	0.4744	F	F	27.89	431.89	243	462.82371512226	0.52013349347736	94	3	3	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	62.13	40.43	51.28	0.0044	0.0144	0.46	0.4744	F	F	30.13	429.13	243	462.82371512226	0.60214667974858	94	3	3	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.75	40.54	47.645	0.0044	0.0044	0.46	0.4644	F	F	22.75	421.75	243	462.82371512226	0.33441280927714	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.14	40.11	48.125	0.0278	0.0278	0.45	0.4778	F	F	24.14	428.14	243	462.82371512226	0.38268867466125	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	61.69	38.83	50.26	0.0063	0.0063	0.43	0.4363	F	F	29.69	435.69	243	462.82371512226	0.58627296376031	94	3	3	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	61.99	39.54	50.765	0.0063	0.0063	0.44	0.4463	F	F	29.99	444.99	243	462.82371512226	0.59711292008223	94	3	3	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	62.28	39.54	50.91	0	0	0.44	0.44	F	F	30.28	447.28	243	462.82371512226	0.607521170439	94	3	3	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	59.09	41.22	50.155	0	0	0.44	0.44	F	F	27.09	439.09	243	462.82371512226	0.49044760428589	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	59.09	41.22	50.155	0	0	0.45	0.45	F	F	27.09	445.09	243	462.82371512226	0.49044760428589	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	336	51	59.09	41.22	50.155	0	0	0.45	0.45	F	F	27.09	445.09	243	462.82371512226	0.49044760428589	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	58.92	41.68	50.3	0	0.01	0.4	0.41	F	F	26.92	436.92	243	462.82371512226	0.48414060766299	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.62	40.49	48.555	0.0033	0.0133	0.49	0.5033	F	F	24.62	443.62	243	462.82371512226	0.39983835075396	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.57	40.52	48.545	0.0033	0.0133	0.5	0.5133	F	F	24.57	442.57	243	462.82371512226	0.39804225779414	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	55.64	39.9	47.77	0	0	0.51	0.51	F	F	23.64	446.64	243	462.82371512226	0.36506620570007	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.68	39.54	47.11	0	0	0.52	0.52	F	F	22.68	433.68	243	462.82371512226	0.33204487791751	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.72	39.67	47.195	0	0	0.5	0.5	F	F	22.72	440.72	243	462.82371512226	0.33339716834513	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.78	38.96	46.87	0	0	0.51	0.51	F	F	22.78	427.78	243	462.82371512226	0.33542966286114	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	336	51	55.56	38.73	47.145	0	0	0.53	0.53	F	F	23.56	447.56	243	462.82371512226	0.36227176610835	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	54.47	38.77	46.62	0	0	0.48	0.48	F	F	22.47	448.47	243	462.82371512226	0.32498150917603	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	56.06	43.1	49.58	0	0	0.5	0.5	F	F	24.06	445.06	243	462.82371512226	0.37985162566568	94	2	3	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	336	51	43.86	42.72	43.29	0	0	0.5	0.5	F	F	11.86	430.86	243	462.82371512226	0.074674145751102	94	1	3	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-08-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	336	51	43.86	42.96	43.41	0	0	0.52	0.52	F	F	11.86	434.86	243	462.82371512226	0.074674145751102	94	1	3	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L