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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 9, 2021

[ Sunday, August 8, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 10, 2021 ]

DAY 313 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/10/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.415
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 651

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 220
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 28

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-10 04:00:07OBSERVATION20213132862.6500440.6451.64502000.420.240.66FF30.65004650.65004220450.48677582001 00.4148362575476195 22525245DRYM
2021-08-10 00:00:02FORECAST20213132852.2852.2852.28000.420.240.66FF20.28640.28221451.0458830952800.106166717384539512525240DRYM
2021-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20213132864.5354.9259.725000.420.240.66FF32.53652.53221451.0458830952800.488789961355719522525245DRYM
2021-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20213132865.1244.4554.785000.420.240.66FF33.12653.12221451.0458830952800.512201780644569532525250DRYMH
2021-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20213132864.941.7953.345000.420.240.66FF32.9652.9221451.0458830952800.503472549056949532525250DRYMH
2021-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST2021313286543.0654.03000.360.240.6FF33652220450.4867758200100.507440839051799532525250DRYMH
2021-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20213132865.5145.3455.425000.380.240.62FF33.51662.51220450.4867758200100.52765932991829532525250DRYMH
2021-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20213132865.8245.9455.88000.380.240.62FF33.82662.82220450.4867758200100.539917586042679532525250DRYMH
2021-08-08 12:00:05FORECAST20213132865.7446.3256.03000.380.240.62FF33.74662.74220450.4867758200100.536757323435339532525250DRYMH
2021-08-08 08:00:03FORECAST20213132865.4246.3455.88000.390.240.63FF33.42657.42220450.4867758200100.524095048671219532525250DRYMH
2021-08-08 04:00:07FORECAST20213132865.4746.3255.895000.420.240.66FF33.47662.47220450.4867758200100.526075461295259532525250DRYMH
2021-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20213132862.6846.4154.545000.080.240.32FF30.68650.68220450.4867758200100.415998450113689522515222.5DRYL
2021-08-07 20:00:05FORECAST20213132865.846.3556.075000.260.240.5FF33.8664.8220450.4867758200100.539127748869189532525250DRYMH
2021-08-07 16:00:06FORECAST20213132866.6546.5156.58000.240.240.48FF34.65665.65220450.4867758200100.572520379673669532525250DRYMH
2021-08-07 12:00:05FORECAST20213132866.454756.725000.220.240.46FF34.45665.45220450.4867758200100.564700829560579532525250DRYMH
2021-08-07 08:00:06FORECAST20213132863.2547.0655.155000.220.240.46FF31.25661.25220450.4867758200100.43823820750149522525245DRYM
2021-08-07 04:00:07FORECAST20213132863.2547.0855.165000.230.240.47FF31.25657.25220450.4867758200100.43823820750149522525245DRYM
2021-08-07 00:00:05FORECAST20213132866.6948.1757.43000.230.040.27FF34.69657.69220450.4867758200100.574080979265689532525250DRYMH
2021-08-06 20:00:06FORECAST20213132867.8447.9457.89000.270.110.38FF35.84662.84220450.4867758200100.618359914292429532525250DRYMH
2021-08-06 16:00:06FORECAST20213132867.4345.9956.71000.340.110.45FF35.43661.43220450.4867758200100.602718180875879532525250DRYMH
2021-08-06 12:00:05FORECAST20213132866.3845.8856.13000.30.110.41FF34.38662.38220450.4867758200100.561957836161389532525250DRYMH
2021-08-06 08:00:06FORECAST20213132867.2745.9956.63000.250.180.43FF35.27666.27220450.4867758200100.596567456096929532525250DRYMH
2021-08-06 04:00:08FORECAST20213132867.2245.4356.325000.260.220.48FF35.22665.22220450.4867758200100.594640368932389532525250DRYMH
2021-08-06 00:00:06FORECAST20213132868.5246.1757.345000.190.280.47FF36.52654.52220450.4867758200100.6438703067442395325251100DRYVH
2021-08-05 20:00:06FORECAST20213132867.8944.2556.07000.210.310.52FF35.89669.89220450.4867758200100.620254854301259532525250DRYMH
2021-08-05 16:00:06FORECAST20213132867.4445.1456.29000.240.370.61FF35.44668.44220450.4867758200100.603101771766439532525250DRYMH
2021-08-05 12:00:06FORECAST20213132868.3444.1156.225000.240.370.61FF36.34669.34220450.4867758200100.6371745738414195325251100DRYVH
2021-08-05 08:00:06FORECAST20213132865.0743.9654.515000.190.250.44FF33.07661.07220450.4867758200100.510218227326629532525250DRYMH
2021-08-05 04:00:09FORECAST20213132865.0943.9654.525000.180.240.42FF33.09662.09220450.4867758200100.511011681730019532525250DRYMH
2021-08-05 00:00:06FORECAST20213132866.0143.8954.9500.00220.17220.240.4122FF34.01649.01220450.4867758200100.547412748263079532525250DRYMH
2021-08-04 20:00:06FORECAST20213132865.0143.0554.0300.00220.19220.270.4622FF33.01661.01220450.4867758200100.507837634033739532525250DRYMH
2021-08-04 16:00:06FORECAST20213132865.0143.0554.0300.00220.19220.270.4622FF33.01663.01220450.4867758200100.507837634033739532525250DRYMH
2021-08-04 12:00:06FORECAST20213132868.3144.656.455000.080.260.34FF36.31672.31220450.4867758200100.636054465925759532515150DRYMH
2021-08-04 08:00:06FORECAST20213132867.3145.2156.26000.140.30.44FF35.31660.31220450.4867758200100.598107442168919532525250DRYMH
2021-08-04 04:00:08FORECAST20213132867.2745.2756.27000.140.30.44FF35.27661.27220450.4867758200100.596567456096929532525250DRYMH
2021-08-04 00:00:06FORECAST20213132868.3846.8757.625000.070.220.29FF36.38654.38220450.4867758200100.638666226549939532515150DRYMH
2021-08-03 20:00:05FORECAST20213132869.1146.9758.04000.060.290.35FF37.11672.11220450.4867758200100.665498941617429532515150DRYMH
2021-08-03 16:00:06FORECAST20213132869.1546.9758.06000.060.320.38FF37.15672.15220450.4867758200100.666946581612979532515150DRYMH
2021-08-03 12:00:06FORECAST20213132865.9245.5155.715000.190.320.51FF33.92662.92220450.4867758200100.543864347875679532525250DRYMH
2021-08-03 08:00:06FORECAST20213132866.0945.7655.925000.190.390.58FF34.09654.09220450.4867758200100.550563715323299532525250DRYMH
2021-08-03 04:00:07FORECAST20213132866.0945.7355.91000.190.460.65FF34.09651.09220450.4867758200100.550563715323299532525250DRYMH
2021-08-03 00:00:05FORECAST20213132869.2447.9158.575000.020.60.62FF37.24654.24220450.4867758200100.670194668917189532515150DRYMH
2021-08-02 20:00:06FORECAST20213132864.8147.8556.3300.0570.1770.660.837FF32.81659.81220450.4867758200100.499900783060779532525250DRYMH
2021-08-02 16:00:06FORECAST20213132862.5947.8455.21500.02490.14490.670.8149FF30.59656.59220450.4867758200100.412509469126019522525245DRYM
2021-08-02 12:00:06FORECAST20213132859.3948.3753.88000.180.770.95FF27.39653.39220450.4867758200100.294792111219999522525245DRYM
2021-08-02 08:00:06FORECAST20213132848.8747.2648.065000.170.841.01FF16.87637.87220450.4867758200100.0562337648803289512525240DRYM
2021-08-02 04:00:07FORECAST20213132848.2847.2947.785000.170.861.03FF16.28638.28220450.4867758200100.0498726421582679512525240DRYM