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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 6, 2021

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DAY 310 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/07/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 57.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 49.00°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 53.15°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.257 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 25 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 661 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.20 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.20 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.24 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 217 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.80 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 25 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 45.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-07 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	310	25	57.30008	48.99992	53.15	0.19999999999993	0.19999999999993	0.04	0.23999999999993	F	F	25.30008	661.30008	217	448.79664964921	0.25676046100323	97	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	310	25	48.75	48.75	48.75	0.0028	0.0028	0.04	0.0428	F	F	16.75	652.75	218	449.36216721666	0.062026205644144	97	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	310	25	54.49	48.34	51.415	0.0668	0.0668	0.04	0.1068	F	F	22.49	658.49	218	449.36216721666	0.17262146656961	97	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.65	48.74	52.195	0.1399	0.1399	0.04	0.1799	F	F	23.65	659.65	218	449.36216721666	0.20499094302655	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	310	25	56.12	48.23	52.175	0.1777	0.1777	0.04	0.2177	F	F	24.12	660.12	218	449.36216721666	0.21906936912105	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.92	48.12	52.02	0.2393	0.2393	0.04	0.2793	F	F	23.92	647.92	217	448.79664964921	0.21301186805274	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.53	47.52	51.525	0.2557	0.2657	0.04	0.3057	F	F	23.53	662.53	217	448.79664964921	0.20148438479697	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.29	47.69	51.49	0.3193	0.3293	0.04	0.3693	F	F	23.29	662.29	217	448.79664964921	0.19457977698489	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.04	47.47	51.255	0.3209	0.3309	0.04	0.3709	F	F	23.04	662.04	217	448.79664964921	0.1875423675399	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	54.88	46.79	50.835	0.1974	0.2074	0.04	0.2474	F	F	22.88	660.88	217	448.79664964921	0.18312188374718	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	310	25	54.91	46.65	50.78	0.1864	0.1964	0.04	0.2364	F	F	22.91	657.91	217	448.79664964921	0.18394574724127	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	56.08	47.35	51.715	0.1876	0.1976	0.04	0.2376	F	F	24.08	646.08	217	448.79664964921	0.21785002033614	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.44	47.03	51.235	0.2173	0.2273	0.04	0.2673	F	F	23.44	659.44	217	448.79664964921	0.19887815989498	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.6	47.51	51.555	0.2162	0.2262	0.04	0.2662	F	F	23.6	659.6	217	448.79664964921	0.20352549819986	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	56.23	48.09	52.16	0.2051	0.2151	0.04	0.2551	F	F	24.23	660.23	217	448.79664964921	0.22244270404767	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.45	48.16	51.805	0.2538	0.2638	0.04	0.3038	F	F	23.45	656.45	217	448.79664964921	0.19916673506508	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.35	48.08	51.715	0.2447	0.2647	0.04	0.3047	F	F	23.35	657.35	217	448.79664964921	0.19629231753264	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.53	48.03	51.78	0.1695	0.1795	0.04	0.2195	F	F	23.53	638.53	217	448.79664964921	0.20148438479697	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.71	48.28	51.995	0.1778	0.1878	0.1	0.2878	F	F	23.71	655.71	217	448.79664964921	0.20675771459877	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	55.82	46.75	51.285	0.2147	0.2247	0.1	0.3247	F	F	23.82	655.82	217	448.79664964921	0.21002006535814	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	56.2	45.21	50.705	0.2152	0.2152	0.1	0.3152	F	F	24.2	657.2	217	448.79664964921	0.22151978256579	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.94	43.93	48.935	0.2959	0.2959	0.09	0.3859	F	F	21.94	650.94	217	448.79664964921	0.15847832016915	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.69	43.91	48.8	0.3415	0.3515	0.11	0.4615	F	F	21.69	647.69	217	448.79664964921	0.15230761774136	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.57	42.78	48.175	0.5305	0.5405	0.06	0.6005	F	F	21.57	639.57	217	448.79664964921	0.14940295188354	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	54.14	41.8	47.97	0.5887	0.5987	0.06	0.6587	F	F	22.14	651.14	217	448.79664964921	0.16353101967579	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.63	41.8	47.715	0.5927	0.6227	0.05	0.6727	F	F	21.63	649.63	217	448.79664964921	0.15085064349483	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	52.62	40.71	46.665	0.6526	0.7026	0.07	0.7726	F	F	20.62	653.62	217	448.79664964921	0.12771315500539	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	52.91	40.47	46.69	0.7203	0.7603	0.08	0.8403	F	F	20.91	651.91	217	448.79664964921	0.1340894005672	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	310	25	52.91	40.47	46.69	0.7203	0.7703	0.09	0.8603	F	F	20.91	652.91	217	448.79664964921	0.1340894005672	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	52.82	42.31	47.565	0.6531	0.8031	0.06	0.8631	F	F	20.82	637.82	217	448.79664964921	0.1320876502578	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.14	43.28	48.21	0.5471	0.6771	0.07	0.7471	F	F	21.14	650.14	217	448.79664964921	0.13929903222868	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.13	43.28	48.205	0.5471	0.7171	0.08	0.7971	F	F	21.13	651.13	217	448.79664964921	0.13906970978514	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.91	46.71	50.31	0.4985	0.5785	0.07	0.6485	F	F	21.91	649.91	217	448.79664964921	0.15772931935028	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.08	46.38	49.73	0.4104	0.5004	0.07	0.5704	F	F	21.08	642.08	217	448.79664964921	0.13792694240291	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2021	310	25	53.08	46.38	49.73	0.4104	0.5004	0.1	0.6004	F	F	21.08	646.08	217	448.79664964921	0.13792694240291	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	60.32	50.91	55.615	0.1742	0.2242	0.06	0.2842	F	F	28.32	650.32	217	448.79664964921	0.36644985112099	97	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-07-31 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	60.15	51.05	55.6	0.2052	0.2452	0.09	0.3352	F	F	28.15	655.15	217	448.79664964921	0.35985791054869	97	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-07-31 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	60.19	51.06	55.625	0.2052	0.2452	0.15	0.3952	F	F	28.19	658.19	217	448.79664964921	0.36140529588028	97	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-07-31 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	61.54	50.36	55.95	0.0382	0.4882	0.27	0.7582	F	F	29.54	654.54	217	448.79664964921	0.41480681085475	97	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-07-31 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	310	25	60.16	49.33	54.745	0.1555	0.5255	0.33	0.8555	F	F	28.16	645.16	217	448.79664964921	0.36024454286348	97	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-07-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	310	25	60.13	49.33	54.73	0.1555	0.5555	0.3	0.8555	F	F	28.13	649.13	217	448.79664964921	0.3590850761123	97	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-07-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	51.97	45.4	48.685	0.2598	0.3598	0.21	0.5698	F	F	19.97	623.97	217	448.79664964921	0.1141935154086	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-07-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	52.98	46.6	49.79	0.2405	0.3805	0.17	0.5505	F	F	20.98	644.98	217	448.79664964921	0.13566061401864	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-07-30 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	310	25	51.81	46.62	49.215	0.2154	0.3554	0.15	0.5054	F	F	19.81	643.81	217	448.79664964921	0.1110274540519	97	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-07-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	46.11	39.67	42.89	0.066	0.636	0.21	0.846	F	F	14.11	618.11	217	448.79664964921	0.035008418226333	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-07-30 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	310	25	49.12	45.81	47.465	0.0258	0.5458	0.23	0.7758	F	F	17.12	625.12	217	448.79664964921	0.066853770779245	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-07-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	310	25	49.11	48.38	48.745	0.0172	0.5372	0.2	0.7372	F	F	17.11	624.11	217	448.79664964921	0.066719593593393	97	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H