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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 4, 2021

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DAY 308 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/05/2021 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 75.60°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 60.09°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 67.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.894 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 44 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 675 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.04 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 215 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.66 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 23 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-05 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2021	308	23	75.59996	60.09008	67.84502	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	43.59996	674.59996	215	447.65914715223	0.89355065586017	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	308	23	61.3	61.3	61.3	0.0001	0.0001	0.04	0.0401	F	F	29.3	660.3	216	448.22897902679	0.38649417162313	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	308	23	75.22	60.46	67.84	0.0003	0.0003	0.04	0.0403	F	F	43.22	674.22	216	448.22897902679	0.88586420340912	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.95	60.49	66.22	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	39.95	670.95	216	448.22897902679	0.80339646390523	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.82	58.28	65.55	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	40.82	671.82	216	448.22897902679	0.82822426224644	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-04 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.94	58.08	65.51	0.0004	0.0004	0.04	0.0404	F	F	40.94	652.94	215	447.65914715223	0.8314848386225	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.41	57.51	64.96	0	0.06	0.04	0.1	F	F	40.41	670.41	215	447.65914715223	0.8167832072389	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.2	57.28	64.74	0	0.06	0.04	0.1	F	F	40.2	670.2	215	447.65914715223	0.81074372405604	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.29	57.72	65.005	0.0002	0.0602	0.04	0.1002	F	F	40.29	670.29	215	447.65914715223	0.81334690122225	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-03 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.67	56.98	64.325	0.0012	0.0512	0.04	0.0912	F	F	39.67	665.67	215	447.65914715223	0.79496597539177	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.13	57.95	65.04	0	0.07	0.04	0.11	F	F	40.13	667.13	215	447.65914715223	0.80870369144258	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.37	58.34	65.355	0	0.02	0.04	0.06	F	F	40.37	656.37	215	447.65914715223	0.8156421712163	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.82	58.8	65.81	0	0.02	0.04	0.06	F	F	40.82	665.82	215	447.65914715223	0.82822426224644	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-02 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	73.12	59.04	66.08	0.0074	0.0174	0.04	0.0574	F	F	41.12	666.12	215	447.65914715223	0.83630075674427	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	308	23	74.68	60.25	67.465	0.0154	0.0454	0.04	0.0854	F	F	42.68	668.68	215	447.65914715223	0.87427467038146	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	308	23	74.35	59.91	67.13	0.0292	0.0692	0.04	0.1092	F	F	42.35	667.35	215	447.65914715223	0.86680197121429	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	308	23	75.08	60.75	67.915	0.0352	0.0852	0.04	0.1252	F	F	43.08	669.08	215	447.65914715223	0.88293502918721	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	75.53	60.18	67.855	0.075	0.095	0.04	0.135	F	F	43.53	657.53	215	447.65914715223	0.89216411431177	96	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-08-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	308	23	76.76	60.03	68.395	0.0629	0.0829	0.05	0.1329	F	F	44.76	669.76	215	447.65914715223	0.91469962563513	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	308	23	77.23	59.97	68.6	0.0944	0.1244	0.05	0.1744	F	F	45.23	671.23	215	447.65914715223	0.92231191373139	96	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-08-01 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	75.92	59.26	67.59	0.0362	0.0562	0.05	0.1062	F	F	43.92	669.92	215	447.65914715223	0.89973001316107	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.55	59.87	65.71	0.0464	0.0664	0.05	0.1164	F	F	39.55	664.55	215	447.65914715223	0.79128823629731	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2021	308	23	76.34	59.86	68.1	0.0483	0.0783	0.07	0.1483	F	F	44.34	669.34	215	447.65914715223	0.90743778184394	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	75.82	58.99	67.405	0.033	0.043	0.05	0.093	F	F	43.82	662.82	215	447.65914715223	0.89782789875314	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-31 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	76.6	58.89	67.745	0.0339	0.0439	0.08	0.1239	F	F	44.6	665.6	215	447.65914715223	0.91198505829929	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-31 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	76.6	59.53	68.065	0.0339	0.0439	0.14	0.1839	F	F	44.6	668.6	215	447.65914715223	0.91198505829929	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-31 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	308	23	74.77	58.48	66.625	0.0718	0.1518	0.19	0.3418	F	F	42.77	665.77	215	447.65914715223	0.87626106903695	96	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-07-31 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.01	58.09	64.55	0.077	0.167	0.24	0.407	F	F	39.01	657.01	215	447.65914715223	0.77426499839807	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	308	23	72.22	56.53	64.375	0.1072	0.2072	0.2	0.4072	F	F	40.22	661.22	215	447.65914715223	0.81132412683947	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	70.84	56.66	63.75	0.0353	0.0653	0.18	0.2453	F	F	38.84	650.84	215	447.65914715223	0.76874786487386	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	74.21	56.39	65.3	0.0988	0.1288	0.14	0.2688	F	F	42.21	665.21	215	447.65914715223	0.86354146794303	96	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	308	23	74.3	56.24	65.27	0.0988	0.1288	0.12	0.2488	F	F	42.3	665.3	215	447.65914715223	0.86564369705825	96	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	69.38	53.38	61.38	0.0273	0.1773	0.06	0.2373	F	F	37.38	653.38	215	447.65914715223	0.71840826430043	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	69.61	53.87	61.74	0.0273	0.2073	0.05	0.2573	F	F	37.61	651.61	215	447.65914715223	0.72667562912416	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	308	23	69.34	53.84	61.59	0.0273	0.2073	0.02	0.2273	F	F	37.34	651.34	215	447.65914715223	0.71695825902523	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	68.65	53.68	61.165	0.056	0.076	0.17	0.246	F	F	36.65	640.65	215	447.65914715223	0.69139956938552	96	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	70.3	53.27	61.785	0.0399	0.0999	0.55	0.6499	F	F	38.3	644.3	215	447.65914715223	0.75073435718409	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-29 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	69.56	53.23	61.395	0.0399	0.0999	0.58	0.6799	F	F	37.56	644.56	215	447.65914715223	0.72488863394904	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-29 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	68.18	53.5	60.84	0.0202	0.2002	0.48	0.6802	F	F	36.18	641.18	215	447.65914715223	0.67343268368332	96	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.26	53.2	62.23	0.0203	0.0303	0.09	0.1203	F	F	39.26	660.26	215	447.65914715223	0.78224176681884	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.23	53.18	62.205	0.0203	0.0303	0.08	0.1103	F	F	39.23	657.23	215	447.65914715223	0.78129321121138	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.66	51.4	61.53	0.002	0.212	0.05	0.262	F	F	39.66	641.66	215	447.65914715223	0.79466097337586	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.15	48.57	59.86	0	0.31	0.12	0.43	F	F	39.15	652.15	215	447.65914715223	0.77875215685328	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	71.12	48.64	59.88	0	0.31	0.09	0.4	F	F	39.12	654.12	215	447.65914715223	0.77779493301415	96	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	65.69	52.18	58.935	0	0	0.09	0.09	F	F	33.69	657.69	215	447.65914715223	0.57234882376757	96	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-07-28 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	308	23	53.99	52.62	53.305	0	0	0.08	0.08	F	F	21.99	645.99	215	447.65914715223	0.14170626730542	96	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-07-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	308	23	53.98	53.24	53.61	0	0	0.08	0.08	F	F	21.98	645.98	215	447.65914715223	0.14146549298702	96	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L