MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 29, 2021

[ Saturday, August 28, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, August 30, 2021 ]

DAY 333 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/30/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.657
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 508

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 240
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-30 04:00:07OBSERVATION20213334865.6648.0399856.84999000.020.430.45FF33.66507.66240461.27503476881 00.6569410611078497 33415225DRYL
2021-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20213334849.2449.2449.2400.00070.02070.430.4507FF17.24491.24241461.7932244527400.105213641791479713315217.5DRYL
2021-08-29 12:00:01FORECAST20213334867.1448.9558.04500.00460.02460.430.4546FF35.14509.14241461.7932244527400.710006764927479743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-29 08:00:01FORECAST20213334865.0949.3357.2100.00290.02290.430.4529FF33.09507.09241461.7932244527400.635568929649929733415225DRYL
2021-08-29 04:00:06FORECAST20213334865.3249.2957.305000.020.430.45FF33.32507.32241461.7932244527400.644248010032529733415225DRYL
2021-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20213334865.5449.3457.4400.00090.02090.430.4509FF33.54496.54240461.2750347688100.652480454363029733315222.5DRYL
2021-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20213334865.2349.0857.155000.030.430.46FF33.23507.23240461.2750347688100.640860451052929733415225DRYL
2021-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20213334865.5249.3557.435000.030.430.46FF33.52507.52240461.2750347688100.651734943600679733415225DRYL
2021-08-28 12:00:03FORECAST20213334865.1549.3657.255000.030.430.46FF33.15507.15240461.2750347688100.637839956352139733415225DRYL
2021-08-28 08:00:02FORECAST20213334865.0549.4357.24000.030.430.46FF33.05507.05240461.2750347688100.634052259122949733415225DRYL
2021-08-28 04:00:07FORECAST20213334865.1249.4557.285000.020.430.45FF33.12506.12240461.2750347688100.636705043415329733415225DRYL
2021-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20213334864.3349.5956.960000.430.43FF32.33508.33240461.2750347688100.606415144792899733415225DRYL
2021-08-27 20:00:02FORECAST20213334863.7549.0856.415000.010.430.44FF31.75513.75240461.2750347688100.583747759398119733415225DRYL
2021-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST20213334862.748.8955.795000.010.430.44FF30.7512.7240461.2750347688100.542046519488499733415225DRYL
2021-08-27 12:00:01FORECAST20213334862.9848.6455.81000.010.430.44FF30.98512.98240461.2750347688100.553231808406139733415225DRYL
2021-08-27 08:00:01FORECAST20213334863.3948.4655.925000.020.430.45FF31.39514.39240461.2750347688100.569531721477599733415225DRYL
2021-08-27 04:00:06FORECAST20213334863.3948.4655.925000.020.430.45FF31.39514.39240461.2750347688100.569531721477599733415225DRYL
2021-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20213334863.7748.9456.355000.050.350.4FF31.77507.77240461.2750347688100.584534516138799733415225DRYL
2021-08-26 20:00:01FORECAST20213334865.7449.4157.575000.040.450.49FF33.74516.74240461.2750347688100.659902748346689733415225DRYL
2021-08-26 16:00:01FORECAST20213334865.7948.9257.355000.050.450.5FF33.79516.79240461.2750347688100.661748822254059733415225DRYL
2021-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20213334866.7448.557.62000.060.450.51FF34.74516.74240461.2750347688100.696044915119479733415225DRYL
2021-08-26 08:00:01FORECAST20213334861.6148.2354.92000.070.450.52FF29.61509.61240461.2750347688100.498267392501689723415222.5DRYL
2021-08-26 04:00:06FORECAST20213334866.9448.1757.555000.040.460.5FF34.94513.94240461.2750347688100.703063347493339743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-26 00:00:03FORECAST20213334867.1848.3857.78000.050.460.51FF35.18500.18240461.2750347688100.711386270385889743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-25 20:00:04FORECAST20213334867.7548.6858.215000.050.480.53FF35.75517.75240461.2750347688100.730700681908579743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-25 16:00:03FORECAST20213334867.5349.6458.585000.050.430.48FF35.53519.53240461.2750347688100.723323222473899743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-25 12:00:02FORECAST20213334867.4949.3458.415000.050.450.5FF35.49515.49240461.2750347688100.721971315153839743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20213334864.449.456.9000.030.470.5FF32.4509.4240461.2750347688100.60912826777579733415225DRYL
2021-08-25 04:00:03FORECAST20213334867.4950.0158.75000.060.460.52FF35.49513.49240461.2750347688100.721971315153839743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20213334867.5550.7659.155000.050.470.52FF35.55506.55240461.2750347688100.723997967479119743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-24 20:00:02FORECAST20213334867.5550.8159.18000.080.520.6FF35.55519.55240461.2750347688100.723997967479119743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20213334868.1950.7259.455000.090.480.57FF36.19520.19240461.2750347688100.745153847606919743415155DRYH
2021-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20213334872.9351.6862.305000.10.480.58FF40.93521.93240461.2750347688100.8723662708734897534251120DRYVH
2021-08-24 08:03:04FORECAST20213334872.9351.6762.3000.120.470.59FF40.93510.93240461.2750347688100.8723662708734897534251120DRYVH
2021-08-24 04:13:01FORECAST20213334872.8751.3662.115000.130.470.6FF40.87519.87240461.2750347688100.8710965096670297534251120DRYVH
2021-08-24 00:07:45FORECAST20213334867.0351.8459.435000.080.450.53FF35.03514.03240461.2750347688100.706197289159119743415227.5DRYL
2021-08-23 20:05:02FORECAST20213334870.4651.9261.19000.030.420.45FF38.46530.46240461.2750347688100.812819002181739743415155DRYH
2021-08-23 16:00:03FORECAST20213334870.4551.9261.185000.020.430.45FF38.45532.45240461.2750347688100.812547567535769743415155DRYH
2021-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20213334870.7450.5160.625000.030.410.44FF38.74530.74240461.2750347688100.820320455837449743415155DRYH
2021-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20213334870.4451.1760.805000.030.380.41FF38.44523.44240461.2750347688100.812275890294549743415155DRYH
2021-08-23 04:00:07FORECAST20213334870.4451.1760.805000.030.380.41FF38.44534.44240461.2750347688100.812275890294549743415155DRYH
2021-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20213334871.7153.6962.7000.050.390.44FF39.71527.71240461.2750347688100.844823905990739743415155DRYH
2021-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20213334871.8553.0662.455000.050.420.47FF39.85534.85240461.2750347688100.848169613598999743415155DRYH
2021-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20213334871.8553.0662.455000.050.420.47FF39.85535.85240461.2750347688100.848169613598999743415155DRYH
2021-08-22 12:00:02FORECAST20213334866.5155.2960.9000.010.390.4FF34.51535.51240461.2750347688100.687883670163349733415225DRYL
2021-08-22 08:00:03FORECAST20213334854.3753.2653.815000.010.410.42FF22.37517.37240461.2750347688100.231296549462589713415220DRYL
2021-08-22 04:00:09FORECAST20213334855.7253.9354.825000.010.410.42FF23.72525.72240461.2750347688100.274785409518799723415222.5DRYL