MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 23, 2021

[ Sunday, August 22, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 24, 2021 ]

DAY 327 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/24/2021 04:06:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.157
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 524

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 234
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 42

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-24 04:06:05OBSERVATION20213274251.1100634.4342.77003000.040.930.97FF19.11006524.11006234458.12420256731 00.1569632241385594 13415220DRYL
2021-08-24 00:00:25FORECAST20213274240.6640.6640.66000.040.930.97FF8.66513.66235458.6543426933800.0222193728056629413415220DRYL
2021-08-23 12:00:01FORECAST20213274252.9742.9447.95500.00430.04430.930.9743FF20.97525.97235458.6543426933800.203571615665949413415220DRYL
2021-08-23 08:00:01FORECAST20213274254.0935.1744.6300.00070.04070.930.9707FF22.09527.09235458.6543426933800.235232936679569413415220DRYL
2021-08-23 04:00:06FORECAST20213274253.6335.6244.62500.00270.04270.930.9727FF21.63526.63235458.6543426933800.221911935741569413415220DRYL
2021-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20213274253.5336.5145.0200.0110.0510.930.981FF21.53521.53234458.1242025673100.219074038334379413415220DRYL
2021-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20213274253.8435.8444.8400.01480.07480.931.0048FF21.84530.84234458.1242025673100.227939222730859413415220DRYL
2021-08-22 16:00:01FORECAST20213274254.5438.6746.60500.00830.06830.930.9983FF22.54531.54234458.1242025673100.248679852135839413415220DRYL
2021-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20213274255.2939.2147.2500.00730.06730.930.9973FF23.29532.29234458.1242025673100.271969123971629423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20213274255.8238.8247.3200.0070.0770.931.007FF23.82532.82234458.1242025673100.289055793648649423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-22 04:00:07FORECAST20213274255.9638.7947.37500.00380.08380.931.0138FF23.96533.96234458.1242025673100.293652036389689423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20213274255.9239.1947.55500.00020.05020.930.9802FF23.92531.92234458.1242025673100.292335379336119423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20213274256.2239.1747.69500.00110.05110.930.9811FF24.22540.22234458.1242025673100.302276373284749423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-21 16:00:01FORECAST20213274255.8738.847.33500.00040.03040.930.9604FF23.87540.87234458.1242025673100.290693425612349423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-21 12:00:01FORECAST20213274255.6338.6447.13500.00020.03020.930.9602FF23.63540.63234458.1242025673100.282872660451599423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20213274257.0438.9547.99500.00020.03020.930.9602FF25.04545.04234458.1242025673100.330188980099219423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-21 04:00:06FORECAST20213274256.7839.1247.95000.040.930.97FF24.78545.78234458.1242025673100.321226122653359423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20213274257.139.0948.095000.050.870.92FF25.1541.1234458.1242025673100.332271477102489423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20213274259.338.9149.105000.060.90.96FF27.3558.3234458.1242025673100.41172139553629423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20213274259.8139.149.45500.00020.09020.90.9902FF27.81559.81234458.1242025673100.430808988948339423425245DRYM
2021-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20213274259.0638.9649.01000.060.90.96FF27.06559.06234458.1242025673100.402807888771329423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20213274255.8939.7547.82000.030.920.95FF23.89551.89234458.1242025673100.291349689951479423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-20 04:00:05FORECAST20213274260.0639.1749.61500.00050.07050.90.9705FF28.06553.06234458.1242025673100.440227951595089423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20213274258.6139.394900.0010.1010.921.021FF26.61540.61234458.1242025673100.386233856560799423425245DRYM
2021-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20213274260.4137.8649.13500.00040.11040.941.0504FF28.41557.41234458.1242025673100.453470340375899423425245DRYM
2021-08-19 16:00:02FORECAST20213274260.6440.4750.555000.110.951.06FF28.64557.64234458.1242025673100.462201678376039423425245DRYM
2021-08-19 12:00:05FORECAST20213274259.5740.5350.05000.110.931.04FF27.57554.57234458.1242025673100.421803590631359423425245DRYM
2021-08-19 08:00:06FORECAST20213274256.9341.2649.095000.130.921.05FF24.93549.93234458.1242025673100.326384727691239423425245DRYM
2021-08-19 04:00:08FORECAST20213274257.9842.4450.21000.160.941.1FF25.98555.98234458.1242025673100.363380780103229423425245DRYM
2021-08-19 00:00:03FORECAST20213274259.1842.1450.66000.160.961.12FF27.18545.18234458.1242025673100.407258640171359423425245DRYM
2021-08-18 20:00:06FORECAST20213274256.9237.5547.235000.110.971.08FF24.92558.92234458.1242025673100.326039772207859423425245DRYM
2021-08-18 16:00:05FORECAST20213274256.2941.4548.87000.110.991.1FF24.29561.29234458.1242025673100.304617565178379423425245DRYM
2021-08-18 12:00:06FORECAST20213274260.3741.0150.69000.080.971.05FF28.37563.37234458.1242025673100.451954019786659423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-18 08:00:06FORECAST20213274255.740.6448.17000.080.971.05FF23.7553.7234458.1242025673100.285143264296059423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-18 04:00:10FORECAST20213274259.6440.6450.14000.080.961.04FF27.64566.64234458.1242025673100.424426163332249423415222.5DRYL
2021-08-18 00:00:06FORECAST20213274259.1338.7248.92500.00570.13570.70.8357FF27.13562.13234458.1242025673100.405402669783079423425245DRYM
2021-08-17 20:00:07FORECAST20213274257.6239.5848.600.00570.13570.760.8957FF25.62567.62234458.1242025673100.350531040497669423425245DRYM
2021-08-17 16:00:06FORECAST20213274257.5839.5848.5800.00550.12550.760.8855FF25.58569.58234458.1242025673100.349113470490989423425245DRYM
2021-08-17 12:00:07FORECAST20213274257.4639.1148.28500.00210.10210.690.7921FF25.46570.46234458.1242025673100.344873437386259423425245DRYM
2021-08-17 08:00:06FORECAST20213274257.4339.1148.2700.00210.10210.680.7821FF25.43556.43234458.1242025673100.343816439182979423425245DRYM
2021-08-17 04:00:11FORECAST20213274256.6939.1547.9200.00210.10210.70.8021FF24.69569.69234458.1242025673100.318147341255269423425245DRYM
2021-08-17 00:00:06FORECAST20213274245.0935.9140.500.01080.36080.721.0808FF13.09538.09234458.1242025673100.0565779700401699413425240DRYM
2021-08-16 20:00:06FORECAST20213274245.135.940.500.01080.36080.751.1108FF13.1558.1234458.1242025673100.056687254609039413425240DRYM
2021-08-16 16:00:06FORECAST20213274248.2737.4942.8800.00420.36420.731.0942FF16.27553.27234458.1242025673100.100427019609459413425240DRYM
2021-08-16 12:00:06FORECAST20213274243.1938.8441.01500.03970.13970.720.8597FF11.19559.19234458.1242025673100.0386430371838159413425240DRYM
2021-08-16 08:00:06FORECAST20213274242.1741.441.78500.04190.11190.710.8219FF10.17553.17234458.1242025673100.0311119704111849413425240DRYM
2021-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST20213274242.1941.8442.01500.03350.10350.70.8035FF10.19554.19234458.1242025673100.0312470531723949413425240DRYM